ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Racecourse Ground
Referee: O. Langford
Wrexham
Match Timeline
Middlesbrough
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
T. Conway
Middlesbrough
28'
J. Windass
Wrexham
41'
S. Smith · Assist: I. Kabore
Wrexham
44'
D. Strelec · Assist: M. Targett
Middlesbrough
🔄
46'
A. Browne ↔ R. McGree
Middlesbrough
🔄
62'
G. Dobson ↔ B. Sheaf
Wrexham
🔄
63'
O. Rathbone ↔ N. Broadhead
Wrexham
🔄
71'
D. Strelec ↔ J. Sarmiento
Middlesbrough
🔄
71'
M. Whittaker ↔ L. Castledine
Middlesbrough
🔄
73'
I. Kabore ↔ R. Longman
Wrexham
🔄
73'
D. Scarr ↔ K. Moore
Wrexham
🔄
83'
M. James ↔ D. Keillor-Dunn
Wrexham
🔄
87'
L. Ayling ↔ M. K. Sene
Middlesbrough

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Wrexham Win 31.8%
Draw 0%
Middlesbrough Win 68.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Wrexham1.33
Middlesbrough1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Wrexham Wrexham
WWDLW
73 GF / 70 GA
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
WLDWL
71 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
31
BTTS Yes
26
24
Over 2.5
25
3.79
Shots on Goal
4.96

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Wrexham Wrexham 48 matches
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 46 matches
Wrexham Statistic Middlesbrough
20 Wins 22
14 Draws 13
14 Losses 11
73 Goals For 71
70 Goals Against 48
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
31 BTTS Yes 26
39 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 25
16 Over 3.5 14
13 Clean Sheets 13
6 Failed To Score 11
3.79 Shots On Goal 4.96
11.44 Total Shots 16.04
4.67 Corners 6.8
47.6% Ball Possession 59.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Middlesbrough. Wrexham have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Wrexham expected to line up in 3-5-1-1 and Middlesbrough in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Middlesbrough having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Wrexham Analysis

Wrexham sit 6 with 70 points after 45 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 19 wins, 13 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 67:63 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Windass (15 goals), K. Moore (11 goals), N. Broadhead (7 goals), with creative support from L. O'Brien (6 assists), I. Kabore (6 assists), J. Windass (5 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 10 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Middlesbrough Analysis

