FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
FT
1 - 0
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: P. Simani
VPS
Match Timeline
SJK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
S. Bagayogo
SJK
13'
M. Haukioja · Assist: M. Haukioja
VPS
🟨
17'
Kelwin
SJK
🟨
25'
M. Haukioja
VPS
🟨
41'
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
VPS
🟨
41'
S. Yakubu
SJK
🔄
42'
O. Vaisto ↔ K. Yao
SJK
🔄
46'
J. Muzinga ↔ X. Odhiambo
VPS
49'
X. Odhiambo
VPS
🟨
51'
L. Mane
VPS
🔄
62'
Caio Araujo ↔ Rangel
SJK
🔄
62'
M. Suso ↔ A. Bostrom
SJK
🔄
62'
Kelwin ↔ K. Paananen
SJK
🟨
68'
X. Odhiambo
VPS
🔄
75'
K. Kouassivi-Benissan ↔ S. Lindholm
VPS
🔄
75'
P. Lima ↔ A. Raisanen
VPS
🔄
81'
L. Smyth ↔ Y. Daoussi
VPS
🔄
85'
M. Arsalo ↔ E. Mastokangas
SJK
🔄
89'
J. Turfkruier ↔ V. Ronnberg
VPS
🟨
90+4'
J. Nuorela
VPS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.5%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.5%
2.05
BTTS Yes
88%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.68
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
2.88
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 65.5%
Draw 4.3%
SJK Win 30.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS1.38
SJK1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
25 GF / 16 GA
SJK SJK
WLDWL
24 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.26
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
11
BTTS Yes
12
7
Over 2.5
10
1.93
Shots on Goal
1.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 18 matches
SJK SJK 19 matches
VPS Statistic SJK
7 Wins 5
7 Draws 7
4 Losses 7
25 Goals For 24
16 Goals Against 26
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
11 BTTS Yes 12
12 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 6
1.93 Shots On Goal 1.71
4.36 Total Shots 4.14
2 Corners 1.5
26.4% Ball Possession 17.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by VPS's more proactive style and SJK's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. VPS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 21 points compared to SJK in 10 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring SJK. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

VPS Analysis

VPS come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 21 points from 13 matches. The record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 17:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through L. Smyth (2 goals), with creative support from J. Muzinga (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

SJK Analysis

So far, SJK have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 11 points from 13 matches. The record of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 15:21 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Elias Mastokangas (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 8 times, SJK won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 32:25 from VPS's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-5-2 / SJK 3-5-2
H2H summary: VPS wins 8, draws 2, SJK wins 5
Stats
VPS VPS
SJK SJK
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
0
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
2
0 Corner Kicks 3
5 Fouls 8
1 Offsides 0
48% Ball Possession 52%
2 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Goal 3
1 Shots off Goal 0
0 Blocked Shots 2
2 Shots insidebox 4
0 Shots outsidebox 1
3 Goalkeeper Saves 1
168 Total passes 135
131 Passes accurate 99
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

VPS
Formation
SJK
Mamadou Jalloh
Mamadou Jalloh
Razak Simpson
Razak Simpson
Emmanuel Okereke
Emmanuel Okereke
Martti Haukioja
🎯
Martti Haukioja
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
Lassana Mané
Lassana Mané
Paulo Lima
Paulo Lima
Jayden Turfkruier
Jayden Turfkruier
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
Luka Smyth
Luka Smyth
Jonathan Muzinga
Jonathan Muzinga
Roope Paunio
Roope Paunio
Souleymane Bagayogo
Souleymane Bagayogo
Sayibu Yakubu
Sayibu Yakubu
Oskari Väistö
Oskari Väistö
Salim Giabo Yussif
Salim Giabo Yussif
Markus Arsalo
Markus Arsalo
Gospel Chibueze Junior Onuoha
Gospel Chibueze Junior Onuoha
Eetu Mömmö
Eetu Mömmö
Caio Araújo
Caio Araújo
Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
Muhammed Suso
Muhammed Suso
VPS 3-4-3
Starting XI
41
Mamadou Jalloh
G
3
Razak Simpson
D
6
Emmanuel Okereke
D
19
Martti Haukioja
⚽ 13' 🎯 13' 🟨 25'
D
13
Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi
D
2
Lassana Mané
🟨 51'
D
8
Paulo Lima
↓ 75'
M
7
Jayden Turfkruier
↓ 89'
M
27
Kevin Kouassivi-Benissan
↓ 75' 🟨 41'
M
15
Luka Smyth
↓ 81'
F
11
Jonathan Muzinga
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
20
Xavier Odhiambo
⚽ 49' ↑ 46' 🟨 68'
F
34
Antti-Ville Räisänen
↑ 75'
M
14
Simon Lindholm
↑ 75'
M
24
Yassin Daoussi
↑ 81'
M
5
Vilmer Ronnberg
↑ 89'
D
1
Aleksi Piispa
G
33
Akon Kuek
D
23
Miika Niemi
D
26
Rasmus Forsbacka
M
SJK 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
1
Roope Paunio
G
43
Souleymane Bagayogo
🟨 11'
D
32
Sayibu Yakubu
🟨 41'
D
5
Oskari Väistö
↓ 42'
D
6
Salim Giabo Yussif
D
18
Markus Arsalo
↓ 85'
M
31
Gospel Chibueze Junior Onuoha
M
15
Eetu Mömmö
D
42
Caio Araújo
M
7
Kelwin Souza do Nascimento
↓ 62' 🟨 17'
F
47
Muhammed Suso
↓ 62'
M
Substitutes
61
Koble Yao
D
8
Aapo Bostrom
↑ 62'
M
10
Kasper Paananen
↑ 62'
M
99
Rangel
↑ 62'
F
19
Elias Mastokangas
↑ 85'
M
60
Samuel Friday James
G
26
Jaakko Moisio
D
19
Vertti Hänninen
M
33
Aniis Machaal
M
Last matches: VPS
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
Last matches: SJK
04.07.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
3
1
W
27.06.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
SJK
VPS
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
SJK
Lahti
3
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
3
L
23.05.26
Vei
SJK
AC Oulu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
SJK
FF Jaro
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
SJK
Mariehamn
3
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fri
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
18.03.26
Fri
SJK
FF Jaro
2
1
W
14.03.26
Fri
SJK
Gnistan
3
1
W
07.03.26
Fri
SJK
Turku PS
1
1
D
17.07.25
UEF
SJK
KI Klaksvik
0
2
L
H2H: VPS vs SJK
17.06.26
H2H
SJK
VPS
1
2
W
21.02.26
H2H
SJK
VPS
0
6
W
10.08.25
H2H
VPS
SJK
1
2
L
12.05.25
H2H
SJK
VPS
2
3
W
22.02.25
H2H
SJK
VPS
0
1
W
28.09.24
H2H
SJK
VPS
1
4
W
12.08.24
H2H
SJK
VPS
3
1
L
25.06.24
H2H
SJK
VPS
5
1
L
12.04.24
H2H
VPS
SJK
1
1
D
09.03.24
H2H
SJK
VPS
2
2
D
27.01.24
H2H
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
21.10.23
H2H
SJK
VPS
0
2
W
09.08.23
H2H
VPS
SJK
3
2
W
08.06.23
H2H
SJK
VPS
2
1
L
04.02.23
H2H
SJK
VPS
3
2
L
Last matches: VPS
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H at home: VPS
10.08.25
H2H
VPS
SJK
1
2
L
12.04.24
H2H
VPS
SJK
1
1
D
27.01.24
H2H
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
09.08.23
H2H
VPS
SJK
3
2
W
Last matches: SJK
27.06.26
Vei
SJK
Ilves
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
SJK
Inter Turku
1
1
D
13.06.26
Vei
SJK
Lahti
3
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
SJK
Gnistan
2
3
L
08.05.26
Vei
SJK
KuPS
0
0
D
18.04.26
Vei
SJK
Turku PS
0
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
SJK
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
14.03.26
Fri
SJK
Gnistan
3
1
W
17.07.25
UEF
SJK
KI Klaksvik
0
2
L
H2H away: SJK
10.08.25
H2H
VPS
SJK
1
2
W
12.04.24
H2H
VPS
SJK
1
1
D
27.01.24
H2H
VPS
SJK
2
1
L
09.08.23
H2H
VPS
SJK
3
2
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.37
Draw 3.77
Home 2.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.97
Draw 2.38
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.21
Over 2.25 1.49
Over 2.5 1.68
Over 2.75 1.85
Over 3.0 2.12
Over 3.25 2.40
Over 3.5 2.67
Over 4.5 4.83
Under 1.5 4.53
Under 2.25 2.68
Under 2.5 2.24
Under 2.75 2.01
Under 3.0 1.75
Under 3.25 1.59
Under 3.5 1.48
Under 4.5 1.19
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 3.40
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.38
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.60
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.38
Draw 3.68
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.92
Draw 2.28
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.52
Draw 2.65
Home 2.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.08
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 1.75 1.22
Over 2.0 1.27
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.66
Over 2.75 1.82
Over 3.0 2.02
Over 3.25 2.25
Over 3.5 2.51
Over 3.75 2.92
Over 4.0 3.78
Over 4.25 4.10
Over 4.5 4.40
Over 4.75 5.45
Over 5.0 7.40
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 12.30
Under 1.0 9.00
Under 1.25 5.56
Under 1.5 4.05
Under 1.75 3.72
Under 2.0 3.30
Under 2.25 2.59
Under 2.5 2.18
Under 2.75 1.95
Under 3.0 1.68
Under 3.25 1.52
Under 3.5 1.42
Under 3.75 1.31
Under 4.0 1.19
Under 4.25 1.16
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 4.75 1.08
Under 5.0 1.03
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.50
Home 1.92
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.33
Home 2.38
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 2.65
Home 2.28
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.19
Over 2.0 1.29
Over 2.25 1.47
Over 2.5 1.65
Over 2.75 1.82
Over 3.0 2.08
Over 3.25 2.35
Over 3.5 2.63
Over 3.75 3.15
Over 4.0 4.10
Over 4.25 4.40
Over 4.5 4.70
Over 4.75 5.60
Over 5.0 8.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.0 3.25
Under 2.25 2.45
Under 2.5 2.07
Under 2.75 1.86
Under 3.0 1.64
Under 3.25 1.50
Under 3.5 1.42
Under 3.75 1.30
Under 4.0 1.19
Under 4.25 1.16
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 4.75 1.10
Under 5.0 1.05

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3
VPS Home
15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8 15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9 15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10
SJK Away
15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)