GERMANY BUNDESLIGA
16.05.2026 13:30
Weserstadion
Referee: Bastian Dankert, Germany
Werder Bremen
Match Timeline
Borussia Dortmund
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
A. Pieper ↔ M. Friedl
Werder Bremen
🔄
53'
I. Schmidt ↔ M. Grull
Werder Bremen
59'
S. Guirassy · Assist: J. Ryerson
Borussia Dortmund
🔄
70'
C. Puertas ↔ P. Covic
Werder Bremen
🔄
70'
S. Musah ↔ S. Mbangula
Werder Bremen
🔄
70'
M. Beier ↔ J. Brandt
Borussia Dortmund
🔄
70'
S. Inacio ↔ C. Chukwuemeka
Borussia Dortmund
🔄
83'
S. Guirassy ↔ F. Silva
Borussia Dortmund
🔄
83'
J. Bellingham ↔ K. Adeyemi
Borussia Dortmund
🔄
88'
J. Ryerson ↔ Y. Couto
Borussia Dortmund
🔄
90+3'
R. Schmid ↔ L. Bittencourt
Werder Bremen
90'
Y. Couto · Assist: K. Adeyemi
Borussia Dortmund

Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.6%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Werder Bremen Win 25.9%
Draw 14.4%
Borussia Dortmund Win 59.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Werder Bremen1.18
Borussia Dortmund1.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Werder Bremen Werder Bremen
WWDLW
37 GF / 58 GA
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund
WLDWL
90 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
2.09
1.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
16
BTTS Yes
23
18
Over 2.5
26
4.15
Shots on Goal
4.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 matches
Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 43 matches
Werder Bremen Statistic Borussia Dortmund
8 Wins 25
8 Draws 9
17 Losses 9
37 Goals For 90
58 Goals Against 55
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 2.09
1.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
16 BTTS Yes 23
26 Over 1.5 38
18 Over 2.5 26
12 Over 3.5 18
6 Clean Sheets 16
12 Failed To Score 4
4.15 Shots On Goal 4.67
13.15 Total Shots 12.49
4.55 Corners 5.05
51.2% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Borussia Dortmund's more proactive style and Werder Bremen's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Borussia Dortmund. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Werder Bremen expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Borussia Dortmund in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Borussia Dortmund having the stronger overall control. Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 70 points while Werder Bremen sit 15 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Werder Bremen Analysis

Werder Bremen sit 15 with 32 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 17 defeats, and the 37:58 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Stage (10 goals), J. Njinmah (5 goals), R. Schmid (4 goals), with creative support from R. Schmid (8 assists), Y. Sugawara (6 assists), J. Stage (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Borussia Dortmund Analysis

With 70 points from 33 games and a place of 2, Borussia Dortmund still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 21 wins, 7 draws, and 5 defeats with a 68:34 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Guirassy (16 goals), M. Beier (9 goals), J. Brandt (7 goals), with creative support from J. Ryerson (14 assists), M. Beier (6 assists), F. Silva (6 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Werder Bremen won 2 times, Borussia Dortmund won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:32 from Werder Bremen's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Werder Bremen 4-1-4-1 / Borussia Dortmund 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Werder Bremen 6, Borussia Dortmund 2
H2H summary: Werder Bremen wins 2, draws 5, Borussia Dortmund wins 8

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 5 1 122:36 86 89
W W D W W
2 34 22 7 5 70:34 36 73
W W L W L
3 34 20 5 9 66:47 19 65
L W L W W
4 34 18 8 8 71:49 22 62
D W D D L
5 34 18 7 9 65:52 13 61
L W D W W
6 34 17 8 9 68:47 21 59
D L W W L
7 34 13 8 13 51:57 -6 47
W L D L W
8 34 11 11 12 61:65 -4 44
D L L D L
9 34 12 7 15 45:61 -16 43
L W W D W
10 34 10 10 14 44:53 -9 40
W L W L D
11 34 10 9 15 44:58 -14 39
W W D L L
12 34 9 11 14 42:53 -11 38
W L W D D
13 34 9 11 14 40:54 -14 38
D W W L L
14 34 7 11 16 49:63 -14 32
L L D L D
15 34 8 8 18 37:60 -23 32
L L L D W
16 34 7 8 19 45:69 -24 29
L D W L D
17 34 6 8 20 41:72 -31 26
L W D W L
18 34 6 8 20 29:60 -31 26
L L L L D
Champions League
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation