IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Regional Sports Centre
Referee: L. Keating
Waterford
Match Timeline
Shelbourne
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
Ali Coote
Shelbourne
🟨
43'
Jordan Houston
Waterford
48'
T. Lonergan · Assist: P. Amond
Waterford
🔄
51'
W. Johnson ↔ N. Mawene
Waterford
🟨
55'
Jack Henry-Francis
Shelbourne
56'
Tom Lonergan
Waterford
🔄
71'
E. Caffrey ↔ S. Moore
Shelbourne
🔄
71'
M. Mbeng ↔ S. Gannon
Shelbourne
🔄
80'
K. McInroy ↔ J. Lunney
Shelbourne
🔄
80'
K. Ledwidge ↔ J. Norris
Shelbourne
🔄
80'
A. Coote ↔ D. Ring
Shelbourne
🔄
83'
E. McLaughlin ↔ D. McMenamy
Waterford
🔄
84'
C. Noonan ↔ L. Heeney
Waterford
🔄
90+3'
J. Houston ↔ J. Voilas
Waterford

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.3%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 40.1%
Draw 14.6%
Shelbourne Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.43
Shelbourne1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
46 GF / 57 GA
Shelbourne Shelbourne
WLDWL
53 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
20
BTTS Yes
24
17
Over 2.5
22
3.6
Shots on Goal
3.69

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 32 matches
Shelbourne Shelbourne 31 matches
Waterford Statistic Shelbourne
9 Wins 12
10 Draws 12
13 Losses 7
46 Goals For 53
57 Goals Against 44
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
20 BTTS Yes 24
26 Over 1.5 26
17 Over 2.5 22
14 Over 3.5 11
4 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 4
3.6 Shots On Goal 3.69
12.16 Total Shots 11.92
4.84 Corners 4.69
37.6% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Shelbourne. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Shelbourne in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Shelbourne having the stronger overall control.

Waterford Analysis

So far, Waterford have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 22 points from 25 matches. The record of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 33:47 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Tom Lonergan (7 goals), Pádraig Amond (4 goals), John Mahon (3 goals), with creative support from Tom Lonergan (2 assists), Conan Noonan (2 assists), Dean McMenamy (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Shelbourne Analysis

