IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
14.09.2026 18:45
Regional Sports Centre
Waterford
Match Timeline
Derry City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
Adam O'Reilly · Assist: James Clarke
Derry City
🟨
11'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🟨
45'
James Clarke
Derry City
45'
Evan McLaughlin
Waterford
51'
Michael Duffy · Assist: Brandon·Fleming
Derry City
57'
Padraig Amond · Assist: Bernardo Piexoto Couto
Waterford
🟨
64'
Liam Boyce
Derry City
🔄
64'
Evan McLaughlin ↔ Sam Glenfield
Waterford
🔄
64'
Noah Mawene ↔ Luke Heeney
Waterford
🔄
64'
C.Noonan ↔ Dean Mcmenamy
Waterford
🟨
73'
Sam Glenfield
Waterford
🔄
73'
James Clarke ↔ Ellis Chapman
Derry City
🟨
74'
Darragh Burns
Derry City
🔄
76'
Darragh Burns ↔ Kévin Santos
Derry City
🟨
88'
Mark Gerard Connolly
Derry City
🟨
88'
Ciaran Grogan
Derry City

Waterford vs Derry City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.7%
Odds 2.71
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds 1.74
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.7%
2.71
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
1.74
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.13
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Waterford Win 63.7%
Draw 12.5%
Derry City Win 23.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waterford1.41
Derry City1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waterford Waterford
WWDLW
53 GF / 59 GA
Derry City Derry City
WLDWL
46 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.39
22
BTTS Yes
22
18
Over 2.5
18
3.97
Shots on Goal
4.09

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waterford Waterford 37 matches
Derry City Derry City 36 matches
Waterford Statistic Derry City
12 Wins 8
12 Draws 13
13 Losses 15
53 Goals For 46
59 Goals Against 50
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.39
22 BTTS Yes 22
29 Over 1.5 24
18 Over 2.5 18
15 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 8
11 Failed To Score 10
3.97 Shots On Goal 4.09
13.03 Total Shots 11.47
5.27 Corners 4.94
37.6% Ball Possession 45.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Derry City's more proactive style and Waterford's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Derry City. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waterford expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Derry City in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Waterford Analysis

Waterford are currently 8 in the standings with 32 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 11 draws, and 11 losses, while the 39:48 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tom Lonergan (9 goals), Pádraig Amond (6 goals), John Mahon (4 goals), with creative support from Benny Couto (4 assists), Tom Lonergan (3 assists), Conan Noonan (2 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Derry City Analysis

So far, Derry City have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 34 points from 29 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 13 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 41:40 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by James Clarke (5 goals), Kévin Santos (3 goals), Michael Duffy (2 goals), with creative support from Michael Duffy (3 assists), Adam O'Reilly (2 assists), Ben Doherty (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Waterford won 4 times, Derry City won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:34 from Waterford's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Waterford 3-5-2 / Derry City 4-3-3
H2H summary: Waterford wins 4, draws 2, Derry City wins 9

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation