FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
31.08.2026 16:00
FT
0 - 1
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: Dennis Antamo, Finland
VPS
Match Timeline
Lahti
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
Aaron Lindholm · Assist: Martim Ferreira
Lahti
🟨
84'
Armend Kabashi
Lahti
🟨
89'
Aaron Lindholm
Lahti

VPS vs Lahti Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.5%
Odds 2.12
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.5%
2.12
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.78
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
3.02
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 50.5%
Draw 14.1%
Lahti Win 35.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS1.18
Lahti1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
33 GF / 26 GA
Lahti Lahti
WLDWL
32 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
15
BTTS Yes
13
11
Over 2.5
9
1.55
Shots on Goal
2.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 25 matches
Lahti Lahti 25 matches
VPS Statistic Lahti
10 Wins 9
7 Draws 8
8 Losses 8
33 Goals For 32
26 Goals Against 24
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
15 BTTS Yes 13
16 Over 1.5 18
11 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 8
6 Failed To Score 6
1.55 Shots On Goal 2.05
3.6 Total Shots 6.15
1.6 Corners 2.55
24% Ball Possession 28.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lahti. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lahti in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lahti having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. VPS have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

VPS Analysis

With 33 points from 21 games and a place of 5, VPS still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 29:21 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Smyth (3 goals), Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi (1 goals), with creative support from J. Turfkruier (1 assists), K. Kouassivi-Benissan (1 assists), J. Muzinga (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Lahti Analysis

So far, Lahti have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 29 points from 21 matches. The record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 25:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Martim Ferreira (1 goals), Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Y. Cassubie (1 goals), with creative support from Martim Ferreira (1 assists), Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), R. Sans (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 5 times, Lahti won 2 times, while 8 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:13 from VPS's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.9%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-2-1 / Lahti 4-3-3
H2H summary: VPS wins 5, draws 8, Lahti wins 2

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6
VPS Home
22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7
Lahti Away
22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)