FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: A. Munukka
VPS
Match Timeline
Mariehamn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
L. Smyth · Assist: K. Kouassivi-Benissan
VPS
32'
O. Ogunniyi · Assist: K. Kouassivi-Benissan
VPS
🔄
63'
A. Stroud ↔ A. Huttunen
Mariehamn
🔄
63'
M. Hyvonen ↔ V. Widlund
Mariehamn
🔄
63'
L. Andersson ↔ A. Bergvik
Mariehamn
🔄
66'
J. Muzinga ↔ O. Keturi
VPS
🔄
67'
R. Simpson ↔ M. Niemi
VPS
🔄
67'
K. Kouassivi-Benissan ↔ A. Raisanen
VPS
75'
O. Keturi
VPS
🔄
76'
J. Turfkruier ↔ V. Ronnberg
VPS
🔄
78'
J. Heyden ↔ T. Koivisto
Mariehamn
🔄
78'
A. Larsson ↔ W. Nunez
Mariehamn
🔄
82'
P. Lima ↔ A. Kuek
VPS
90'
A. Kuek · Assist: V. Ronnberg
VPS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 88%
Draw 5.6%
Mariehamn Win 6.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS1.47
Mariehamn0.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
21 GF / 16 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
11 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
0.65
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.82
11
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
7
1.77
Shots on Goal
1.54

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 17 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 17 matches
VPS Statistic Mariehamn
6 Wins 1
7 Draws 6
4 Losses 10
21 Goals For 11
16 Goals Against 31
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 0.65
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.82
11 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 14
6 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 0
5 Failed To Score 9
1.77 Shots On Goal 1.54
3.92 Total Shots 4
1.92 Corners 2.08
24.9% Ball Possession 23.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around VPS's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Mariehamn arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mariehamn. VPS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 20 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Mariehamn in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

VPS Analysis

VPS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 20 points after 12 matches. They have recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a 16:10 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on L. Smyth (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 4 points from 12 matches. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 6:23 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Anttoni Huttunen (1 goals), Sebastian Dahlström (1 goals), with creative support from Yeboah Amankwah (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 8 times, Mariehamn won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from VPS's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.4%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / Mariehamn 4-4-1-1
H2H summary: VPS wins 8, draws 3, Mariehamn wins 4
Stats
VPS VPS
Mariehamn Mariehamn
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
3 Corner Kicks 2
6 Fouls 6
2 Offsides 2
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Goal 1
4 Shots off Goal 1
2 Blocked Shots 1
1 Goalkeeper Saves 2
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

VPS
Formation
Mariehamn
M. Jalloh
M. Jalloh
R. Simpson
R. Simpson
E. Okereke
E. Okereke
M. Haukioja
M. Haukioja
O. Ogunniyi
O. Ogunniyi
L. Mane
L. Mane
P. Lima
P. Lima
J. Turfkruier
J. Turfkruier
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
🎯
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
J. Muzinga
J. Muzinga
L. Smyth
L. Smyth
M. Riikonen
M. Riikonen
A. Soiniemi
A. Soiniemi
Y. Amankwah
Y. Amankwah
N. Nurmi
N. Nurmi
S. Ngulube
S. Ngulube
E. Patut
E. Patut
A. Stroud
A. Stroud
J. Heyden
J. Heyden
L. Andersson
L. Andersson
M. Hyvonen
M. Hyvonen
A. Larsson
A. Larsson
VPS 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
41
M. Jalloh
3
R. Simpson
↓ 67'
6
E. Okereke
19
M. Haukioja
13
O. Ogunniyi
⚽ 32'
2
L. Mane
8
P. Lima
↓ 82'
7
J. Turfkruier
↓ 76'
27
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
🎯 3' 🎯 32' ↓ 67'
11
J. Muzinga
↓ 66'
15
L. Smyth
⚽ 3'
Substitutes
1
A. Piispa
23
M. Niemi
↑ 67'
16
R. Forsbacka
33
A. Kuek
⚽ 90' ↑ 82'
34
A. Raisanen
↑ 67'
24
Y. Daoussi
5
V. Ronnberg
🎯 90' ↑ 76'
35
O. Keturi
⚽ 75' ↑ 66'
Mariehamn 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
32
M. Riikonen
3
A. Soiniemi
38
Y. Amankwah
2
N. Nurmi
31
S. Ngulube
20
E. Patut
18
A. Stroud
↓ 63'
8
J. Heyden
↓ 78'
43
L. Andersson
↓ 63'
64
M. Hyvonen
↓ 63'
7
A. Larsson
↓ 78'
Substitutes
1
K. Lund
28
J. Nissinen
16
A. Huttunen
↑ 63'
5
T. Koivisto
↑ 78'
9
W. Nunez
↑ 78'
23
V. Widlund
↑ 63'
14
A. Bergvik
↑ 63'
Last matches: VPS
18.07.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H: VPS vs Mariehamn
04.07.26
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
02.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
W
21.09.25
H2H
Mariehamn
VPS
2
1
L
01.08.25
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
14.06.25
H2H
Mariehamn
VPS
1
5
W
28.07.24
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
W
12.06.24
H2H
Mariehamn
VPS
0
0
D
03.09.23
H2H
Mariehamn
VPS
1
2
W
05.05.23
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
W
16.10.22
H2H
Mariehamn
VPS
2
2
D
09.07.22
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
3
L
29.05.22
H2H
Mariehamn
VPS
1
3
W
19.08.19
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
W
26.05.19
H2H
Mariehamn
VPS
1
0
L
16.05.19
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
3
L
Last matches: VPS
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H at home: VPS
04.07.26
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
01.08.25
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
28.07.24
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
W
05.05.23
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
W
09.07.22
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
3
L
19.08.19
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
W
16.05.19
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
3
L
Last matches: Mariehamn
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H away: Mariehamn
04.07.26
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
L
01.08.25
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
28.07.24
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
L
05.05.23
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
L
09.07.22
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
3
W
19.08.19
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
2
1
L
16.05.19
H2H
VPS
Mariehamn
1
3
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 6 1 29:15 14 33
W W W W D
2 16 8 7 1 23:12 11 31
D W D D D
3
VPS Home
16 7 6 3 23:13 10 27
L W W D W
4 16 8 2 6 20:20 0 26
L L D L W
5 16 7 4 5 27:20 7 25
W L L W D
6 16 7 4 5 25:20 5 25
W W L D D
7 16 6 4 6 20:15 5 22
W W W D D
8 16 6 4 6 20:19 1 22
L W L W D
9 16 5 4 7 28:30 -2 19
W L D L W
10 16 3 5 8 18:25 -7 14
L L W D D
11 16 2 6 8 15:32 -17 12
D W L D L
12 16 0 4 12 8:35 -27 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)