FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
10.07.2026 16:00
FT
1 - 0
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: P. Simani
VPS
Match Timeline
SJK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Souleymane Bagayogo
SJK
🟨
17'
Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
SJK
🟨
25'
Martti Haukioja
VPS
🟨
41'
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
VPS
🟨
41'
Sayibu Yakubu
SJK
🔄
42'
O. Vaisto ↔ K. Yao
SJK
🔄
46'
J. Muzinga ↔ X. Odhiambo
VPS
49'
S. Yakubu
VPS
🟨
51'
Lassana Mané
VPS
🔄
62'
Caio Araujo ↔ Rangel
SJK
🔄
62'
Kelwin ↔ K. Paananen
SJK
🔄
62'
M. Suso ↔ A. Bostrom
SJK
🟨
68'
Xavier Odhiambo
VPS
🔄
75'
K. Kouassivi-Benissan ↔ S. Lindholm
VPS
🔄
75'
P. Lima ↔ A. Raisanen
VPS
🔄
81'
L. Smyth ↔ Y. Daoussi
VPS
🔄
85'
M. Arsalo ↔ E. Mastokangas
SJK
🔄
89'
J. Turfkruier ↔ V. Ronnberg
VPS

VPS vs SJK Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.5%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 65.5%
Draw 4.3%
SJK Win 30.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS1.38
SJK1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
25 GF / 16 GA
SJK SJK
WLDWL
24 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.26
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
11
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
10
1.93
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 18 matches
SJK SJK 19 matches
VPS Statistic SJK
7 Wins 5
7 Draws 7
4 Losses 7
25 Goals For 24
16 Goals Against 26
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
11 BTTS Yes 12
12 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 6
1.93 Shots On Goal 2
4.36 Total Shots 5.07
2 Corners 2.14
26.4% Ball Possession 21.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by VPS's more proactive style and SJK's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. VPS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 21 points compared to SJK in 10 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring SJK. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

VPS Analysis

VPS come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 21 points from 13 matches. The record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 17:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Smyth (2 goals), with creative support from J. Muzinga (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

SJK Analysis

So far, SJK have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 11 points from 13 matches. The record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 15:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Elias Mastokangas (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 9 times, SJK won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:22 from VPS's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-5-2 / SJK 3-5-2
H2H summary: VPS wins 9, draws 2, SJK wins 4

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6
VPS Home
22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10
SJK Away
22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)