BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Vitória ES
Match Timeline
Real Noroeste
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
53'
Tony
Vitória ES
89'
Felipe Affonso
Real Noroeste

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
35.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vitória ES Win 77.3%
Draw 0%
Real Noroeste Win 22.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vitória ES1.33
Real Noroeste0.73
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vitória ES Vitória ES
WWDLW
11 GF / 7 GA
Real Noroeste Real Noroeste
WLDWL
5 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
0.63
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
1.25
3
BTTS Yes
4
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vitória ES Vitória ES 8 matches
Real Noroeste Real Noroeste 8 matches
Vitória ES Statistic Real Noroeste
4 Wins 1
1 Draws 3
3 Losses 4
11 Goals For 5
7 Goals Against 10
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 1.25
3 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Vitória ES's more proactive style and Real Noroeste's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Real Noroeste. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Real Noroeste having the stronger overall control. Vitória ES arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 10 points compared to Real Noroeste in 6 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Vitória ES Analysis

Vitória ES arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 10 points after 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 9:7 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Araujo (2 goals), Tony (2 goals), Abuda (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Real Noroeste Analysis

So far, Real Noroeste have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 5 points from 7 matches. The record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 4:9 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Joao Bravo (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vitória ES won 10 times, Real Noroeste won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:16 from Vitória ES's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Vitória ES wins 10, draws 3, Real Noroeste wins 2
Last matches: Vitória ES
27.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
0
D
24.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
2
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
0
0
D
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
Last matches: Real Noroeste
14.06.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Democrata GV
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Tombense
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Porto BA
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Porto BA
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Rio Branco ES
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Tombense
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
1
3
L
06.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Democrata GV
0
1
L
H2H: Vitória ES vs Real Noroeste
30.05.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
11.04.26
H2H
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
1
3
W
30.01.26
H2H
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
0
4
W
26.07.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
0
W
19.07.25
H2H
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
0
0
D
26.04.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
1
W
01.02.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
2
L
17.08.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
0
W
03.07.24
H2H
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
1
2
W
25.05.24
H2H
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
4
4
D
15.03.24
H2H
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
2
4
W
11.03.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
31.01.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
3
L
09.07.23
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
0
W
20.05.23
H2H
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
0
2
W
Last matches: Vitória ES
20.06.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Ipatinga
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Democrata GV
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Porto BA
3
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Rio Branco ES
1
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Vitória ES
Tombense
0
1
L
H2H at home: Vitória ES
30.05.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
26.07.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
0
W
26.04.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
1
W
01.02.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
2
L
17.08.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
0
W
11.03.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
W
31.01.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
3
L
09.07.23
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
0
W
Last matches: Real Noroeste
23.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Tombense
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Porto BA
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Rio Branco ES
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Democrata GV
0
1
L
H2H away: Real Noroeste
30.05.26
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
26.07.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
0
L
26.04.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
1
L
01.02.25
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
2
W
17.08.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
1
0
L
11.03.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
3
1
L
31.01.24
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
3
W
09.07.23
H2H
Vitória ES
Real Noroeste
2
0
L