Waterford vs Derry City Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
63.7%
|
2.71 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
62.8%
|
1.67 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
52.4%
|
1.74 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
92%
|
1.13 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
4.33 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
10.00 |
Waterford
Derry City
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Waterford
37 matches
Derry City
36 matches
| Waterford | Statistic | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wins | 8 |
| 12 | Draws | 13 |
| 13 | Losses | 15 |
| 53 | Goals For | 46 |
| 59 | Goals Against | 50 |
| 1.43 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.28 |
| 1.59 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.39 |
| 22 | BTTS Yes | 22 |
| 29 | Over 1.5 | 24 |
| 18 | Over 2.5 | 18 |
| 15 | Over 3.5 | 10 |
| 7 | Clean Sheets | 8 |
| 11 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 3.97 | Shots On Goal | 4.09 |
| 13.03 | Total Shots | 11.47 |
| 5.27 | Corners | 4.94 |
| 37.6% | Ball Possession | 45.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Derry City's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Derry City. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Derry City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.
Waterford are currently 8 in the standings with 32 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 11 draws, and 11 losses, while the 39:48 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tom Lonergan (9 goals), Pádraig Amond (6 goals), John Mahon (4 goals), with creative support from Benny Couto (4 assists), Tom Lonergan (3 assists), Conan Noonan (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
So far, Derry City have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 34 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 13 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 41:40 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by James Clarke (5 goals), Kévin Santos (3 goals), Michael Duffy (2 goals), with creative support from Michael Duffy (3 assists), Adam O'Reilly (2 assists), Ben Doherty (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 4 times, Derry City won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:34 from Waterford's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 52:25 | 27 | 59 |
W
W
W
L
W
|
|
| 2 | 31 | 17 | 8 | 6 | 49:31 | 18 | 59 |
W
L
D
D
W
|
|
| 3 | 31 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 55:37 | 18 | 56 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 4 |
Derry City
Away
|
32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45:42 | 3 | 41 |
W
D
W
D
L
|
| 5 | 32 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 49:53 | -4 | 41 |
L
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 6 | 31 | 9 | 12 | 10 | 41:44 | -3 | 39 |
W
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 7 | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 41:47 | -6 | 37 |
L
W
L
D
W
|
|
| 8 |
Waterford
Home
|
32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44:54 | -10 | 34 |
L
D
D
W
D
|
| 9 | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 38:51 | -13 | 34 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 10 | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24:54 | -30 | 23 |
L
L
L
L
D
|