FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA

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VPS

1 - 1

KuPS

Lemonsoft Stadion

Referee: P. Simani

VPS

Match Timeline

KuPS

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

No Draw

Probability 94.7%

Odds 1.30

BTTS

Yes

Probability 63.2%

Odds 1.80

Over / Under 2.5

Under 2.5

Probability 51.1%

Odds 1.75

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	No Draw	94.7%	1.30	▥
BTTS	Yes	63.2%	1.80	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Under 2.5	51.1%	1.75	▥
Corners O/U	Under 10.5 Corners	92%	1.66	▥
HT / FT	Draw / Away	-	5.50	▥
Correct Score	0-1	-	7.50	▥

Probability Distribution

VPS Win 51.2%

Draw 5.3%

KuPS Win 43.5%

Expected Goals (xG)

VPS0.84

KuPS1.18

Recent Form (Last 5)

VPS

WWDLW

12 GF / 12 GA

KuPS

WLDWL

19 GF / 10 GA

Key Stats

0.92

Average Goals Scored

1.36

0.92

Average Goals Conceded

0.71

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

Shots on Goal

3.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS 13 matches

KuPS 14 matches

VPS	Statistic	KuPS
4	Wins	7
5	Draws	6
4	Losses	1
12	Goals For	19
12	Goals Against	10
0.92	Avg Goals Scored	1.36
0.92	Avg Goals Conceded	0.71
7	BTTS Yes	7
7	Over 1.5	10
4	Over 2.5	4
1	Over 3.5	2
3	Clean Sheets	6
5	Failed To Score	3
1	Shots On Goal	3.36
2.67	Total Shots	7.36
2	Corners	2.82
18.6%	Ball Possession	28.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors KuPS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and KuPS in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward KuPS having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

VPS Analysis

VPS sit 6 with 13 points after 9 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:7 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on Luka Smyth (3 goals), S. Lindholm (2 goals), J. Muzinga (1 goals), with creative support from Jayden Turfkruier (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

KuPS Analysis

KuPS come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 20 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 5 draws, and 1 losses, while the 16:10 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on J. J. Moreno Ciorciari (5 goals), B. Armah (4 goals), O. Ruoppi (3 goals), with creative support from O. Ruoppi (3 assists), P. Pennanen (2 assists), S. Savolainen (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 3 times, KuPS won 10 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:29 from VPS's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)

Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / KuPS 4-2-3-1

H2H summary: VPS wins 3, draws 2, KuPS wins 10

Stats

VPS

KuPS

Shots on Goal
2

Shots on Goal
4

Shots off Goal
2

Shots off Goal
6

Blocked Shots
2

Blocked Shots
9

2 Corner Kicks 10

17 Fouls 13

2 Offsides 1

43% Ball Possession 57%

6 Total Shots 19

2 Shots on Goal 4

2 Shots off Goal 6

2 Blocked Shots 9

4 Shots insidebox 6

2 Shots outsidebox 13

3 Goalkeeper Saves 1

356 Total passes 488

283 Passes accurate 408

1.99 expected_goals 2.30

🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨

🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

VPS

Formation

KuPS

M. Jalloh

M. Niemi

E. Okereke

↓

V. Ronnberg

↓

K. Kouassivi-Benissan

L. Mane

P. Lima

↓

Y. Daoussi

S. Lindholm

⚽ 2 ↓

L. Smyth

↓

J. Muzinga

J. Kreidl

↓

T. Hamalainen

A. Lotjonen

↓

K. Adams

C. Antwi

V. R. Gasc

P. Pennanen

↓

G. Engvall

↓

O. Ruoppi

B. Armah

⚽ ↓

J. J. Moreno Ciorciari

VPS 3-4-1-2

Starting XI

M. Jalloh

M. Niemi

E. Okereke

V. Ronnberg

↓ 79'

K. Kouassivi-Benissan

↓ 88'

L. Mane

P. Lima

Y. Daoussi

↓ 65' 🟨 62'

S. Lindholm

L. Smyth

⚽ 14' ⚽ 26' ↓ 65' 🟨 42'

J. Muzinga

↓ 79'

Substitutes

A. Piispa

R. Forsbacka

A. Kuek

A. Raisanen

↑ 65'

M. Haukioja

↑ 79'

J. Turfkruier

⚽ 83' ↑ 65' 🟨 75'

O. Ogunniyi

↑ 79'

O. Keturi

↑ 88'

KuPS 4-2-3-1

Starting XI

J. Kreidl

T. Hamalainen

↓ 57'

A. Lotjonen

🟨 40'

K. Adams

↓ 46' 🟨 25'

C. Antwi

V. R. Gasc

🟨 87'

P. Pennanen

G. Engvall

↓ 57'

O. Ruoppi

↓ 57'

B. Armah

J. J. Moreno Ciorciari

⚽ 72' ↓ 88' 🟨 35'

Substitutes

H. Riihimaki

S. Savolainen

↑ 88'

A. Heinonen

↑ 57'

J. Luyeye-Lutumba

↑ 57'

A. Puukko

B. Magassa

↑ 46' 🟥 82'

S. Heiskanen

↑ 57'

N. Kujasalo

K. Ward

Last matches: VPS

30.05.26

Vei

VPS

Turku PS

22.05.26

Vei

VPS

HJK Helsinki

18.05.26

Vei

VPS

Lahti

09.05.26

Vei

VPS

Gnistan

02.05.26

Vei

VPS

Mariehamn

24.04.26

Vei

VPS

Ilves

18.04.26

Vei

VPS

AC Oulu

10.04.26

Vei

VPS

FF Jaro

04.04.26

Vei

VPS

Inter Turku

27.03.26

Fri

VPS

Haka

20.03.26

Fri

VPS

GIF Sundsvall

14.03.26

Fri

VPS

Turku PS

08.03.26

Fri

VPS

Umeå FC

Last matches: KuPS

30.05.26

Vei

KuPS

Inter Turku

23.05.26

Vei

KuPS

Lahti

20.05.26

Vei

KuPS

FF Jaro

16.05.26

Vei

KuPS

Mariehamn

08.05.26

Vei

KuPS

SJK

02.05.26

Vei

KuPS

AC Oulu

26.04.26

Vei

KuPS

HJK Helsinki

22.04.26

Vei

KuPS

AC Oulu

18.04.26

Vei

KuPS

FF Jaro

11.04.26

Vei

KuPS

Gnistan

04.04.26

Vei

KuPS

Ilves

27.03.26

Fri

KuPS

SJK

21.03.26

Fri

KuPS

JIPPO

14.03.26

Fri

KuPS

Mariehamn

26.02.26

UEF

KuPS

Lech Poznan

19.02.26

UEF

KuPS

Lech Poznan

18.12.25

UEF

KuPS

Crystal Palace

11.12.25

UEF

KuPS

Lausanne

27.11.25

UEF

KuPS

Jagiellonia

06.11.25

UEF

KuPS

Slovan Bratislava

H2H: VPS vs KuPS

31.01.26

H2H

KuPS

VPS

19.07.25

H2H

VPS

KuPS

25.05.25

H2H

KuPS

VPS

01.02.25

H2H

KuPS

VPS

14.09.24

H2H

KuPS

VPS

22.05.24

H2H

VPS

KuPS

10.05.24

H2H

KuPS

VPS

08.02.24

H2H

KuPS

VPS

17.09.23

H2H

KuPS

VPS

08.07.23

H2H

KuPS

VPS

11.06.23

H2H

VPS

KuPS

25.02.23

H2H

KuPS

VPS

11.09.22

H2H

VPS

KuPS

29.04.22

H2H

KuPS

VPS

29.01.22

H2H

KuPS

VPS

Last matches: VPS

22.05.26

Vei

VPS

HJK Helsinki

09.05.26

Vei

VPS

Gnistan

24.04.26

Vei

VPS

Ilves

10.04.26

Vei

VPS

FF Jaro

27.03.26

Fri

VPS

Haka

20.03.26

Fri

VPS

GIF Sundsvall

08.03.26

Fri

VPS

Umeå FC

H2H at home: VPS

19.07.25

H2H

VPS

KuPS

22.05.24

H2H

VPS

KuPS

11.06.23

H2H

VPS

KuPS

11.09.22

H2H

VPS

KuPS

Last matches: KuPS

16.05.26

Vei

KuPS

Mariehamn

02.05.26

Vei

KuPS

AC Oulu

18.04.26

Vei

KuPS

FF Jaro

04.04.26

Vei

KuPS

Ilves

27.03.26

Fri

KuPS

SJK

26.02.26

UEF

KuPS

Lech Poznan

18.12.25

UEF

KuPS

Crystal Palace

27.11.25

UEF

KuPS

Jagiellonia

23.10.25

UEF

KuPS

Breidablik

21.08.25

UEF

KuPS

FC Midtjylland

06.08.25

UEF

KuPS

Rīgas FS

29.07.25

UEF

KuPS

Kairat Almaty

15.07.25

UEF

KuPS

Milsami Orhei

H2H away: KuPS

19.07.25

H2H

VPS

KuPS

22.05.24

H2H

VPS

KuPS

11.06.23

H2H

VPS

KuPS

11.09.22

H2H

VPS

KuPS

Showing odds from: 1xBet

Main markets

MATCH WINNER

Away 2.24

Draw 3.31

Home 3.51

FIRST HALF WINNER

Away 2.97