Shelbourne come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 34 points from 24 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 35:35 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Harry Wood (3 goals), D. Kelly (3 goals), John Martin (2 goals), with creative support from Harry Wood (5 assists), John Martin (1 assists), A. Coote (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 3 times, Shelbourne won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:20 from Waterford's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.4%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 3-4-1-2 / Shelbourne 4-4-2
H2H summary: Waterford wins 3, draws 3, Shelbourne wins 9
Stats
Waterford Waterford
Shelbourne Shelbourne
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
8
8 Corner Kicks 6
13 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 2
35% Ball Possession 65%
14 Total Shots 15
5 Shots on Goal 1
7 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 8
10 Shots insidebox 12
4 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
234 Total passes 448
131 Passes accurate 353
1.61 expected_goals 1.34
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Waterford
Formation
Shelbourne
S. McMullan
S. McMullan
H. Cann
H. Cann
J. Mahon
J. Mahon
K. Long
K. Long
J. Houston
J. Houston
W. Johnson
W. Johnson
E. McLaughlin
E. McLaughlin
B. Couto
B. Couto
C. Noonan
C. Noonan
P. Amond
🎯
P. Amond
T. Lonergan
⚽ 2
T. Lonergan
E. Beach
E. Beach
M. Mbeng
M. Mbeng
P. Barrett
P. Barrett
S. Bone
S. Bone
K. Ledwidge
K. Ledwidge
J. Henry-Francis
J. Henry-Francis
K. McInroy
K. McInroy
A. Coote
A. Coote
E. Caffrey
E. Caffrey
D. Kelly
D. Kelly
R. Freitas
R. Freitas
Waterford 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
1
S. McMullan
G
16
H. Cann
D
5
J. Mahon
D
13
K. Long
D
2
J. Houston
↓ 90+3' 🟨 43'
M
4
W. Johnson
↓ 51'
8
E. McLaughlin
↓ 83'
M
3
B. Couto
M
10
C. Noonan
↓ 84'
F
9
P. Amond
🎯 48'
F
18
T. Lonergan
⚽ 48' ⚽ 56'
F
Substitutes
21
A. Doherty
G
15
L. Heeney
↑ 84'
M
20
J. Voilas
↑ 90+3'
F
27
D. McMenamy
↑ 83'
M
7
N. Mawene
↑ 51'
M
6
J. Ashton
12
B. McKenzie
32
G. Amedu
D
17
J. Faria
M
Shelbourne 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
19
E. Beach
G
25
M. Mbeng
↓ 71'
D
29
P. Barrett
D
15
S. Bone
D
4
K. Ledwidge
↓ 80'
D
21
J. Henry-Francis
🟨 55'
M
23
K. McInroy
↓ 80'
M
14
A. Coote
↓ 80' 🟨 4'
M
27
E. Caffrey
↓ 71'
M
17
D. Kelly
M
20
R. Freitas
F
Substitutes
13
M. Johnson
G
6
J. Lunney
↑ 80'
M
18
J. Norris
↑ 80'
D
22
S. Moore
↑ 71'
D
44
D. Ring
↑ 80'
F
55
J. Roche
D
2
S. Gannon
↑ 71'
D
36
W. Jarvis
M
56
J. Wuna
F
Last matches: Waterford
21.08.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
09.08.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
3
1
W
25.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
0
0
D
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
4
2
W
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
Last matches: Shelbourne
13.08.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Ajax
2
2
D
09.08.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
2
L
06.08.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Ajax
1
3
L
30.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
23.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
5
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Celtic
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
22.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
0
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
12.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
1
W
29.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Galway United
1
1
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
3
4
L
17.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
1
2
L
H2H: Waterford vs Shelbourne
02.08.26
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
0
W
22.05.26
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
L
06.02.26
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
26.09.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
2
1
L
23.06.25
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
2
2
D
05.05.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
W
21.02.25
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
L
18.01.25
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
4
1
L
18.10.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
3
1
L
13.06.24
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
L
17.05.24
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
1
0
L
16.02.24
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
16.10.22
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
L
10.10.20
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
L
01.08.20
H2H
Shelbourne
Waterford
0
1
W
Last matches: Waterford
09.08.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
3
1
W
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
04.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bohemians
1
4
L
20.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Kerry
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Riverstown FC
3
1
W
H2H at home: Waterford
02.08.26
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
0
W
06.02.26
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
23.06.25
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
2
2
D
21.02.25
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
L
13.06.24
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
L
16.02.24
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
16.10.22
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
L
10.10.20
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
L
Last matches: Shelbourne
06.08.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Ajax
1
3
L
30.07.26
UEF
Shelbourne
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
27.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
2
2
D
19.06.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
2
D
25.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
W
04.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
01.05.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Dundalk
2
1
W
06.04.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Derry City
2
1
W
27.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Drogheda United
2
1
W
06.02.26
Pre
Shelbourne
Waterford
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Bray Wanderers
3
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Shelbourne
Bohemians
2
2
D
18.12.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Celje
0
0
D
27.11.25
UEF
Shelbourne
AZ Alkmaar
0
2
L
23.10.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Shkendija
0
1
L
28.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
Linfield
2
0
W
06.08.25
UEF
Shelbourne
HNK Rijeka
2
1
W
H2H away: Shelbourne
02.08.26
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
0
L
06.02.26
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
23.06.25
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
2
2
D
21.02.25
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
W
13.06.24
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
W
16.02.24
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
16.10.22
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
W
10.10.20
H2H
Waterford
Shelbourne
0
1
W

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 6 5 43:24 19 54
W D W W D
2 28 14 8 6 45:23 22 50
W W D D D
3 28 13 8 7 47:34 13 47
W L D W W
4 28 9 10 9 43:43 0 37
L L D D L
5 26 8 10 8 36:38 -2 34
L L W D L
6 28 7 12 9 38:37 1 33
L W D L W
7 27 8 9 10 35:41 -6 33
W D D D W
8 28 6 11 11 37:48 -11 29
D W W D D
9 28 6 10 12 31:45 -14 28
L D D D W
10 28 5 8 15 23:45 -22 23
D L D D L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation