FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: P. Simani
VPS
Match Timeline
AC Oulu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
K. Jatta · Assist: I. Mendolin
AC Oulu
32'
L. Mane · Assist: M. Haukioja
VPS
36'
J. Turfkruier · Assist: Y. Daoussi
VPS
38'
A. Raisanen · Assist: J. Turfkruier
VPS
🔄
46'
S. Silander ↔ L. Ghezali
AC Oulu
🔄
46'
I. Mendolin ↔ S. Sipola
AC Oulu
🔄
46'
K. Jatta ↔ A. Kone
AC Oulu
🟥
61'
Alex Lietsa
AC Oulu
63'
M. Haukioja
VPS
🟨
64'
Simon Lindholm
VPS
🔄
66'
L. Smyth ↔ J. Muzinga
VPS
🔄
66'
J. Turfkruier ↔ V. Ronnberg
VPS
🔄
66'
R. Karjalainen ↔ N. Jokelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
75'
A. Raisanen ↔ A. Kuek
VPS
🔄
75'
Y. Daoussi ↔ O. Ogunniyi
VPS
🔄
81'
S. Lindholm ↔ O. Keturi
VPS
🔄
81'
J. Makelainen ↔ M. Ojala
AC Oulu
83'
O. Keturi · Assist: A. Kuek
VPS

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 27.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
27.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 55.2%
Draw 5.7%
AC Oulu Win 39.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS0.94
AC Oulu1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
15 GF / 14 GA
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WLDWL
22 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.57
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
9
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
6
1
Shots on Goal
1.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 15 matches
AC Oulu AC Oulu 14 matches
VPS Statistic AC Oulu
5 Wins 9
6 Draws 2
4 Losses 3
15 Goals For 22
14 Goals Against 12
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
9 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 2
1 Shots On Goal 1.75
2.73 Total Shots 5.25
1.82 Corners 2.08
19.1% Ball Possession 19.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. AC Oulu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 22 points while VPS sit 7 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AC Oulu. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and AC Oulu in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Oulu having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

VPS Analysis

From their first 10 matches, VPS have collected 14 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, while the 9:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luka Smyth (6 goals), S. Lindholm (2 goals), J. Muzinga (1 goals), with creative support from Jayden Turfkruier (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 22 points after 11 matches. The return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 16:8, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Karjalainen (7 goals), J. Korkko (4 goals), E. Kallio (1 goals), with creative support from E. Kallio (2 assists), L. Ghezali (2 assists), R. Karjalainen (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 5 times, AC Oulu won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:23 from VPS's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / AC Oulu 4-4-2
H2H summary: VPS wins 5, draws 5, AC Oulu wins 5
Stats
VPS VPS
AC Oulu AC Oulu
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
1
2 Corner Kicks 3
18 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 0
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 6
9 Shots on Goal 2
3 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 4
7 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
567 Total passes 361
492 Passes accurate 290
2.98 expected_goals 0.64
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

VPS
Formation
AC Oulu
M. Jalloh
M. Jalloh
M. Niemi
M. Niemi
E. Okereke
E. Okereke
M. Haukioja
🎯
M. Haukioja
Y. Daoussi
🎯
Y. Daoussi
A. Raisanen
A. Raisanen
L. Mane
L. Mane
P. Lima
P. Lima
J. Turfkruier
🎯
J. Turfkruier
L. Smyth
L. Smyth
S. Lindholm
S. Lindholm
N. Schulz
N. Schulz
S. Silander
S. Silander
A. Lietsa
A. Lietsa
J. Pirinen
J. Pirinen
T. Kaukua
T. Kaukua
I. Mendolin
🎯
I. Mendolin
J. Paananen
J. Paananen
K. Jatta
K. Jatta
J. Makelainen
J. Makelainen
E. Kallio
E. Kallio
R. Karjalainen
R. Karjalainen
VPS 3-5-2
Starting XI
41
M. Jalloh
G
23
M. Niemi
D
6
E. Okereke
D
19
M. Haukioja
⚽ 63' 🎯 32'
D
24
Y. Daoussi
🎯 36' ↓ 75'
M
34
A. Raisanen
⚽ 38' ↓ 75'
M
2
L. Mane
⚽ 32'
M
8
P. Lima
M
7
J. Turfkruier
⚽ 36' 🎯 38' ↓ 66'
M
15
L. Smyth
↓ 66'
F
14
S. Lindholm
↓ 81' 🟨 64'
F
Substitutes
1
A. Piispa
G
11
J. Muzinga
↑ 66'
F
26
R. Forsbacka
M
33
A. Kuek
🎯 83' ↑ 75'
18
A. Arrakoski
D
5
V. Ronnberg
↑ 66'
M
13
O. Ogunniyi
↑ 75'
M
35
O. Keturi
⚽ 83' ↑ 81'
F
AC Oulu 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
N. Schulz
G
29
S. Silander
↓ 46'
D
3
A. Lietsa
🟥 61'
D
66
J. Pirinen
D
22
T. Kaukua
D
21
I. Mendolin
🎯 21' ↓ 46'
M
6
J. Paananen
M
20
K. Jatta
⚽ 21' ↓ 46'
M
30
J. Makelainen
↓ 81'
M
27
E. Kallio
M
7
R. Karjalainen
↓ 66'
F
Substitutes
12
J. Pentti
G
14
N. Jokelainen
↑ 66'
M
26
J. Korkko
F
4
L. Ilola
D
8
M. Ojala
↑ 81'
M
11
L. Ghezali
↑ 46'
M
2
S. Sipola
↑ 46'
D
18
A. Cassama
D
32
A. Kone
↑ 46'
F
Last matches: VPS
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
Last matches: AC Oulu
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
27.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
1
D
18.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Mariehamn
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
31.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
2
1
W
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
02.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
0
W
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
18.01.26
Fri
AC Oulu
JIPPO
1
1
D
H2H: VPS vs AC Oulu
23.06.26
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
18.04.26
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
0
L
24.01.26
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
4
L
04.10.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
0
L
28.06.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
1
L
05.04.25
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
4
3
W
08.02.25
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
2
1
W
17.01.25
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
3
3
D
19.06.24
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
1
D
27.04.24
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
2
W
17.02.24
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
1
D
15.07.23
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
3
0
W
22.06.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
0
0
D
13.05.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
2
1
L
11.02.23
H2H
AC Oulu
VPS
1
1
D
Last matches: VPS
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
08.03.26
Fri
VPS
Umeå FC
2
1
W
H2H at home: VPS
23.06.26
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
24.01.26
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
4
L
05.04.25
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
4
3
W
08.02.25
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
2
1
W
19.06.24
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
1
D
17.02.24
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
1
D
15.07.23
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
3
0
W
Last matches: AC Oulu
11.07.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Turku PS
0
3
L
13.06.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Inter Turku
0
0
D
23.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
SJK
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Ilves
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Lahti
1
2
L
22.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
KuPS
2
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
AC Oulu
Gnistan
5
1
W
28.03.26
Fri
AC Oulu
FF Jaro
3
2
W
H2H away: AC Oulu
23.06.26
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
L
24.01.26
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
4
W
05.04.25
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
4
3
L
08.02.25
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
2
1
L
19.06.24
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
1
D
17.02.24
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
1
1
D
15.07.23
H2H
VPS
AC Oulu
3
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3
VPS Home
15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8 15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9 15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10 15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)