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ENGLAND › CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Watford
FT
2 - 0
Derby
Vicarage Road
Referee: D. Webb
Watford
Match Timeline
Derby
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
L. Kjerrumgaard
Watford
🟨
23'
Matthew Clarke
Derby
🔄
23'
O. Maamma ↔ G. Chakvetadze
Watford
🟨
52'
Giorgi Chakvetadze
Watford
🟨
55'
Callum Elder
Derby
🔄
62'
C. Elder ↔ D. Murkin
Derby
🔄
62'
R. Brewster ↔ C. Morris
Derby
🔄
62'
D. Ozoh ↔ B. Clark
Derby
🔄
68'
L. Kjerrumgaard ↔ M. Doumbia
Watford
🔄
68'
N. Irankunda ↔ K. Baah
Watford
🔄
78'
B. Brereton Diaz ↔ O. Fraulo
Derby
🟨
83'
Mamadou Doumbia
Watford
🔄
85'
↔ M. Bola
Watford
🔄
86'
S. Goglichidze ↔ M. Pollock
Watford
🔄
90+2'
L. Travis ↔ C. Allen
Derby
⚽
90'
M. Doumbia · Assist: M. Bola
Watford

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Watford Win 0%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Watford1.27
Derby1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Watford Watford
WWDLW
42 GF / 43 GA
Derby Derby
WLDWL
48 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.3
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
21
BTTS Yes
23
16
Over 2.5
17
4.39
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Watford Watford 33 matches
Derby Derby 33 matches
Watford Statistic Derby
11 Wins 13
12 Draws 9
10 Losses 11
42 Goals For 48
43 Goals Against 42
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.3 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
21 BTTS Yes 23
25 Over 1.5 26
16 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 2
4.39 Shots On Goal 3.33
13.82 Total Shots 9.97
4.88 Corners 4.82
51.5% Ball Possession 42.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Watford won 8 times, Derby won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:23 from Watford's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Watford 4-2-3-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Watford wins 8, draws 1, Derby wins 5
Stats
Watford Watford
Derby Derby
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
2 Corner Kicks 2
13 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 0
45% Ball Possession 55%
18 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 1
8 Shots insidebox 3
10 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
359 Total passes 424
278 Passes accurate 354
1.30 expected_goals 0.54
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Watford
Formation
Derby
E. Selvik
E. Selvik
J. Ngakia
J. Ngakia
J. Abankwah
J. Abankwah
S. Goglichidze
↓
S. Goglichidze
S. Mfuni
S. Mfuni
I. Louza
I. Louza
N. Mendy
N. Mendy
N. Irankunda
↓
N. Irankunda
E. Kayembe
E. Kayembe
O. Maamma
↓
O. Maamma
L. Kjerrumgaard
⚽ ↓
L. Kjerrumgaard
J. Vickers
J. Vickers
J. Ward
J. Ward
D. Sanderson
D. Sanderson
M. Clarke
M. Clarke
C. Elder
↓
C. Elder
D. Ozoh
↓
D. Ozoh
L. Travis
↓
L. Travis
B. Brereton Diaz
↓
B. Brereton Diaz
S. Szmodics
S. Szmodics
R. Brewster
↓
R. Brewster
P. Agyemang
P. Agyemang
Watford 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
E. Selvik
G
2
J. Ngakia
D
25
J. Abankwah
D
3
S. Goglichidze
↓ 86'
D
21
S. Mfuni
D
10
I. Louza
M
23
N. Mendy
M
66
N. Irankunda
↓ 68'
M
39
E. Kayembe
M
42
O. Maamma
↓ 23'
M
9
L. Kjerrumgaard
⚽ 5' ↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
12
N. Baxter
G
6
M. Pollock
↑ 86'
D
7
T. Ince
M
8
G. Chakvetadze
↑ 23' 🟨 52'
M
15
E. Bove
M
16
M. Bola
🎯 90' ↑ 85'
D
17
P. Ekwah
M
20
M. Doumbia
⚽ 90' ↑ 68' 🟨 83'
F
34
K. Baah
↑ 68'
F
Derby 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
J. Vickers
G
23
J. Ward
D
28
D. Sanderson
D
5
M. Clarke
🟨 23'
D
20
C. Elder
↓ 62' 🟨 55'
D
18
D. Ozoh
↓ 62'
M
27
L. Travis
↓ 90+2'
M
25
B. Brereton Diaz
↓ 78'
M
19
S. Szmodics
M
10
R. Brewster
↓ 62'
M
7
P. Agyemang
F
Substitutes
12
R. O'Donnell
G
2
D. Murkin
↑ 62'
D
3
C. Forsyth
D
9
C. Morris
↑ 62'
F
29
O. Fraulo
↑ 78'
M
37
O. Eames
M
42
B. Clark
↑ 62'
M
44
I. Gordon
D
54
C. Allen
↑ 90+2'
Last matches: Watford
29.07.26
Fri
Watford
Fiorentina
0
1
L
25.07.26
Fri
Watford
Hansa Rostock
3
0
W
14.07.26
Fri
Watford
Barnet
2
2
D
11.07.26
Fri
Watford
Boreham Wood
1
2
L
02.05.26
Cha
Watford
Coventry
0
4
L
25.04.26
Cha
Watford
Middlesbrough
1
5
L
21.04.26
Cha
Watford
West Brom
0
3
L
18.04.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Watford
Oxford United
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Watford
Charlton
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
Watford
QPR
1
2
L
21.03.26
Cha
Watford
Leicester
0
0
D
17.03.26
Cha
Watford
Wrexham
3
1
W
14.03.26
Cha
Watford
Stoke City
1
3
L
10.03.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Wednesday
1
1
D
27.02.26
Cha
Watford
Bristol City
2
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Watford
Ipswich
0
2
L
14.02.26
Cha
Watford
Preston
2
2
D
07.02.26
Cha
Watford
Southampton
0
1
L
03.02.26
Cha
Watford
Hull City
0
0
D
Last matches: Derby
04.08.26
Fri
Derby
Rotherham
1
1
D
01.08.26
Fri
Derby
Burton Albion
0
1
L
31.07.26
Fri
Derby
Mansfield Town
3
1
W
28.07.26
Fri
Derby
Valencia
1
2
L
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
18.04.26
Cha
Derby
Oxford United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Derby
Stoke City
2
0
W
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
