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NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
18.09.2026 18:00
Mandemakers Stadion
Referee: Richard Martens
Waalwijk
Match Timeline
MVV
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
13'
J. de Wijs · Assist: J. Nap
Waalwijk
⚽
29'
F. Al Mazyani · Assist: K. Varela
Waalwijk
⚽
40'
J. Familia-Castillo
Waalwijk
🟨
42'
Ryan Fage
Waalwijk
🔄
46'
R. Klaasen ↔ M. Luijendijk
MVV
🔄
46'
N. Matoug ↔ O. Zimuangana
MVV
⚽
49'
L. van Gelderen · Assist: J. Nap
Waalwijk
🔄
63'
K. Varela ↔ V. Misidjan
Waalwijk
🔄
63'
F. Stokkers ↔ J. van de Haar
Waalwijk
⚽
73'
J. van de Haar · Assist: J. Familia-Castillo
Waalwijk
🔄
75'
J. de Wijs ↔ S. van der Plas
Waalwijk
🔄
75'
R. Fage ↔ Y. van der Veen
Waalwijk
🔄
77'
N. El Hamdaoui ↔ T. Vinogradac
MVV
🔄
81'
J. Nap ↔ T. van de Loo
Waalwijk
⚽
89'
O. Dumont · Assist: O. Zimuangana
MVV
🟨
90+1'
Hugo Wentges
MVV
⚽
90'
J. van de Haar
Waalwijk

Waalwijk vs MVV Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
43.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Waalwijk Win 43.2%
Draw 14.7%
MVV Win 42.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Waalwijk1.63
MVV1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Waalwijk Waalwijk
WWDLW
22 GF / 17 GA
MVV MVV
WLDWL
20 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.73
10
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
9
5.5
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Waalwijk Waalwijk 14 matches
MVV MVV 15 matches
Waalwijk Statistic MVV
4 Wins 5
8 Draws 5
2 Losses 5
22 Goals For 20
17 Goals Against 26
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.73
10 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 11
7 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 5
5.5 Shots On Goal 3.83
15.83 Total Shots 10.33
3.67 Corners 3.67
52.3% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. MVV look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward MVV. MVV carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 13 points while Waalwijk sit 10 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Waalwijk expected to line up in 4-4-2 and MVV in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward MVV having the stronger overall control.

Waalwijk Analysis

Waalwijk sit 10 with 7 points after 5 league matches. The record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 10:8 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Keyan Varela (3 goals), F. Al Mazyani (1 goals), Yorem van der Veen (1 goals), with creative support from F. Al Mazyani (1 assists), Yorem van der Veen (1 assists), Juan Carlos Familia-Castillo (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

MVV Analysis

MVV approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 13 points after 5 outings. They have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 9:5 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on O. Dumont (2 goals), N. El Hamdaoui (1 goals), with creative support from O. Dumont (1 assists), M. Hofland (1 assists), R. Klaasen (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Waalwijk won 5 times, MVV won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:5 from Waalwijk's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.3%)
Predicted formations: Waalwijk 4-4-2 / MVV 4-3-3
H2H summary: Waalwijk wins 5, draws 3, MVV wins 0

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 31:12 19 25
W D W L W
2 10 7 1 2 22:7 15 22
W W L W W
3 10 7 0 3 26:14 12 21
W W L W W
4 10 6 1 3 22:18 4 19
W D W L L
5 10 5 2 3 20:19 1 17
W D W W L
6 10 4 4 2 10:8 2 16
D L W D W
7
MVV Away
10 5 1 4 13:20 -7 16
L L W L L
8 10 5 0 5 22:17 5 15
W L W L W
9 10 3 5 2 19:15 4 14
L D L W W
10 10 4 2 4 15:15 0 14
L D L W L
11 10 4 1 5 22:18 4 13
L W D L W
12 10 3 4 3 15:17 -2 13
D L D L W
13 10 4 0 6 15:15 0 12
W W L W L
14 10 3 2 5 14:18 -4 11
W D L W L
15 10 3 2 5 15:22 -7 11
L D L W W
16 10 3 2 5 13:23 -10 11
W D W L W
17 10 2 3 5 16:19 -3 9
L D L L W
18 10 2 2 6 13:25 -12 8
L D L L W
19 10 2 2 6 13:27 -14 8
L D W L L
20 10 2 1 7 16:23 -7 7
L L W W D
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