ENGLAND › LEAGUE ONE
03.10.2026 14:00
DW Stadium

Wigan vs Mansfield Town Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
78.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Wigan Win 21.5%
Draw 25%
Mansfield Town Win 53.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Wigan1.29
Mansfield Town1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Wigan Wigan
WWDLW
9 GF / 17 GA
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town
WLDWL
18 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.82
Average Goals Scored
1.8
1.55
Average Goals Conceded
2
3
BTTS Yes
6
5
Over 2.5
8
3.14
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Wigan Wigan 11 matches
Mansfield Town Mansfield Town 10 matches
Wigan Statistic Mansfield Town
2 Wins 3
2 Draws 2
7 Losses 5
9 Goals For 18
17 Goals Against 20
0.82 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
1.55 Avg Goals Conceded 2
3 BTTS Yes 6
7 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 2
7 Failed To Score 3
3.14 Shots On Goal 3.86
14.71 Total Shots 12.71
5.71 Corners 3.71
53.9% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mansfield Town. Wigan have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Wigan expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Mansfield Town in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mansfield Town having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Mansfield Town carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 17 with 8 points while Wigan sit 24 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Wigan Analysis

Wigan approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 24 with 4 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 5:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on J. Weir (2 goals), M. Power (1 goals), with creative support from M. Power (1 assists), B. Burrows (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mansfield Town Analysis

Mansfield Town sit 17 with 8 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 10:13 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Moriah-Welsh (2 goals), Jon Russell (2 goals), M. Smith (2 goals), with creative support from N. Moriah-Welsh (2 assists), Jon Russell (1 assists), R. Hendry (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Wigan won 2 times, Mansfield Town won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:4 from Wigan's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (78.5%)
Predicted formations: Wigan 4-2-3-1 / Mansfield Town 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Wigan wins 2, draws 2, Mansfield Town wins 1

Standings

League One
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 0 2 7:4 3 15
W W W L L
2 7 4 2 1 13:6 7 14
D D W W W
3 8 4 1 3 17:10 7 13
W D L W L
4 8 4 1 3 14:11 3 13
L W W W L
5 8 3 4 1 13:11 2 13
D D W D W
6 7 3 3 1 11:6 5 12
L D D W W
7 8 3 3 2 13:12 1 12
W D L D W
8 8 3 3 2 6:8 -2 12
D D W W L
9 7 3 2 2 16:9 7 11
D W L W W
10 6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
D W W L W
11 7 3 1 3 13:9 4 10
W L D W L
12 8 2 4 2 13:16 -3 10
D W W D L
13 7 2 3 2 11:8 3 9
L W W D D
14 7 2 3 2 9:11 -2 9
D W L W D
15 7 2 2 3 13:13 0 8
L D L L W
16 7 2 2 3 12:14 -2 8
L L D W L
17 7 2 2 3 10:13 -3 8
D D L L W
18 7 2 2 3 7:12 -5 8
D L L W W
19 7 2 2 3 8:18 -10 8
W D L L L
20 7 1 4 2 7:9 -2 7
L L D D W
21 7 1 3 3 8:9 -1 6
W L L D D
22 7 0 6 1 8:10 -2 6
D D D L D
23 8 1 2 5 4:13 -9 5
L L D L D
24
Wigan Home
7 1 1 5 5:12 -7 4
L D L W L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two