21.03.26
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
0
W
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
07.03.26
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Derby
Blackburn
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
14.02.26
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
0
W
H2H: Watford vs Derby
21.02.26
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
0
W
22.11.25
H2H
Derby
Watford
2
3
W
18.01.25
H2H
Derby
Watford
0
2
W
24.08.24
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
W
19.02.21
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
W
16.10.20
H2H
Derby
Watford
0
1
W
03.04.15
H2H
Derby
Watford
2
2
D
22.11.14
H2H
Watford
Derby
1
2
L
26.04.14
H2H
Derby
Watford
4
2
L
19.10.13
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
3
L
23.02.13
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
W
01.09.12
H2H
Derby
Watford
5
1
L
10.03.12
H2H
Derby
Watford
1
2
W
13.08.11
H2H
Watford
Derby
0
1
L
Last matches: Watford
29.07.26
Fri
Watford
Fiorentina
0
1
L
25.07.26
Fri
Watford
Hansa Rostock
3
0
W
02.05.26
Cha
Watford
Coventry
0
4
L
18.04.26
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Utd
0
2
L
06.04.26
Cha
Watford
Charlton
1
1
D
21.03.26
Cha
Watford
Leicester
0
0
D
17.03.26
Cha
Watford
Wrexham
3
1
W
24.02.26
Cha
Watford
Ipswich
0
2
L
31.01.26
Cha
Watford
Swansea
0
2
L
21.01.26
Cha
Watford
Portsmouth
1
1
D
17.01.26
Cha
Watford
Millwall
0
2
L
01.01.26
Cha
Watford
Birmingham
3
0
W
20.12.25
Cha
Watford
Stoke City
1
0
W
09.12.25
Cha
Watford
Sheffield Wednesday
1
1
D
06.12.25
Cha
Watford
Norwich
3
2
W
25.11.25
Cha
Watford
Preston
1
1
D
07.11.25
Cha
Watford
Bristol City
1
1
D
01.11.25
Cha
Watford
Middlesbrough
3
0
W
22.10.25
Cha
Watford
West Brom
2
1
W
04.10.25
Cha
Watford
Oxford United
2
1
W
H2H at home: Watford
21.02.26
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
0
W
24.08.24
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
W
19.02.21
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
W
22.11.14
H2H
Watford
Derby
1
2
L
19.10.13
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
3
L
23.02.13
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
W
13.08.11
H2H
Watford
Derby
0
1
L
Last matches: Derby
04.08.26
Fri
Derby
Rotherham
1
1
D
01.08.26
Fri
Derby
Burton Albion
0
1
L
31.07.26
Fri
Derby
Mansfield Town
3
1
W
24.07.26
Fri
Derby
SC Freiburg
1
3
L
17.07.26
Fri
Derby
Alfreton Town
2
0
W
25.04.26
Cha
Derby
QPR
3
2
W
21.04.26
Cha
Derby
Norwich
1
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Derby
Southampton
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Derby
Coventry
2
3
L
16.03.26
Cha
Derby
Portsmouth
1
0
W
10.03.26
Cha
Derby
Millwall
0
1
L
24.02.26
Cha
Derby
Hull City
2
4
L
30.01.26
Cha
Derby
Bristol City
5
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Derby
Charlton
2
1
W
17.01.26
Cha
Derby
Preston
1
0
W
29.12.25
Cha
Derby
Leicester
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
Derby
Birmingham
1
1
D
15.12.25
Cha
Derby
Sheffield Wednesday
3
0
W
29.11.25
Cha
Derby
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Derby
Swansea
2
1
W
H2H away: Derby
21.02.26
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
0
L
24.08.24
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
L
19.02.21
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
L
22.11.14
H2H
Watford
Derby
1
2
W
19.10.13
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
3
W
23.02.13
H2H
Watford
Derby
2
1
L
13.08.11
H2H
Watford
Derby
0
1
W

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Coventry
46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2
Ipswich
46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3
Millwall
46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4
Southampton
46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5
Middlesbrough
46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6
Hull City
46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7
Wrexham
46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8
Derby Away
46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9
Norwich
46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10
Birmingham
46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11
Swansea
46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12
Bristol City
46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13
Sheffield Utd
46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14
Preston
46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15
QPR
46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16
Watford Home
46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17
Stoke City
46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18
Portsmouth
46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19
Charlton
46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20
Blackburn
46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21
West Brom
46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22
Oxford United
46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23
Leicester
46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24
Sheffield Wednesday
46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
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