FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: J. Nieminen
VPS
Match Timeline
Gnistan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
Alexandro Craninx
Gnistan
7'
L. Smyth
VPS
🔄
44'
R. Gnanou ↔ J. Ojala
Gnistan
🔄
46'
S. Ylatupa ↔ D. Perez
Gnistan
🟨
54'
Paulo Lima
VPS
63'
A. Akinyemi · Assist: D. Perez
Gnistan
🔄
68'
J. Muzinga ↔ J. Vahtera
VPS
🔄
74'
J. Latonen ↔ V. Hanninen
Gnistan
🔄
78'
M. Haukioja ↔ M. Niemi
VPS
🔄
78'
L. Smyth ↔ O. Keturi
VPS
🟨
83'
Jayden Turfkruier
VPS
🔄
84'
S. Eremenko ↔ A. Jouhi
Gnistan
🟨
85'
Vertti Hänninen
Gnistan
🔄
90+1'
S. Lindholm ↔ O. Ogunniyi
VPS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS BTTS No
61.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 88%
Draw 0%
Gnistan Win 12%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS1.26
Gnistan0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
8 GF / 8 GA
Gnistan Gnistan
WLDWL
9 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
0.82
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.82
4
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
5
0.4
Shots on Goal
2.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 9 matches
Gnistan Gnistan 11 matches
VPS Statistic Gnistan
3 Wins 2
3 Draws 2
3 Losses 7
8 Goals For 9
8 Goals Against 20
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.82
4 BTTS Yes 5
4 Over 1.5 9
3 Over 2.5 5
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 4
0.4 Shots On Goal 2.4
2 Total Shots 8
1.8 Corners 3.6
16.2% Ball Possession 39%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by VPS's more proactive style and Gnistan's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. VPS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 8 points compared to Gnistan in 10 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Gnistan. Gnistan arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Gnistan in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gnistan having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

VPS Analysis

VPS are currently 6 in the standings with 8 points from 5 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 4:3 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Muzinga (1 goals), P. Lima (1 goals), S. Lindholm (1 goals), with creative support from Jayden Turfkruier (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan sit 10 with 4 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 4:10 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi (2 goals), Joakim Latonen (1 goals), S. Eremenko (1 goals), with creative support from A. Craninx (1 assists), Edmund Arko-Mensah (1 assists), Vertti Hänninen (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 5 times, Gnistan won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from VPS's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.85 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / Gnistan 3-4-3
H2H summary: VPS wins 5, draws 4, Gnistan wins 4
Stats
VPS VPS
Gnistan Gnistan
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
8 Corner Kicks 4
14 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 1
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Goal 3
2 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 1
6 Shots insidebox 3
2 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
275 Total passes 307
207 Passes accurate 221
1.06 expected_goals 0.63
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

VPS
Formation
Gnistan
M. Jalloh
M. Jalloh
L. Mane
L. Mane
E. Okereke
E. Okereke
M. Haukioja
M. Haukioja
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
A. Raisanen
A. Raisanen
P. Lima
P. Lima
J. Turfkruier
J. Turfkruier
J. Muzinga
J. Muzinga
L. Smyth
L. Smyth
S. Lindholm
S. Lindholm
A. Craninx
A. Craninx
O. Hannula
O. Hannula
R. Gnanou
R. Gnanou
A. Obileye
A. Obileye
Marcelo Costa
Marcelo Costa
E. Arko-Mensah
E. Arko-Mensah
S. Ylatupa
S. Ylatupa
S. Eremenko
S. Eremenko
G. Europaeus
G. Europaeus
J. Latonen
J. Latonen
A. Akinyemi
A. Akinyemi
VPS 3-4-3
Starting XI
41
M. Jalloh
G
2
L. Mane
D
6
E. Okereke
D
19
M. Haukioja
↓ 78'
D
27
K. Kouassivi-Benissan
M
34
A. Raisanen
M
8
P. Lima
🟨 54'
M
7
J. Turfkruier
🟨 83'
M
11
J. Muzinga
↓ 68'
F
15
L. Smyth
⚽ 7' ↓ 78'
F
14
S. Lindholm
↓ 90+1'
F
Substitutes
12
L. Vayrynen
G
23
M. Niemi
↑ 78'
D
26
R. Forsbacka
M
33
A. Kuek
30
J. Vahtera
↑ 68'
F
24
Y. Daoussi
M
13
O. Ogunniyi
↑ 90+1'
F
35
O. Keturi
↑ 78'
F
Gnistan 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
A. Craninx
🟨 6'
G
27
O. Hannula
D
24
R. Gnanou
↓ 44'
D
67
A. Obileye
D
4
Marcelo Costa
D
12
E. Arko-Mensah
D
23
S. Ylatupa
↓ 46'
M
14
S. Eremenko
↓ 84'
M
15
G. Europaeus
M
10
J. Latonen
↓ 74'
F
17
A. Akinyemi
⚽ 63'
F
Substitutes
22
Ramilson
G
40
J. Ojala
↑ 44'
D
7
A. Atarah
M
11
D. Perez
🎯 63' ↑ 46'
M
19
V. Hanninen
↑ 74' 🟨 85'
M
2
B. Dahlstrom
D
20
M. H. Bjurstrom
D
31
A. Jouhi
↑ 84'
M
Last matches: VPS
25.07.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
3
L
18.07.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
Last matches: Gnistan
18.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
H2H: VPS vs Gnistan
27.06.26
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
09.05.26
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
15.08.25
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
0
0
D
18.06.25
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
0
0
D
23.10.24
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
0
1
L
04.08.24
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
3
0
L
20.04.24
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
3
2
W
16.10.21
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
4
W
18.07.21
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
2
0
L
12.05.21
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
2
0
W
25.10.20
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
3
5
L
30.08.20
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
2
W
15.03.19
H2H
Gnistan
VPS
1
3
W
Last matches: VPS
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H at home: VPS
09.05.26
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
18.06.25
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
0
0
D
23.10.24
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
0
1
L
20.04.24
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
3
2
W
12.05.21
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
2
0
W
25.10.20
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
3
5
L
Last matches: Gnistan
18.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
0
1
L
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gnistan
Ilves
0
1
L
H2H away: Gnistan
09.05.26
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
18.06.25
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
0
0
D
23.10.24
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
0
1
W
20.04.24
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
3
2
L
12.05.21
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
2
0
L
25.10.20
H2H
VPS
Gnistan
3
5
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 6 1 29:15 14 33
W W W W D
2 16 8 7 1 23:12 11 31
D W D D D
3
VPS Home
16 7 6 3 23:13 10 27
L W W D W
4 16 8 2 6 20:20 0 26
L L D L W
5 16 7 4 5 27:20 7 25
W L L W D
6 16 7 4 5 25:20 5 25
W W L D D
7 16 6 4 6 20:15 5 22
W W W D D
8 16 6 4 6 20:19 1 22
L W L W D
9 16 5 4 7 28:30 -2 19
W L D L W
10 17 3 6 8 17:33 -16 15
W D W L D
11 17 3 5 9 19:27 -8 14
L L L W D
12 16 0 4 12 8:35 -27 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)