FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
09.05.2026 14:00
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: Juho Nieminen, Finland
VPS
Match Timeline
Gnistan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Alexandro Craninx
Gnistan
⚽
7'
L. Smyth
VPS
🔄
44'
R. Gnanou ↔ J. Ojala
Gnistan
🔄
46'
S. Ylatupa ↔ D. Perez
Gnistan
🟨
54'
Paulo Lima
VPS
⚽
63'
A. Akinyemi · Assist: D. Perez
Gnistan
🔄
68'
J. Muzinga ↔ J. Vahtera
VPS
🔄
74'
J. Latonen ↔ V. Hanninen
Gnistan
🔄
78'
M. Haukioja ↔ M. Niemi
VPS
🔄
78'
L. Smyth ↔ O. Keturi
VPS
🟨
83'
Jayden Turfkruier
VPS
🔄
84'
S. Eremenko ↔ A. Jouhi
Gnistan
🟨
85'
Vertti Hänninen
Gnistan
🔄
90+1'
S. Lindholm ↔ O. Ogunniyi
VPS

VPS vs Gnistan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
61.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 88%
Draw 0%
Gnistan Win 12%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS1.26
Gnistan0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
8 GF / 8 GA
Gnistan Gnistan
WLDWL
9 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
0.82
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.82
4
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
5
0.4
Shots on Goal
2.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 9 matches
Gnistan Gnistan 11 matches
VPS Statistic Gnistan
3 Wins 2
3 Draws 2
3 Losses 7
8 Goals For 9
8 Goals Against 20
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.82
4 BTTS Yes 5
4 Over 1.5 9
3 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 4
0.4 Shots On Goal 2.4
2 Total Shots 8
1.8 Corners 3.6
16.2% Ball Possession 39%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by VPS's more proactive style and Gnistan's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. VPS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 8 points compared to Gnistan in 10 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gnistan. Gnistan arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Gnistan in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gnistan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

VPS Analysis

VPS are currently 6 in the standings with 8 points from 5 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 4:3 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Muzinga (1 goals), P. Lima (1 goals), S. Lindholm (1 goals), with creative support from Jayden Turfkruier (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan sit 10 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 4:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi (2 goals), Joakim Latonen (1 goals), S. Eremenko (1 goals), with creative support from A. Craninx (1 assists), Edmund Arko-Mensah (1 assists), Vertti Hänninen (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 5 times, Gnistan won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from VPS's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.85 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / Gnistan 3-4-3
H2H summary: VPS wins 5, draws 4, Gnistan wins 4

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
W D D L L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W W L W D
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
D D W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W D D W
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
L L L D W
6
VPS Home
22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L W L W
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
D L W W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L D D D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W W W L L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W D D D L
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
D D L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
L W L W W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs