FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
23.06.2026 15:00
Lemonsoft Stadion
Referee: Peiman Simani, Finland
VPS
Match Timeline
AC Oulu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
K. Jatta · Assist: I. Mendolin
AC Oulu
32'
L. Mane · Assist: M. Haukioja
VPS
36'
J. Turfkruier · Assist: Y. Daoussi
VPS
38'
A. Raisanen · Assist: J. Turfkruier
VPS
🔄
46'
S. Silander ↔ L. Ghezali
AC Oulu
🔄
46'
I. Mendolin ↔ S. Sipola
AC Oulu
🔄
46'
K. Jatta ↔ A. Kone
AC Oulu
🟥
61'
Alex Lietsa
AC Oulu
63'
M. Haukioja
VPS
🟨
64'
Simon Lindholm
VPS
🔄
66'
L. Smyth ↔ J. Muzinga
VPS
🔄
66'
J. Turfkruier ↔ V. Ronnberg
VPS
🔄
66'
R. Karjalainen ↔ N. Jokelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
75'
A. Raisanen ↔ A. Kuek
VPS
🔄
75'
Y. Daoussi ↔ O. Ogunniyi
VPS
🔄
81'
S. Lindholm ↔ O. Keturi
VPS
🔄
81'
J. Makelainen ↔ M. Ojala
AC Oulu
83'
O. Keturi · Assist: A. Kuek
VPS

VPS vs AC Oulu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 27.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.2%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
27.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
VPS Win 55.2%
Draw 5.7%
AC Oulu Win 39.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
VPS0.94
AC Oulu1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
VPS VPS
WWDLW
15 GF / 14 GA
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WLDWL
22 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.57
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
9
BTTS Yes
7
5
Over 2.5
6
1
Shots on Goal
2.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

VPS VPS 15 matches
AC Oulu AC Oulu 14 matches
VPS Statistic AC Oulu
5 Wins 9
6 Draws 2
4 Losses 3
15 Goals For 22
14 Goals Against 12
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.57
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
9 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 2
1 Shots On Goal 2.42
2.73 Total Shots 6.5
1.82 Corners 2.25
19.1% Ball Possession 23.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. AC Oulu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 22 points while VPS sit 7 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring AC Oulu. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with VPS expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and AC Oulu in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Oulu having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

VPS Analysis

From their first 10 matches, VPS have collected 14 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, while the 9:8 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Luka Smyth (6 goals), S. Lindholm (2 goals), J. Muzinga (1 goals), with creative support from Jayden Turfkruier (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 22 points after 11 matches. The return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 16:8, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through R. Karjalainen (7 goals), J. Korkko (4 goals), E. Kallio (1 goals), with creative support from E. Kallio (2 assists), L. Ghezali (2 assists), R. Karjalainen (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, VPS won 5 times, AC Oulu won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:23 from VPS's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: VPS 3-4-1-2 / AC Oulu 4-4-2
H2H summary: VPS wins 5, draws 5, AC Oulu wins 5

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
W D D L L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W W L W D
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
D D W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W D D W
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
L L L D W
6
VPS Home
22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L W L W
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
D L W W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L D D D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W W W L L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W D D D L
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
D D L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
L W L W W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs