URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.6%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Wanderers Win 64.6%
Draw 4.7%
Cerro Largo Win 30.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Wanderers1.19
Cerro Largo1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Wanderers Wanderers
WWDLW
30 GF / 30 GA
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo
WLDWL
24 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
12
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Wanderers Wanderers 24 matches
Cerro Largo Cerro Largo 23 matches
Wanderers Statistic Cerro Largo
11 Wins 8
5 Draws 5
8 Losses 10
30 Goals For 24
30 Goals Against 25
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
12 BTTS Yes 8
17 Over 1.5 14
12 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 4
10 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Wanderers's more proactive style and Cerro Largo's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Cerro Largo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Wanderers come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Wanderers Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 38 points from 23 games, Wanderers bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 11 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, with a 29:25 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, which underlines an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Cerro Largo Analysis

Cerro Largo sit 10 with 29 points after 23 league matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 24:25 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Wanderers won 8 times, Cerro Largo won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:13 from Wanderers's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Wanderers 4-3-3 / Cerro Largo 4-3-3
H2H summary: Wanderers wins 8, draws 4, Cerro Largo wins 3
Last matches: Wanderers
09.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
0
W
05.08.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
5
L
31.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
2
0
W
17.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
2
1
W
11.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
05.06.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
5
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
0
0
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
1
2
L
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
1
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
1
4
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
25.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Albion FC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
13.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
2
L
06.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
Last matches: Cerro Largo
07.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
1
1
D
01.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
0
3
L
25.07.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
1
0
W
13.07.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
08.06.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
29.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
2
0
W
23.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
3
0
W
17.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
11.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
2
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
20.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
2
2
D
30.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Danubio
2
0
W
24.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Deportivo Maldonado
3
1
W
15.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
1
W
09.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
H2H: Wanderers vs Cerro Largo
13.02.26
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
1
2
W
01.09.25
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
0
1
W
12.06.25
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
0
0
D
10.03.25
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
19.11.24
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
4
0
L
19.05.24
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
14.10.23
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
04.03.23
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
0
0
D
06.08.22
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
1
1
D
18.03.22
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
0
1
W
11.03.22
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
14.02.22
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
08.11.21
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
2
L
17.07.21
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
2
0
L
13.02.21
H2H
Cerro Largo
Wanderers
1
3
W
Last matches: Wanderers
11.07.26
Pri
Wanderers
Progreso
2
0
W
05.06.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
0
D
24.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
08.05.26
Pri
Wanderers
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Penarol
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Wanderers
Racing Montevideo
1
2
L
28.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
2
1
W
06.03.26
Pri
Wanderers
Deportivo Maldonado
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Atletico Torque
0
4
L
07.02.26
Pri
Wanderers
Defensor Sporting
1
1
D
08.11.25
Pri
Wanderers
CA River Plate
0
4
L
31.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Boston River
2
2
D
26.10.25
Pri
Wanderers
Club Nacional
0
0
D
26.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Cerro
0
1
L
06.09.25
Pri
Wanderers
Danubio
0
2
L
22.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Juventud
0
1
L
10.08.25
Pri
Wanderers
Plaza Colonia
0
0
D
H2H at home: Wanderers
10.03.25
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
3
0
W
19.05.24
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
14.10.23
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
11.03.22
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
W
14.02.22
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
W
08.11.21
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
2
L
Last matches: Cerro Largo
01.08.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Penarol
0
3
L
25.07.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
1
0
W
08.06.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
1
0
W
20.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Boston River
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Albion FC
2
2
D
24.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
0
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Central Espanol
3
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Liverpool Montevideo
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Defensor Sporting
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
1
0
W
03.11.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
19.10.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
CA River Plate
1
1
D
04.10.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Club Nacional
1
2
L
20.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Atletico Torque
0
1
L
07.09.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Cerro
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Miramar
1
1
D
09.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Progreso
2
1
W
02.08.25
Pri
Cerro Largo
Juventud
2
0
W
H2H away: Cerro Largo
10.03.25
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
3
0
L
19.05.24
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
L
14.10.23
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
1
D
11.03.22
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
2
1
L
14.02.22
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
0
L
08.11.21
H2H
Wanderers
Cerro Largo
1
2
W

Standings

Primera: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 9 4 2 23:14 9 31
L D W D W
2 15 9 2 4 24:16 8 29
W W L D W
3 15 8 4 3 26:16 10 28
W W W W W
4 15 8 3 4 23:16 7 27
W D L D L
5 15 7 3 5 23:22 1 24
W L W L D
6 15 6 5 4 22:16 6 23
W D W D L
7 15 7 1 7 26:21 5 22
W L L W L
8 15 5 6 4 13:11 2 21
L D W D W
9 15 5 5 5 20:18 2 20
L W D L W
10 15 6 2 7 16:21 -5 20
W L W L L
11 15 4 6 5 17:21 -4 18
L L W D D
12 15 5 2 8 16:19 -3 17
L W L L D
13 15 5 2 8 14:20 -6 17
L W L W L
14 15 4 3 8 17:22 -5 15
W W D D W
15 15 2 4 9 12:23 -11 10
L L L W L
16 15 2 4 9 8:24 -16 10
L L L D D
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)