Middlesbrough arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 79 points after 45 matches. The record of 22 wins, 13 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 70:45 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Whittaker (14 goals), Tommy Conway (12 goals), D. Strelec (7 goals), with creative support from M. Whittaker (7 assists), H. Hackney (7 assists), Tommy Conway (5 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Wrexham won 0 times, Middlesbrough won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Wrexham's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Wrexham 3-5-1-1 / Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Wrexham wins 0, draws 2, Middlesbrough wins 0
Stats
Wrexham Wrexham
Middlesbrough Middlesbrough
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 3
11 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 3
48% Ball Possession 52%
20 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Goal 5
5 Shots off Goal 4
7 Blocked Shots 2
10 Shots insidebox 8
10 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 6
449 Total passes 489
368 Passes accurate 411
1.70 expected_goals 2.12
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Wrexham
Formation
Middlesbrough
D. Ward
D. Ward
D. Hyam
D. Hyam
D. Scarr
D. Scarr
C. Doyle
C. Doyle
I. Kabore
🎯
I. Kabore
M. James
M. James
G. Dobson
G. Dobson
G. Thomason
G. Thomason
J. Windass
J. Windass
O. Rathbone
O. Rathbone
S. Smith
S. Smith
S. Brynn
S. Brynn
L. Ayling
L. Ayling
D. Fry
D. Fry
A. Malanda
A. Malanda
C. Brittain
C. Brittain
A. Morris
A. Morris
A. Browne
A. Browne
M. Targett
🎯
M. Targett
M. Whittaker
M. Whittaker
T. Conway
T. Conway
D. Strelec
D. Strelec
Wrexham 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
21
D. Ward
G
5
D. Hyam
D
24
D. Scarr
↓ 73'
D
2
C. Doyle
D
12
I. Kabore
🎯 41' ↓ 73'
M
37
M. James
↓ 83'
M
15
G. Dobson
↓ 62'
M
14
G. Thomason
M
10
J. Windass
⚽ 28'
F
20
O. Rathbone
↓ 63'
F
28
S. Smith
⚽ 41'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Okonkwo
G
33
N. Broadhead
↑ 63'
F
18
B. Sheaf
↑ 62'
M
27
L. O'Brien
M
13
L. Cacace
D
47
R. Longman
↑ 73'
M
19
K. Moore
↑ 73'
F
7
D. Keillor-Dunn
↑ 83'
M
4
M. Cleworth
D
Middlesbrough 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
31
S. Brynn
G
12
L. Ayling
↓ 87'
D
6
D. Fry
D
29
A. Malanda
D
2
C. Brittain
M
18
A. Morris
M
16
A. Browne
↓ 46'
M
3
M. Targett
🎯 44'
M
11
M. Whittaker
↓ 71'
F
9
T. Conway
⚽ 4'
F
13
D. Strelec
⚽ 44' ↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
32
J. Wildsmith
G
25
G. Edmundson
D
45
J. Sarmiento
↑ 71'
M
8
R. McGree
↑ 46'
M
27
S. Hansen
F
14
A. Gilbert
F
20
M. K. Sene
↑ 87'
F
22
S. Silvera
F
23
L. Castledine
↑ 71'
M
Last matches: Wrexham
18.07.26
Fri
Wrexham
Manchester United
1
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Wrexham
Wisla Krakow
0
0
D
26.04.26
Cha
Wrexham
Coventry
1
3
L
21.04.26
Cha
Wrexham
Oxford United
1
0
W
18.04.26
Cha
Wrexham
Stoke City
2
0
W
12.04.26
Cha
Wrexham
Birmingham
0
2
L
07.04.26
Cha
Wrexham
Southampton
1
5
L
03.04.26
Cha
Wrexham
West Brom
2
2
D
21.03.26
Cha
Wrexham
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
17.03.26
Cha
Wrexham
Watford
1
3
L
13.03.26
Cha
Wrexham
Swansea
2
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Wrexham
Hull City
1
2
L
07.03.26
FA
Wrexham
Chelsea
2
4
L
28.02.26
Cha
Wrexham
Charlton
1
0
W
24.02.26
Cha
Wrexham
Portsmouth
2
1
W
21.02.26
Cha
Wrexham
Ipswich
5
3
W
17.02.26
Cha
Wrexham
Bristol City
2
2
D
13.02.26
FA
Wrexham
Ipswich
1
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Wrexham
Millwall
0
2
L
31.01.26
Cha
Wrexham
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
Last matches: Middlesbrough
18.07.26
Fri
Middlesbrough
Celtic
1
1
D
23.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
12.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
1
2
L
09.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
0
0
D
25.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Watford
5
1
W
22.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Wednesday
1
0
W
19.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
2
D
11.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Portsmouth
0
1
L
06.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Swansea
2
2
D
03.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Millwall
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
14.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
1
1
D
11.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
0
1
L
08.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
4
0
W
02.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
21.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
0
0
D
16.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
1
3
L
09.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
31.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Norwich
1
0
W
H2H: Wrexham vs Middlesbrough
02.05.26
H2H
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
25.10.25
H2H
Middlesbrough
Wrexham
1
1
D
Last matches: Wrexham
18.04.26
Cha
Wrexham
Stoke City
2
0
W
07.04.26
Cha
Wrexham
Southampton
1
5
L
13.03.26
Cha
Wrexham
Swansea
2
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Wrexham
Hull City
1
2
L
07.03.26
FA
Wrexham
Chelsea
2
4
L
24.02.26
Cha
Wrexham
Portsmouth
2
1
W
21.02.26
Cha
Wrexham
Ipswich
5
3
W
13.02.26
FA
Wrexham
Ipswich
1
0
W
07.02.26
Cha
Wrexham
Millwall
0
2
L
20.01.26
Cha
Wrexham
Leicester
1
1
D
17.01.26
Cha
Wrexham
Norwich
1
2
L
09.01.26
FA
Wrexham
Nottingham Forest
3
3
D
29.12.25
Cha
Wrexham
Preston
2
1
W
26.12.25
Cha
Wrexham
Sheffield Utd
5
3
W
13.12.25
Cha
Wrexham
Watford
2
2
D
29.11.25
Cha
Wrexham
Blackburn
1
1
D
26.11.25
Cha
Wrexham
Bristol City
2
0
W
08.11.25
Cha
Wrexham
Charlton
1
0
W
31.10.25
Cha
Wrexham
Coventry
3
2
W
22.10.25
Cha
Wrexham
Oxford United
1
0
W
H2H at home: Wrexham
02.05.26
H2H
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
2
2
D
Last matches: Middlesbrough
18.07.26
Fri
Middlesbrough
Celtic
1
1
D
23.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
0
1
L
12.05.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Southampton
1
2
L
19.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Ipswich
2
2
D
06.04.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Swansea
2
2
D
21.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Blackburn
0
0
D
08.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
QPR
4
0
W
02.03.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Birmingham
3
1
W
16.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Coventry
1
3
L
09.02.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Sheffield Utd
2
1
W
21.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Stoke City
2
1
W
16.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
West Brom
3
2
W
10.01.26
FA
Middlesbrough
Fulham
1
3
L
01.01.26
Cha
Middlesbrough
Derby
0
1
L
20.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Bristol City
0
2
L
09.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Charlton
2
1
W
05.12.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Hull City
4
1
W
22.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Oxford United
1
1
D
04.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Leicester
1
1
D
01.11.25
Cha
Middlesbrough
Watford
0
3
L
H2H away: Middlesbrough
02.05.26
H2H
Wrexham
Middlesbrough
2
2
D

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation