PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
11.05.2026 19:15
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques
Referee: L. M. Branco Godinho
Vitória SC
Match Timeline
Casa Pia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Pedro Rosas
Casa Pia
🔄
46'
L. Ofori ↔ K. Osundina
Casa Pia
🔄
60'
M. Nogueira ↔ T. Arcanjo
Guimaraes
🔄
60'
Gustavo ↔ O. Camara
Guimaraes
🔄
60'
G. Nogueira ↔ Zeega
Guimaraes
🔄
69'
D. Livramento ↔ C. Mendes
Casa Pia
🔄
74'
K. Prieto ↔ A. Conte
Casa Pia
🟨
76'
Rodrigo Abascal
Guimaraes
🟨
78'
Beni Mukendi
Guimaraes
🔄
81'
Samu ↔ A. Ndoye
Guimaraes
⚽
86'
G. Larrazabal · Assist: J. Marques
Casa Pia
🔄
90+6'
G. Larrazabal ↔ J. Fonte
Casa Pia
🔄
90+5'
↔ A. Dafe
Casa Pia

Vitória SC vs Casa Pia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 39.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
39.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
88.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Vitória SC Win 87.5%
Draw 12.6%
Casa Pia Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitória SC1.43
Casa Pia1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitória SC Vitória SC
WWDLW
39 GF / 48 GA
Casa Pia Casa Pia
WLDWL
29 GF / 56 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
0.91
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.75
14
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
15
4
Shots on Goal
2.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitória SC Vitória SC 32 matches
Casa Pia Casa Pia 32 matches
Vitória SC Statistic Casa Pia
12 Wins 5
6 Draws 11
14 Losses 16
39 Goals For 29
48 Goals Against 56
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 0.91
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.75
14 BTTS Yes 15
25 Over 1.5 25
15 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 15
4 Shots On Goal 2.75
13.28 Total Shots 8.47
4.34 Corners 3.88
50.3% Ball Possession 41.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Guimaraes expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Casa Pia in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Casa Pia having the stronger overall control. Guimaraes arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 42 points compared to Casa Pia in 16 on 26, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Casa Pia. Casa Pia arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Vitória SC Analysis

So far, Guimaraes have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 42 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 12 wins, 6 draws, and 14 losses, while the 39:48 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Samu (7 goals), Gustavo (5 goals), Oumar Camara (5 goals), with creative support from N. Saviolo (4 assists), Gonçalo Nogueira (4 assists), Samu (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Casa Pia Analysis

With 26 points from 32 games and a place of 16, Casa Pia still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 11 draws, and 16 defeats with a 29:56 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Cassiano (6 goals), Gaizka Larrazabal (3 goals), J. Livolant (3 goals), with creative support from J. Livolant (8 assists), Gaizka Larrazabal (4 assists), A. Conte (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Vitória SC won 2 times, Casa Pia won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Vitória SC's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 0.89 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: Vitória SC 4-2-3-1 / Casa Pia 3-4-3
H2H summary: Vitória SC wins 2, draws 4, Casa Pia wins 3

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 28 4 2 66:18 48 88
W L W W W
2 34 25 7 2 89:24 65 82
W W W D D
3 34 23 11 0 74:25 49 80
W D D W W
4 34 16 11 7 64:36 28 59
D D D L W
5 34 15 11 8 42:29 13 56
W D D W D
6 34 13 11 10 47:38 9 50
L L D W L
7 34 12 7 15 37:49 -12 43
D L W L W
8 34 12 6 16 47:64 -17 42
W W D L W
9 34 12 6 16 39:51 -12 42
L L L W W
10 34 10 9 15 54:57 -3 39
L D D L L
11 34 10 9 15 35:52 -17 39
L D L W L
12 34 8 12 14 35:57 -22 36
D L D L D
13 34 9 9 16 32:41 -9 36
L W D W D
14 34 9 7 18 37:45 -8 34
W L L W W
15 34 6 12 16 38:56 -18 30
D D L L L
16 34 6 12 16 31:57 -26 30
D W L L L
17 34 6 10 18 27:55 -28 28
L W W D L
18 34 3 12 19 27:67 -40 21
D W W D D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2