FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
FT
1 - 1
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: P. Simani
VPS
Match Timeline
KuPS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
14'
L. Smyth
VPS
🟨
25'
Kasim Adams
KuPS
26'
Luka Smyth
VPS
🟨
35'
Jaime Moreno
KuPS
🟨
40'
Arttu Lötjönen
KuPS
🟨
42'
Luka Smyth
VPS
🔄
46'
K. Adams ↔ B. Magassa
KuPS
🔄
57'
G. Engvall ↔ A. Heinonen
KuPS
🔄
57'
O. Ruoppi ↔ J. Luyeye-Lutumba
KuPS
🔄
57'
T. Hamalainen ↔ S. Heiskanen
KuPS
🟨
62'
Yassin Daoussi
VPS
🔄
65'
L. Smyth ↔ A. Raisanen
VPS
🔄
65'
Y. Daoussi ↔ J. Turfkruier
VPS
72'
J. J. Moreno Ciorciari
KuPS
🟨
75'
Jayden Turfkruier
VPS
🔄
79'
V. Ronnberg ↔ M. Haukioja
VPS
🔄
79'
J. Muzinga ↔ O. Ogunniyi
VPS
🟥
82'
Brahima Magassa
KuPS
83'
Jayden Turfkruier
VPS
🟨
87'
Valentín Gasc
KuPS
🔄
88'
K. Kouassivi-Benissan ↔ O. Keturi
VPS
🔄
88'
J. J. Moreno Ciorciari ↔ S. Savolainen
KuPS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 94.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
94.7%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 51.2%
Draw 5.3%
KuPS Win 43.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS0.84
KuPS1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
12 GF / 12 GA
KuPS KuPS
WLDWL
19 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
1.36
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
7
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
4
1
Shots on Goal
3.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 13 matches
KuPS KuPS 14 matches
VPS Statistic KuPS
4 Wins 7
5 Draws 6
4 Losses 1
12 Goals For 19
12 Goals Against 10
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
7 BTTS Yes 7
7 Over 1.5 10
4 Over 2.5 4
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 3
1 Shots On Goal 3.36
2.67 Total Shots 7.36
2 Corners 2.82
18.6% Ball Possession 28.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors KuPS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and KuPS in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward KuPS having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

VPS Analysis

VPS sit 6 with 13 points after 9 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:7 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on Luka Smyth (3 goals), S. Lindholm (2 goals), J. Muzinga (1 goals), with creative support from Jayden Turfkruier (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

KuPS Analysis

KuPS come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 20 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, while the 16:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on J. J. Moreno Ciorciari (5 goals), B. Armah (4 goals), O. Ruoppi (3 goals), with creative support from O. Ruoppi (3 assists), P. Pennanen (2 assists), S. Savolainen (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 3 times, KuPS won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:26 from VPS's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / KuPS 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: VPS wins 3, draws 4, KuPS wins 8

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
KuPS Away
22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6
VPS Home
22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)