ENGLAND NATIONAL LEAGUE
15.09.2026 18:45
Sussex Transport Community Stadium

Worthing vs AFC Hornchurch Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.3%
Odds 2.90
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.3%
2.90
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.57
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Worthing Win 37.2%
Draw 12.5%
AFC Hornchurch Win 50.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Worthing1.6
AFC Hornchurch1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Worthing Worthing
WWDLW
26 GF / 19 GA
AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch
WLDWL
26 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.86
Average Goals Scored
1.73
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.2
10
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Worthing Worthing 14 matches
AFC Hornchurch AFC Hornchurch 15 matches
Worthing Statistic AFC Hornchurch
6 Wins 9
5 Draws 2
3 Losses 4
26 Goals For 26
19 Goals Against 18
1.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.2
10 BTTS Yes 7
12 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 6
0 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by AFC Hornchurch's more proactive style and Worthing's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AFC Hornchurch. AFC Hornchurch carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 12 points while Worthing sit 16 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward AFC Hornchurch having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Worthing have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Worthing Analysis

Worthing approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 7 points from 6 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 11:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

AFC Hornchurch Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 12 points from 6 games, AFC Hornchurch bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 10:8, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Worthing won 2 times, AFC Hornchurch won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:15 from Worthing's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
H2H summary: Worthing wins 2, draws 2, AFC Hornchurch wins 4

Standings

Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 2 0 17:9 8 17
D W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 18:10 8 16
W W W L D
3 7 4 2 1 17:10 7 14
W D W W L
4 7 4 2 1 12:7 5 14
W W D W D
5 7 4 2 1 14:10 4 14
D W D L W
6 7 4 2 1 9:5 4 14
W W D W D
7 7 4 0 3 11:10 1 12
W W L L L
8 7 4 0 3 10:11 -1 12
L L W W L
9 7 4 0 3 7:8 -1 12
L L L W W
10 7 3 2 2 13:12 1 11
L L W W W
11 7 3 2 2 9:8 1 11
D L D W W
12 7 2 3 2 15:12 3 9
D L W D W
13 7 3 0 4 12:10 2 9
W L W L W
14 7 3 0 4 5:6 -1 9
L W L L L
15 7 3 0 4 8:13 -5 9
L W W W L
16 7 2 2 3 13:14 -1 8
D D L L W
17 7 2 2 3 10:12 -2 8
W L W D L
18 7 2 1 4 10:12 -2 7
W L L W L
19 7 2 1 4 9:11 -2 7
W L D L W
20 7 2 1 4 9:11 -2 7
L D L L W
21 7 1 3 3 10:11 -1 6
D W D L D
22 7 1 2 4 13:19 -6 5
L D L W L
23 7 1 1 5 5:13 -8 4
L D L L L
24 7 0 1 6 7:19 -12 1
L D L L L
Promotion - League Two
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - National League (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation