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25.10.2026 13:00
Estadio Alfredo Victor Viera
Referee: M. De Armas
Wanderers
Match Timeline
Progreso
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
6'
S. Bruschi ↔ L. Couture
Progreso
🔄
25'
F. Formiliano ↔ A. Garcia
Wanderers
🟨
40'
Mario Garcia
Wanderers
🔄
46'
D. J. Mencia Hernandez ↔ L. Zazpe
Wanderers
🔄
46'
F. Labandeira ↔ R. Sanchez
Wanderers
🔄
46'
G. Trasante ↔ F. De Leon
Progreso
🔄
46'
M. Juambeltz ↔ M. Copelotti
Progreso
🟨
48'
Joaquin Nicolas·Cabral
Wanderers
⚽
59'
N. Lopez
Progreso
🟨
65'
Renzo Bacchia
Progreso
🟨
69'
Emiliano Alvarez
Progreso
🔄
69'
↔ J. Urretaviscaya
Wanderers
🔄
79'
J. Alberti ↔ J. Luna
Wanderers
🟨
81'
Leandro Zazpe
Wanderers
🔄
90+6'
A. Ocampo ↔ G. Silva
Progreso
🔄
90+1'
N. Lopez ↔ A. Codagnone
Progreso

Wanderers vs Progreso Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Wanderers Win 54.9%
Draw 14%
Progreso Win 31.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Wanderers1.31
Progreso1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Wanderers Wanderers
L L W W D
6 GF / 8 GA
Progreso Progreso
W D L W W
9 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
18
BTTS Yes
15
17
Over 2.5
14
1.6
Shots on Goal
2.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Wanderers Wanderers 34 matches
Progreso Progreso 33 matches
Wanderers Statistic Progreso
14 Wins 9
8 Draws 5
12 Losses 19
42 Goals For 30
47 Goals Against 47
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
18 BTTS Yes 15
27 Over 1.5 22
17 Over 2.5 14
6 Over 3.5 5
12 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 13
1.6 Shots On Goal 2.6
3 Total Shots 5.2
3.2 Corners 2
29.6% Ball Possession 24.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Progreso. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Wanderers arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 50 points compared to Progreso in 15 on 32, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Wanderers expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Progreso in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Progreso having the stronger overall control.

Wanderers Analysis

So far, Wanderers have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 50 points from 33 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 41:42 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Progreso Analysis

Progreso approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 32 points from 33 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 19 defeats with a 30:47 goal balance points toward good form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Wanderers won 1 times, Progreso won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:5 from Wanderers's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86%)
Predicted formations: Wanderers 4-3-3 / Progreso 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Wanderers wins 1, draws 2, Progreso wins 2

Standings

Primera: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 35 19 9 7 52:28 24 65
D D L D W
2 35 18 9 8 54:32 22 63
D W L D W
3 35 19 6 10 59:41 18 63
W W L W L
4 35 19 4 12 53:42 11 61
W L W W W
5 35 16 12 7 45:31 14 60
W D W L L
6 35 16 11 8 47:31 16 59
W W W D W
7 35 14 9 12 42:44 -2 51
D L L L W
8 35 13 8 14 47:44 3 47
D W W W W
9 35 10 11 14 37:43 -6 41
L D L W D
10 35 11 8 16 35:48 -13 41
W L L L L
11 35 9 12 14 35:43 -8 39
W D L L L
12 35 9 10 16 33:41 -8 37
L W D L L
13 35 10 7 18 34:47 -13 37
L L W W D
14 35 10 7 18 29:53 -24 37
L L D W L
15 35 10 5 20 31:49 -18 35
L W W D L
16 35 6 14 15 29:45 -16 32
L L W L W
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)