IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Regional Sports Centre
Referee: D. Toland
Waterford
Match Timeline
Sligo Rovers
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
27'
P. Amond · Assist: D. McMenamy
Waterford
🟨
35'
John Mahon
Waterford
🟨
52'
Alex Nolan
Sligo Rovers
🔄
63'
L. Heeney ↔ S. Glenfield
Waterford
🔄
63'
D. McMenamy ↔ C. Noonan
Waterford
🟨
66'
Oliver Denham
Sligo Rovers
🔄
66'
T. Lonergan ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford
67'
J. Voilas · Assist: J. Mahon
Waterford
🔄
68'
C. Kavanagh ↔ M. Traore
Sligo Rovers
🔄
68'
A. Nolan ↔ K. Zefi
Sligo Rovers
🟨
69'
Oliver Denham
Sligo Rovers
🟥
69'
Oliver Denham
Sligo Rovers
72'
P. Amond · Assist: C. Noonan
Waterford
74'
P. Amond · Assist: J. Voilas
Waterford
🟨
77'
Kevin Long
Waterford
🔄
82'
J. Mahon ↔ C. Barrett
Waterford

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.9%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 41.3%
Draw 17.1%
Sligo Rovers Win 41.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.28
Sligo Rovers1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
34 GF / 50 GA
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers
WLDWL
27 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
17
BTTS Yes
10
14
Over 2.5
11
3.42
Shots on Goal
2.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 26 matches
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers 25 matches
Waterford Statistic Sligo Rovers
6 Wins 9
8 Draws 4
12 Losses 12
34 Goals For 27
50 Goals Against 31
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
17 BTTS Yes 10
21 Over 1.5 15
14 Over 2.5 11
11 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 10
3.42 Shots On Goal 2.68
11.89 Total Shots 10.05
5 Corners 3.84
40.3% Ball Possession 46.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sligo Rovers. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Sligo Rovers in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sligo Rovers having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford sit 10 with 11 points after 19 league matches. The record of 1 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 21:40 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through T. Lonergan (8 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), P. Amond (3 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), C. Noonan (2 assists), Evan McLaughlin (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sligo Rovers Analysis

Sligo Rovers sit 9 with 19 points after 19 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 15:27 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through W. Fitzgerald (4 goals), A. Nolan (2 goals), Archie Meekison (2 goals), with creative support from W. Fitzgerald (3 assists), Cian Kavanagh (2 assists), J. Redmond (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 5 times, Sligo Rovers won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:21 from Waterford's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.9%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 5-3-2 / Sligo Rovers 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Waterford wins 5, draws 2, Sligo Rovers wins 8
Stats
Waterford Waterford
Sligo Rovers Sligo Rovers
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
9
Blocked Shots
3
4 Corner Kicks 5
11 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 1
38% Ball Possession 62%
21 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Goal 2
5 Shots off Goal 4
9 Blocked Shots 3
17 Shots insidebox 3
4 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
314 Total passes 513
198 Passes accurate 385
3.12 expected_goals 0.40
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Waterford
Formation
Sligo Rovers
S. McMullan
S. McMullan
J. Houston
J. Houston
H. Cann
H. Cann
J. Mahon
🎯
J. Mahon
K. Long
K. Long
B. Couto
B. Couto
L. Heeney
L. Heeney
W. Johnson
W. Johnson
D. McMenamy
🎯
D. McMenamy
T. Lonergan
T. Lonergan
P. Amond
⚽ 3
P. Amond
S. Sargeant
S. Sargeant
J. Esua
J. Esua
O. Denham
O. Denham
G. McElroy
G. McElroy
W. Fitzgerald
W. Fitzgerald
S. McHale
S. McHale
A. Nolan
A. Nolan
J. McManus
J. McManus
D. Patton
D. Patton
R. O'Kane
R. O'Kane
C. Kavanagh
C. Kavanagh
Waterford 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
S. McMullan
G
2
J. Houston
D
16
H. Cann
D
5
J. Mahon
🎯 67' ↓ 82' 🟨 35'
D
13
K. Long
🟨 77'
D
3
B. Couto
D
15
L. Heeney
↓ 63'
M
4
W. Johnson
27
D. McMenamy
🎯 27' ↓ 63'
M
18
T. Lonergan
↓ 66'
F
9
P. Amond
⚽ 27' ⚽ 72' ⚽ 74'
F
Substitutes
21
A. Doherty
G
11
T. Coyle
F
20
J. Voilas
⚽ 67' 🎯 74' ↑ 66'
F
19
S. Glenfield
↑ 63'
M
17
J. Faria
M
7
C. Carty
F
10
C. Noonan
🎯 72' ↑ 63'
M
6
C. Barrett
↑ 82'
D
22
R. Mansfield
F
Sligo Rovers 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
29
S. Sargeant
G
33
J. Esua
D
15
O. Denham
🟨 66' 🟨 69' 🟥 69'
D
52
G. McElroy
D
7
W. Fitzgerald
D
17
S. McHale
M
19
A. Nolan
↓ 68' 🟨 52'
M
14
J. McManus
M
71
D. Patton
M
28
R. O'Kane
M
11
C. Kavanagh
↓ 68'
F
Substitutes
1
L. Hughes
G
24
M. Traore
↑ 68'
F
77
K. Zefi
↑ 68'
F
63
G. Priosti
M
61
C. Cannon
3
S. Stewart
D
23
K. McDonagh
49
O. Kelly
M
50
S. Maughan
Last matches: Waterford
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
4
2
W
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
Last matches: Sligo Rovers
14.07.26
Fri
Sligo Rovers
Coleraine FC
1
2
L
11.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
1
2
L
27.06.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
2
2
D
19.06.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
29.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
1
3
L
22.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
16.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
1
4
L
08.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Drogheda United
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
2
0
W
10.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
06.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
21.03.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Drogheda United
2
1
W
H2H: Waterford vs Sligo Rovers
12.06.26
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
18.04.26
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
2
0
L
20.02.26
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
22.08.25
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
14.06.25
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
1
0
L
18.04.25
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
4
L
15.02.25
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
2
3
W
31.08.24
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
2
0
L
07.06.24
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
03.05.24
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
0
1
W
29.03.24
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
1
L
02.10.21
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
1
1
D
18.07.21
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
15.05.21
H2H
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
3
0
L
26.03.21
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
Last matches: Waterford
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bohemians
1
4
L
20.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Kerry
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Riverstown FC
3
1
W
H2H at home: Waterford
12.06.26
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
20.02.26
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
22.08.25
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
18.04.25
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
4
L
07.06.24
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
29.03.24
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
1
L
18.07.21
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
26.03.21
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
2
L
Last matches: Sligo Rovers
11.07.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
2
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
22.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Shelbourne
0
0
D
01.05.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Drogheda United
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Bohemians
2
1
W
03.04.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
16.03.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Dundalk
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Galway United
0
1
L
20.02.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Waterford
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
1
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
Sligo Rovers
Treaty United
1
2
L
13.01.26
Fri
Sligo Rovers
Finn Harps
0
1
L
H2H away: Sligo Rovers
12.06.26
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
L
20.02.26
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
22.08.25
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
2
W
18.04.25
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
4
W
07.06.24
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
1
L
29.03.24
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
1
W
18.07.21
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
0
L
26.03.21
H2H
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
1
2
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1