PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Referee: Pedro Ramalho, Portugal
Vitória SC
Match Timeline
Nacional
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
Gustavo · Assist: M. Nogueira
Vitória SC
🟨
28'
Gonçalo Nogueira
Vitória SC
🟨
38'
Miguel Nogueira
Vitória SC
49'
Samu
Vitória SC
VAR
51'
Samu
Vitória SC
🔄
56'
M. Baeza ↔ W. Kokolo
Nacional
🔄
56'
Wesley Gasolina ↔ D. I. de la Cruz
Nacional
🔄
63'
M. Nogueira ↔ O. Camara
Vitória SC
🔄
63'
L. Doucet ↔ B. Mukendi
Vitória SC
🔄
68'
Liziero ↔ S. Gavriel
Nacional
🔄
72'
G. Nogueira ↔ M. Mitrovic
Vitória SC
🔄
78'
Gustavo ↔ T. Arcanjo
Vitória SC
🔄
80'
M. Jensen ↔ A. Obando
Nacional
🔄
80'
Matheus Dias ↔ M. Djalo
Nacional
🟨
90+5'
Daniel Júnior
Nacional

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.5%
Odds 1.66
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.5%
1.66
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.93
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74%
1.20
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.60
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Vitória SC Win 60.5%
Draw 5.1%
Nacional Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitória SC1.92
Nacional1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitória SC Vitória SC
WWDLW
18 GF / 7 GA
Nacional Nacional
WLDWL
9 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
2.25
Average Goals Scored
1.29
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
4
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
3
3
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitória SC Vitória SC 8 matches
Nacional Nacional 7 matches
Vitória SC Statistic Nacional
5 Wins 1
1 Draws 4
2 Losses 2
18 Goals For 9
7 Goals Against 10
2.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
4 BTTS Yes 4
7 Over 1.5 6
4 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 2
3 Shots On Goal 3.5
18 Total Shots 15
3 Corners 5.5
51% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitória SC won 7 times, Nacional won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:19 from Vitória SC's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Vitória SC 4-2-3-1 / Nacional 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Vitória SC wins 7, draws 3, Nacional wins 5
Stats
Vitória SC Vitória SC
Nacional Nacional
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
0
Shots off Goal
13
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
2
4 Corner Kicks 3
18 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1
48% Ball Possession 52%
23 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Goal 0
13 Shots off Goal 5
5 Blocked Shots 2
13 Shots insidebox 3
10 Shots outsidebox 4
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
382 Total passes 423
310 Passes accurate 330
3.14 expected_goals 0.42
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Vitória SC
Formation
Nacional
O. Zych
O. Zych
T. Strata
T. Strata
O. Rivas Viondi
O. Rivas Viondi
Thiago Balieiro
Thiago Balieiro
J. Mendes
J. Mendes
L. Doucet
L. Doucet
G. Nogueira
G. Nogueira
M. Nogueira
🎯
M. Nogueira
Samu
Samu
Gustavo
Gustavo
A. Ndoye
A. Ndoye
R. Marin
R. Marin
Leo Santos
Leo Santos
Matheus Dias
Matheus Dias
Ze Vitor
Ze Vitor
Wesley Gasolina
Wesley Gasolina
Liziero
Liziero
F. Soares
F. Soares
M. Jensen
M. Jensen
M. Baeza
M. Baeza
Daniel Junior
Daniel Junior
Pablo Ruan
Pablo Ruan
Vitória SC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
48
O. Zych
G
23
T. Strata
D
4
O. Rivas Viondi
D
28
Thiago Balieiro
D
13
J. Mendes
D
44
L. Doucet
↓ 63'
M
8
G. Nogueira
↓ 72' 🟨 28'
M
17
M. Nogueira
🎯 4' ↓ 63' 🟨 38'
M
20
Samu
⚽ 49'
M
11
Gustavo
⚽ 4' ↓ 78'
M
24
A. Ndoye
F
Substitutes
22
J. Castillo
G
98
Lucas Furtado
82
F. Dias
D
5
A. Sidibe
D
2
Maga
D
16
B. Mukendi
↑ 63'
M
56
S. Verdi
M
6
M. Mitrovic
↑ 72'
M
18
T. Arcanjo
↑ 78'
M
29
P. Ouotro
F
7
O. Camara
↑ 63'
F
Nacional 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
R. Marin
G
34
Leo Santos
D
6
Matheus Dias
↓ 80'
D
38
Ze Vitor
D
52
Wesley Gasolina
↓ 56'
M
28
Liziero
↓ 68'
M
22
F. Soares
M
7
M. Jensen
↓ 80'
M
8
M. Baeza
↓ 56'
F
10
Daniel Junior
🟨 90+5'
F
99
Pablo Ruan
F
Substitutes
13
Joao Goncalves
G
2
D. I. de la Cruz
↑ 56'
D
21
W. Kokolo
↑ 56'
D
33
C. Goncalves
D
23
Mateus Iseppe
M
88
Deivison
M
9
A. Obando
↑ 80'
F
11
S. Gavriel
↑ 68'
M
20
M. Djalo
↑ 80'
M
Last matches: Vitória SC
14.08.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Sporting CP
2
3
L
08.08.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Arouca
0
1
L
01.08.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Chaves
2
0
W
26.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
24.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Al-Ahli Jeddah
3
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Academica
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Penafiel
5
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Felgueiras 1932
3
1
W
16.05.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Nacional
0
2
L
11.05.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Casa Pia
0
1
L
04.05.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Sporting CP
1
5
L
25.04.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Rio Ave
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Vitória SC
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
11.04.26
Pri
Vitória SC
AVS
1
1
D
03.04.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Tondela
5
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Benfica
0
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Famalicao
1
2
L
08.03.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Santa Clara
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Alverca
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Vitória SC
SC Braga
2
3
L
Last matches: Nacional
16.08.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
2
0
W
10.08.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
2
2
D
23.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Estrela
0
2
L
22.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leganes
0
0
D
19.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Tondela
1
1
D
18.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Leixoes
3
3
D
11.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Machico
1
2
L
16.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Vitória SC
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Nacional
AVS
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
2
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
0
3
L
15.02.26
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
H2H: Vitória SC vs Nacional
23.08.26
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
1
0
W
16.05.26
H2H
Nacional
Vitória SC
2
0
L
02.01.26
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
1
W
03.05.25
H2H
Nacional
Vitória SC
1
2
W
23.12.24
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
2
D
26.04.21
H2H
Nacional
Vitória SC
1
0
L
21.01.21
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
3
1
W
05.05.19
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
2
D
02.01.19
H2H
Nacional
Vitória SC
1
0
L
31.03.17
H2H
Nacional
Vitória SC
1
2
W
04.11.16
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
1
W
20.03.16
H2H
Nacional
Vitória SC
3
2
L
07.11.15
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
0
1
L
11.05.15
H2H
Nacional
Vitória SC
2
2
D
04.01.15
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
4
0
W
Last matches: Vitória SC
08.08.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Arouca
0
1
L
01.08.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Chaves
2
0
W
26.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
18.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Academica
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Penafiel
5
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Vitória SC
Felgueiras 1932
3
1
W
11.05.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Casa Pia
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Rio Ave
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Tondela
5
0
W
14.03.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Famalicao
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Alverca
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Estrela
2
1
W
30.01.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Moreirense
1
0
W
18.01.26
Pri
Vitória SC
FC Porto
0
1
L
02.01.26
Pri
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
1
W
23.12.25
Pri
Vitória SC
Sporting CP
1
4
L
08.12.25
Pri
Vitória SC
GIL Vicente
0
0
D
28.11.25
Pri
Vitória SC
AVS
4
0
W
01.11.25
Pri
Vitória SC
Benfica
0
3
L
04.10.25
Pri
Vitória SC
Santa Clara
2
1
W
H2H at home: Vitória SC
23.08.26
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
1
0
W
02.01.26
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
1
W
23.12.24
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
2
D
21.01.21
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
3
1
W
05.05.19
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
2
D
04.11.16
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
1
W
07.11.15
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
0
1
L
04.01.15
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
4
0
W
Last matches: Nacional
10.08.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
2
2
D
23.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Estrela
0
2
L
19.07.26
Fri
Nacional
Tondela
1
1
D
11.05.26
Pri
Nacional
Santa Clara
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Tondela
2
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Nacional
Benfica
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Famalicao
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pri
Nacional
Moreirense
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Arouca
0
3
L
01.02.26
Pri
Nacional
Sporting CP
1
2
L
17.01.26
Pri
Nacional
GIL Vicente
1
2
L
02.01.26
Pri
Nacional
Vitória SC
1
2
L
21.12.25
Pri
Nacional
AVS
2
2
D
07.12.25
Pri
Nacional
Alverca
0
1
L
09.11.25
Pri
Nacional
Estrela
1
1
D
26.10.25
Pri
Nacional
Estoril
1
1
D
28.09.25
Pri
Nacional
SC Braga
1
0
W
13.09.25
Pri
Nacional
FC Porto
0
1
L
30.08.25
Pri
Nacional
Casa Pia
2
0
W
17.08.25
Pri
Nacional
Rio Ave
1
1
D
H2H away: Nacional
23.08.26
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
1
0
L
02.01.26
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
1
L
23.12.24
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
2
D
21.01.21
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
3
1
L
05.05.19
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
2
D
04.11.16
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
2
1
L
07.11.15
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
0
1
W
04.01.15
H2H
Vitória SC
Nacional
4
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.42
Draw 4.02
Home 1.66
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.76
Draw 2.36
Home 2.25
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 2.0 1.45
Over 2.25 1.69
Over 2.5 1.93
Over 2.75 2.19
Over 3.0 2.64
Over 3.5 3.32
Over 4.5 6.47
Under 1.5 3.73
Under 2.0 2.87
Under 2.25 2.26
Under 2.5 1.95
Under 2.75 1.74
Under 3.0 1.52
Under 3.5 1.35
Under 4.5 1.13
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 3.70
Home 1.62
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.50
Draw 2.25
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.50
Home 2.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 2.5 1.90
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 4.5 6.50
Over 5.5 13.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.75
Under 2.5 1.90
Under 3.5 1.33
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 5.5 1.04
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.14
Draw 3.99
Home 1.71
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.40
Draw 2.20
Home 2.20
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.58
Home 1.97
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.14
Over 1.5 1.25
Over 1.75 1.32
Over 2.0 1.41
Over 2.25 1.72
Over 2.5 1.94
Over 2.75 2.06
Over 3.0 2.46
Over 3.25 2.75
Over 3.5 3.05
Over 3.75 3.72
Over 4.0 5.00
Over 4.25 5.30
Over 4.5 5.65
Over 5.0 8.50
Over 5.5 10.50
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 0.75 8.45
Under 1.0 7.90
Under 1.25 4.50
Under 1.5 3.30
Under 1.75 3.02
Under 2.0 2.62
Under 2.25 2.23
Under 2.5 1.94
Under 2.75 1.65
Under 3.0 1.46
Under 3.25 1.35
Under 3.5 1.29
Under 3.75 1.20
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08
Under 5.0 1.03
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 3.75
Home 1.68
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 2.18
Home 2.14
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.60
Draw 2.55
Home 2.02
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 2.0 1.46
Over 2.25 1.70
Over 2.5 1.92
Over 2.75 2.18
Over 3.0 2.65
Over 3.5 3.30
Over 4.5 6.00
Under 1.5 3.15
Under 2.0 2.45
Under 2.25 2.00
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.40
Under 3.5 1.27
Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 3 3 0 0 6:0 6 9
W W W
2 3 2 1 0 8:5 3 7
W W D
3 3 2 1 0 4:2 2 7
W W D
4 3 2 1 0 5:3 2 7
D W W
5 3 2 0 1 5:2 3 6
L W W
6 2 1 1 0 9:2 7 4
W D
7 3 1 1 1 4:3 1 4
L W D
8 1 1 0 0 1:0 1 3
W
9 3 1 0 2 3:4 -1 3
W L L
10 3 1 0 2 2:3 -1 3
W L L
11 2 0 2 0 4:4 0 2
D D
12 3 0 2 1 4:5 -1 2
D L D
13 1 0 1 0 2:2 0 1
D
14 3 0 1 2 2:4 -2 1
L L D
15 3 0 1 2 1:5 -4 1
L L D
16 2 0 1 1 2:6 -4 1
L D
17 3 0 1 2 3:7 -4 1
L D L
18 2 0 0 2 0:8 -8 0
L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2