NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
19.09.2026 19:00
Koning Willem II Stadion

Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.3%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Willem II Win 31.3%
Draw 15.4%
Fortuna Sittard Win 53.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Willem II1.53
Fortuna Sittard1.88
Recent Form (Last 5)
Willem II Willem II
WWDLW
11 GF / 19 GA
Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard
WLDWL
19 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
1.73
2.11
Average Goals Conceded
2
7
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
9
2.4
Shots on Goal
4.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Willem II Willem II 9 matches
Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 11 matches
Willem II Statistic Fortuna Sittard
2 Wins 6
3 Draws 1
4 Losses 4
11 Goals For 19
19 Goals Against 22
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 1.73
2.11 Avg Goals Conceded 2
7 BTTS Yes 9
8 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 1
2.4 Shots On Goal 4.83
11.6 Total Shots 9
4.2 Corners 2
38.8% Ball Possession 32.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Fortuna Sittard's more proactive style and Willem II's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Willem II have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Fortuna Sittard carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 10 points while Willem II sit 16 on 2, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Willem II expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Fortuna Sittard in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortuna Sittard having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Fortuna Sittard.

Willem II Analysis

Willem II sit 16 with 2 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 5:14, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Haen (3 goals), Uriel van Aalst (1 goals), T. Verheydt (1 goals), with creative support from N. Tjoe-A-On (2 assists), Uriel van Aalst (1 assists), H. ter Avest (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortuna Sittard Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Fortuna Sittard have collected 10 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 11:9 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Ihattaren (3 goals), L. Zeefuik (3 goals), É. Michut (1 goals), with creative support from M. Ihattaren (2 assists), É. Michut (2 assists), L. Zeefuik (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Willem II won 3 times, Fortuna Sittard won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from Willem II's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.6%)
Predicted formations: Willem II 4-2-3-1 / Fortuna Sittard 5-3-2
H2H summary: Willem II wins 3, draws 4, Fortuna Sittard wins 3

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 5 1 0 22:7 15 16
W W W W W
2 6 5 1 0 17:6 11 16
D W W W W
3 6 4 2 0 20:7 13 14
W W D W D
4 6 4 1 1 12:5 7 13
W W D W W
5 5 3 1 1 14:6 8 10
W L W D W
6 6 3 1 2 13:7 6 10
L D W W L
7 6 3 1 2 12:14 -2 10
L W W L W
8 6 2 3 1 15:13 2 9
D D L W D
9 6 2 2 2 12:13 -1 8
D D L L W
10 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
L D L W W
11 6 1 3 2 7:9 -2 6
D L D L D
12 6 1 2 3 10:13 -3 5
L D L D W
13 6 1 2 3 5:11 -6 5
D L D L L
14 6 1 2 3 11:19 -8 5
W D L D L
15 6 1 1 4 9:18 -9 4
W D L L L
16 6 1 1 4 6:17 -11 4
L D L W L
17 5 0 2 3 5:14 -9 2
D L D L L
18 6 0 1 5 6:16 -10 1
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie