Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
88%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
67.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 8.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
VPS
Mariehamn
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
VPS
17 matches
Mariehamn
17 matches
| VPS | Statistic | Mariehamn |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Wins | 1 |
| 7 | Draws | 6 |
| 4 | Losses | 10 |
| 21 | Goals For | 11 |
| 16 | Goals Against | 31 |
| 1.24 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.65 |
| 0.94 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.82 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 8 |
| 11 | Over 1.5 | 14 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 7 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 3 | Clean Sheets | 0 |
| 5 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 1.77 | Shots On Goal | 1.54 |
| 3.92 | Total Shots | 4 |
| 1.92 | Corners | 2.08 |
| 24.9% | Ball Possession | 23.8% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around VPS's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Mariehamn arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Mariehamn. VPS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 20 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Mariehamn in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
VPS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 20 points after 12 matches. They have recorded 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, with a 16:10 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on L. Smyth (1 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.
Mariehamn approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 4 points from 12 matches. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 6:23 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Anttoni Huttunen (1 goals), Sebastian Dahlström (1 goals), with creative support from Yeboah Amankwah (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 8 times, Mariehamn won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:18 from VPS's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
VPS
4
1
4
1
2
1
Lineups
VPS
HJK Helsinki
VPS
SJK
VPS
Gnistan
VPS
AC Oulu
VPS
SJK
VPS
KuPS
VPS
Turku PS
VPS
HJK Helsinki
VPS
Lahti
VPS
Gnistan
VPS
Mariehamn
VPS
Ilves
VPS
AC Oulu
VPS
FF Jaro
VPS
Inter Turku
VPS
Haka
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
VPS
Turku PS
VPS
Umeå FC
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
Gnistan
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
Gnistan
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
VPS
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
Ilves
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Turku PS
Mariehamn
EIF
Mariehamn
Sandviken
Mariehamn
KuPS
Mariehamn
Sleipner
VPS
SJK
VPS
AC Oulu
VPS
KuPS
VPS
HJK Helsinki
VPS
Gnistan
VPS
Ilves
VPS
FF Jaro
VPS
Haka
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
VPS
Umeå FC
Mariehamn
Gnistan
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
Mariehamn
Lahti
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
Mariehamn
SJK
Mariehamn
Sandviken
Mariehamn
KuPS
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 29:15 | 14 | 33 |
W
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 23:12 | 11 | 31 |
D
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 3 |
VPS
Home
|
16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23:13 | 10 | 27 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
| 4 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 20:20 | 0 | 26 |
L
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 27:20 | 7 | 25 |
W
L
L
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25:20 | 5 | 25 |
W
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 7 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20:15 | 5 | 22 |
W
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 8 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 20:19 | 1 | 22 |
L
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 9 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 28:30 | -2 | 19 |
W
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 10 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 18:25 | -7 | 14 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 11 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 15:32 | -17 | 12 |
D
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 12 |
Mariehamn
Away
|
16 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 8:35 | -27 | 4 |
L
L
L
L
L
|