Draw 2.18

Home 4.10

GOALS OVER/UNDER

Over 1.5 1.37

Over 1.75 1.47

Over 2.0 1.61

Over 2.25 1.89

Over 2.5 2.16

Over 2.75 2.51

Over 3.0 2.88

Over 3.5 3.94

Over 4.5 7.42

Under 1.5 3.20

Under 1.75 2.83

Under 2.0 2.43

Under 2.25 2.00

Under 2.5 1.75

Under 2.75 1.57

Under 3.0 1.45

Under 3.5 1.27

Under 4.5 1.11

Main markets

MATCH WINNER

Away 2.15

Draw 3.20

Home 3.20

FIRST HALF WINNER

Away 2.75

Draw 2.20

Home 3.75

SECOND HALF WINNER

Away 2.50

Draw 2.40

Home 3.40

GOALS OVER/UNDER

Over 0.5 1.06

Over 1.5 1.36

Over 2.5 2.10

Over 3.5 3.75

Over 4.5 8.00

Over 5.5 19.00

Over 6.5 41.00

Under 0.5 10.00

Under 1.5 3.00

Under 2.5 1.70

Under 3.5 1.25

Under 4.5 1.08

Under 5.5 1.02

Under 6.5 1.00

Main markets

MATCH WINNER

Away 2.17

Draw 3.22

Home 3.38

FIRST HALF WINNER

Away 2.79

Draw 2.00

Home 4.22

SECOND HALF WINNER

Away 2.47

Draw 2.38

Home 3.71

GOALS OVER/UNDER

Over 0.5 1.03

Over 0.75 1.04

Over 1.0 1.06

Over 1.25 1.18

Over 1.5 1.32

Over 1.75 1.41

Over 2.0 1.54

Over 2.25 1.84

Over 2.5 2.08

Over 2.75 2.33

Over 3.0 2.90

Over 3.25 3.16

Over 3.5 3.44

Over 3.75 4.32

Over 4.0 5.95

Over 4.25 6.30

Over 4.5 6.65

Over 5.0 10.50

Over 5.5 15.00

Over 6.5 29.00

Under 0.5 7.50

Under 0.75 6.90

Under 1.0 6.35

Under 1.25 3.84

Under 1.5 2.89

Under 1.75 2.63

Under 2.0 2.27

Under 2.25 1.93

Under 2.5 1.72

Under 2.75 1.51

Under 3.0 1.34

Under 3.25 1.27

Under 3.5 1.23

Under 3.75 1.14

Under 4.0 1.07

Under 4.25 1.06

Under 4.5 1.05

Under 5.0 1.01

Under 5.5 1.02

Under 6.5 1.01

Main markets

MATCH WINNER

Away 2.10

Draw 3.25

Home 3.30

FIRST HALF WINNER

Away 2.65

Draw 2.14

Home 3.70

SECOND HALF WINNER

Away 2.45

Draw 2.50

Home 3.45

GOALS OVER/UNDER

Over 1.5 1.28

Over 2.0 1.48

Over 2.25 1.72

Over 2.5 1.96

Over 2.75 2.23

Over 3.0 2.75

Over 3.25 3.10

Over 3.5 3.40

Over 3.75 4.20

Over 4.0 5.75

Over 4.25 6.10

Over 4.5 6.40

Under 1.5 3.25

Under 2.0 2.50

Under 2.25 2.00

Under 2.5 1.73

Under 2.75 1.55

Under 3.0 1.37

Under 3.25 1.30

Under 3.5 1.26

Under 3.75 1.18

Under 4.0 1.09

Under 4.25 1.08

Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

Veikkausliiga

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Inter Turku	12	7	4	1	17:8	9	25	D D W W W
2	AC Oulu	11	7	1	3	16:8	8	22	D W W W L
3	KuPS Away	12	5	6	1	17:11	6	21	D D W W D
4	HJK Helsinki	11	5	3	3	18:10	8	18	W W L D L
5	Turku PS	10	4	3	3	11:9	2	15	L W L L W
6	Gnistan	10	4	2	4	16:15	1	14	W W L W D
7	VPS Home	10	3	5	2	9:8	1	14	D L W D D
8	Ilves	11	3	3	5	14:21	-7	12	W L W L D
9	Lahti	10	3	2	5	14:13	1	11	L W L D D
10	SJK	10	2	3	5	11:16	-5	9	W L L L D
11	FF Jaro	11	1	4	6	10:22	-12	7	L L W L L
12	Mariehamn	10	0	4	6	5:17	-12	4	L L L D D

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