FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
08.09.2026 15:00
Lemonsoft Stadion

VPS vs AC Oulu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.7%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.94
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.7%
1.30
BTTS No
50.8%
1.95
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.94
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
1.91
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40
Correct Score 2-0
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 43.2%
Draw 27.6%
AC Oulu Win 29.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS1.23
AC Oulu1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
33 GF / 27 GA
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WLDWL
29 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
15
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
9
1.55
Shots on Goal
1.9

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 26 matches
AC Oulu AC Oulu 24 matches
VPS Statistic AC Oulu
10 Wins 11
7 Draws 5
9 Losses 8
33 Goals For 29
27 Goals Against 28
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
15 BTTS Yes 11
16 Over 1.5 14
11 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 9
7 Failed To Score 6
1.55 Shots On Goal 1.9
3.6 Total Shots 5.05
1.6 Corners 1.95
24% Ball Possession 19.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with VPS's more proactive style and AC Oulu's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and AC Oulu in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Oulu having the stronger overall control. VPS have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AC Oulu.

VPS Analysis

VPS sit 6 with 33 points after 22 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 29:22 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on L. Smyth (3 goals), Oluwaseyi Ogunniyi (1 goals), with creative support from J. Turfkruier (1 assists), K. Kouassivi-Benissan (1 assists), J. Muzinga (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 34 points after 22 matches. The record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 25:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Kallio (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72.4%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / AC Oulu 4-2-3-1

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6
VPS Home
22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)