IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Regional Sports Centre
Referee: D. Murphy
Waterford
Match Timeline
Dundalk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
D. Horgan · Assist: E. Kenny
Dundalk
🟨
28'
Ronan Mansfield
Waterford
35'
G. Arubi
Dundalk
🟨
37'
Mayowa Animasahun
Dundalk
40'
T. Lonergan · Assist: J. Houston
Waterford
🟨
45+1'
John Mahon
Waterford
🔄
57'
H. Groome ↔ R. Teahan
Dundalk
🔄
57'
S. Tracey ↔ A. Dervin
Dundalk
🔄
58'
B. Couto ↔ J. Faria
Waterford
60'
P. Amond · Assist: D. McMenamy
Waterford
🟨
62'
Evan McLaughlin
Waterford
🔄
66'
M. Animasahun ↔ H. Warren
Dundalk
🔄
72'
C. Noonan ↔ S. Glenfield
Waterford
🔄
78'
B. Burns ↔ D. McDaid
Dundalk
83'
D. Horgan · Assist: E. Kenny
Dundalk
🔄
87'
D. McMenamy ↔ T. Coyle
Waterford
🔄
87'
J. Houston ↔ W. Johnson
Waterford
88'
J. Mahon · Assist: E. McLaughlin
Waterford

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.1%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 31.4%
Draw 13.9%
Dundalk Win 54.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.24
Dundalk1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
22 GF / 35 GA
Dundalk Dundalk
WLDWL
29 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.81
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.44
11
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
10
2.85
Shots on Goal
6.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 20 matches
Dundalk Dundalk 16 matches
Waterford Statistic Dundalk
5 Wins 6
5 Draws 6
10 Losses 4
22 Goals For 29
35 Goals Against 23
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.44
11 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 15
8 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 7
2 Clean Sheets 3
8 Failed To Score 2
2.85 Shots On Goal 6.43
11.23 Total Shots 16.5
4.92 Corners 6.43
40.8% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Dundalk's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Dundalk carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 21 points while Waterford sit 10 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Dundalk. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Dundalk in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundalk having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford are currently 10 in the standings with 5 points from 13 matches. Their overall return of 0 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 9:25 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Lonergan (3 goals), P. Amond (2 goals), Dean McMenamy (1 goals), with creative support from J. Voilas (2 assists), C. Noonan (1 assists), Evan McLaughlin (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dundalk Analysis

Placed 4 with 21 points from 14 outings, Dundalk continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, while the 23:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Horgan (3 goals), Declan McDaid (3 goals), E. Kenny (3 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (4 assists), G. Arubi (2 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 8 times, Dundalk won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:23 from Waterford's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 5-3-2 / Dundalk 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Waterford wins 8, draws 4, Dundalk wins 3
Stats
Waterford Waterford
Dundalk Dundalk
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
11
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
9
10 Corner Kicks 11
17 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 1
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 26
7 Shots on Goal 6
4 Shots off Goal 11
6 Blocked Shots 9
15 Shots insidebox 19
2 Shots outsidebox 7
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
273 Total passes 353
169 Passes accurate 259
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Waterford
Formation
Dundalk
A. Doherty
A. Doherty
J. Houston
🎯
J. Houston
H. Cann
H. Cann
J. Mahon
J. Mahon
R. Mansfield
R. Mansfield
B. Couto
B. Couto
E. McLaughlin
🎯
E. McLaughlin
D. McMenamy
🎯
D. McMenamy
C. Noonan
C. Noonan
T. Lonergan
T. Lonergan
P. Amond
P. Amond
E. Minogue
E. Minogue
J. Wilson
J. Wilson
M. Animasahun
M. Animasahun
S. Spaight
S. Spaight
T. Wilson
T. Wilson
S. Tracey
S. Tracey
B. Burns
B. Burns
E. Kenny
🎯
E. Kenny
H. Groome
H. Groome
D. Horgan
⚽ 2
D. Horgan
G. Arubi
G. Arubi
Waterford 5-3-2
Starting XI
21
A. Doherty
G
2
J. Houston
🎯 40' ↓ 87'
D
16
H. Cann
D
5
J. Mahon
⚽ 88' 🟨 45+1'
D
22
R. Mansfield
🟨 28'
D
3
B. Couto
↓ 58'
D
8
E. McLaughlin
🎯 88' 🟨 62'
M
27
D. McMenamy
🎯 60' ↓ 87'
M
10
C. Noonan
↓ 72'
M
18
T. Lonergan
⚽ 40'
F
9
P. Amond
⚽ 60'
F
Substitutes
1
S. McMullan
G
11
T. Coyle
↑ 87'
F
15
L. Heeney
M
20
J. Voilas
F
19
S. Glenfield
↑ 72'
M
4
W. Johnson
↑ 87'
17
J. Faria
↑ 58'
M
7
C. Carty
F
43
A. Zborowski
D
Dundalk 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
E. Minogue
G
31
J. Wilson
D
4
M. Animasahun
↓ 66' 🟨 37'
D
19
S. Spaight
D
22
T. Wilson
D
17
S. Tracey
↓ 57'
M
3
B. Burns
↓ 78'
M
16
E. Kenny
🎯 14' 🎯 83'
M
8
H. Groome
↓ 57'
M
7
D. Horgan
⚽ 14' ⚽ 83'
M
9
G. Arubi
⚽ 35'
F
Substitutes
13
P. Cherrie
G
18
K. Buckley
M
27
D. McDaid
↑ 78'
M
12
L. Mulligan
D
11
R. Teahan
↑ 57'
M
6
A. Dervin
↑ 57'
M
10
L. Gaxha
F
5
H. Warren
↑ 66'
D
23
A. M. Keogh
M
Last matches: Waterford
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
4
2
W
26.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
3
3
D
22.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
4
L
01.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
06.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
3
4
L
13.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Dundalk
0
5
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
27.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
4
L
Last matches: Dundalk
10.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
2
L
03.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
26.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
2
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
01.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
16.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
0
4
L
H2H: Waterford vs Dundalk
26.06.26
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
2
3
W
04.05.26
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
13.03.26
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
5
0
L
13.09.24
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
2
1
W
28.06.24
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
0
2
W
10.05.24
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
4
1
W
15.03.24
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
0
0
D
16.09.22
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
29.01.22
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
2
1
W
29.10.21
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
0
L
03.09.21
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
1
1
D
11.06.21
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
1
3
W
30.04.21
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
0
3
L
25.10.20
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
1
0
W
14.08.20
H2H
Dundalk
Waterford
2
2
D
Last matches: Waterford
10.07.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
0
2
L
12.06.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
4
0
W
18.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Drogheda United
2
1
W
15.05.26
Pre
Waterford
Derry City
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Galway United
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pre
Waterford
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
20.03.26
Pre
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pre
Waterford
Bohemians
0
1
L
20.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Sligo Rovers
0
0
D
06.02.26
Pre
Waterford
Shelbourne
1
1
D
30.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Bohemians
1
4
L
20.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Kerry
3
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Waterford
Riverstown FC
3
1
W
H2H at home: Waterford
04.05.26
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
13.09.24
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
2
1
W
10.05.24
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
4
1
W
16.09.22
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
W
29.01.22
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
2
1
W
03.09.21
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
1
1
D
30.04.21
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
0
3
L
25.10.20
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
1
0
W
Last matches: Dundalk
03.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
0
4
L
23.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
20.01.26
Fri
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
16.01.26
Fri
Dundalk
UCD
5
1
W
H2H away: Dundalk
04.05.26
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
3
3
D
13.09.24
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
2
1
L
10.05.24
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
4
1
L
16.09.22
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
3
2
L
29.01.22
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
2
1
L
03.09.21
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
1
1
D
30.04.21
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
0
3
W
25.10.20
H2H
Waterford
Dundalk
1
0
L

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 5 5 40:22 18 50
W W D W L
2 25 12 7 6 40:27 13 43
W W W L L
3 24 12 6 6 39:20 19 42
D W L W W
4 24 9 8 7 38:36 2 35
L L L W W
5 24 8 10 6 35:35 0 34
W D L D W
6 25 6 11 8 32:31 1 29
L W D L W
7 23 7 6 10 32:39 -7 27
W L L W L
8 24 6 7 11 29:41 -12 25
W L L D L
9 24 4 9 11 33:47 -14 21
D W W L W
10 24 5 5 14 20:40 -20 20
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1