IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
11.09.2026 18:45
Regional Sports Centre
Waterford
Match Timeline
Dundalk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
John Mahon
Dundalk
🟨
31'
Keith Buckley
Dundalk
37'
H. Cann · Assist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
Waterford
🟨
56'
shane tracey
Dundalk
🔄
60'
shane tracey ↔ Bobby Burns
Dundalk
🔄
61'
John Ross Wilson ↔ Harvey Warren
Dundalk
🔄
61'
leonardo gaxha ↔ Declan McDaid
Dundalk
🔄
61'
Keith Buckley ↔ Aodh Dervin
Dundalk
🟨
65'
Harvey Warren
Dundalk
🔄
72'
Egor Vassenin ↔ Harry Groome
Dundalk
🟨
78'
Evan McLaughlin
Waterford
🟨
90'
ronan teahan
Dundalk

Waterford vs Dundalk Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.3%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.56
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.3%
1.28
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.56
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.12
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 48.4%
Draw 7.8%
Dundalk Win 43.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.48
Dundalk1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
52 GF / 58 GA
Dundalk Dundalk
WLDWL
52 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
21
BTTS Yes
24
18
Over 2.5
20
3.83
Shots on Goal
5.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 36 matches
Dundalk Dundalk 31 matches
Waterford Statistic Dundalk
12 Wins 11
11 Draws 10
13 Losses 10
52 Goals For 52
58 Goals Against 48
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
21 BTTS Yes 24
28 Over 1.5 28
18 Over 2.5 20
15 Over 3.5 12
7 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 2
3.83 Shots On Goal 5.31
12.9 Total Shots 16.1
5.14 Corners 6.07
37.5% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Dundalk's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Dundalk. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Dundalk in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundalk having the stronger overall control.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford sit 8 with 32 points after 29 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 39:48 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Tom Lonergan (9 goals), Pádraig Amond (6 goals), John Mahon (4 goals), with creative support from Benny Couto (4 assists), Tom Lonergan (3 assists), Conan Noonan (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dundalk Analysis

Placed 4 with 40 points from 29 outings, Dundalk continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 10 wins, 10 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 46:45 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Daryl Horgan (8 goals), Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), with creative support from Daryl Horgan (4 assists), Eoin Kenny (3 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 8 times, Dundalk won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:23 from Waterford's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 3-5-2 / Dundalk 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Waterford wins 8, draws 4, Dundalk wins 3

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation