BRAZIL SERIE B
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.1%
Odds 2.20
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.20
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.1%
2.20
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.20
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 73.1%
Draw 4.2%
Sport Recife Win 22.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.19
Sport Recife1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
27 GF / 24 GA
Sport Recife Sport Recife
WLDWL
25 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.35
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
11
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
7
3.6
Shots on Goal
4.3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 20 matches
Sport Recife Sport Recife 20 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Sport Recife
10 Wins 6
4 Draws 11
6 Losses 3
27 Goals For 25
24 Goals Against 19
1.35 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
11 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 4
3.6 Shots On Goal 4.3
12.55 Total Shots 14.1
4.4 Corners 5.15
52.9% Ball Possession 54.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Vila Nova have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vila Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Sport Recife in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sport Recife having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sport Recife.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 34 points from 20 matches. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 27:24 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (5 assists), Janderson (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Sport Recife Analysis

Sport Recife are currently 10 in the standings with 29 points from 20 matches. The record of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 25:19 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through Perotti (6 goals), Chrystian Barletta (5 goals), Biel Fonseca (1 goals), with creative support from Chrystian Barletta (3 assists), Biel Fonseca (3 assists), C. de Pena (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 1 times, Sport Recife won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:7 from Vila Nova's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.11 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Sport Recife 4-3-3
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 1, draws 4, Sport Recife wins 4
Last matches: Vila Nova
27.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
CRB
0
2
L
22.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
18.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Criciuma
0
2
L
10.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Juventude
0
1
L
06.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
2
1
W
26.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
1
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
4
3
W
14.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Cuiaba
0
1
L
08.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Londrina
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
America Mineiro
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Avai
2
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Goias
0
1
L
04.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
3
D
18.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Vila Nova
CRB
2
2
D
Last matches: Sport Recife
27.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Cuiaba
1
1
D
22.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Goias
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Operario-PR
2
2
D
10.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Botafogo SP
3
3
D
04.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Fortaleza EC
1
2
L
19.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
14.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
São Bernardo
0
0
D
11.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Athletic Club
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Juventude
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
CRB
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Ponte Preta
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Novorizontino
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
America Mineiro
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Avai
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Cuiaba
0
0
D
H2H: Vila Nova vs Sport Recife
01.04.26
H2H
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
1
1
D
17.08.24
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
2
0
W
26.04.24
H2H
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
2
0
L
03.08.23
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
1
L
18.06.23
H2H
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
1
0
L
06.11.22
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
0
D
18.07.22
H2H
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
0
0
D
17.11.19
H2H
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
0
0
D
21.08.19
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
2
L
Last matches: Vila Nova
22.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
06.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
2
1
W
20.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
4
3
W
08.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Avai
2
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Vila Nova
CRB
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vila Nova
17.08.24
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
2
0
W
03.08.23
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
1
L
06.11.22
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
0
D
21.08.19
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
2
L
Last matches: Sport Recife
22.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Goias
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
28.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Fortaleza EC
1
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Sport Recife
São Bernardo
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Juventude
1
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Ponte Preta
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
America Mineiro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Sport Recife
Cuiaba
0
0
D
H2H away: Sport Recife
17.08.24
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
2
0
L
03.08.23
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
1
W
06.11.22
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
0
D
21.08.19
H2H
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
0
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.68
Draw 3.04
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.27
Draw 2.13
Home 2.79
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.37
Over 1.75 1.47
Over 2.0 1.62
Over 2.25 1.92
Over 2.5 2.20
Over 2.75 2.55
Over 3.5 3.90
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 1.75 2.69
Under 2.0 2.29
Under 2.25 1.90
Under 2.5 1.68
Under 2.75 1.51
Under 3.5 1.25
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.10
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.10
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.30
Home 2.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 2.5 2.15
Over 3.5 3.75
Over 4.5 9.00
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 3.00
Under 2.5 1.67
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.56
Draw 3.02
Home 2.17
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.46
Draw 1.90
Home 2.86
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.85
Draw 2.29
Home 2.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.04
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.19
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.57
Over 2.25 1.88
Over 2.5 2.16
Over 2.75 2.43
Over 3.0 3.06
Over 3.25 3.37
Over 3.5 3.72
Over 3.75 4.74
Over 4.0 6.80
Over 4.25 7.21
Over 4.5 7.70
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 7.50
Under 0.75 6.85
Under 1.0 6.20
Under 1.25 3.78
Under 1.5 2.88
Under 1.75 2.53
Under 2.0 2.18
Under 2.25 1.87
Under 2.5 1.66
Under 2.75 1.46
Under 3.0 1.30
Under 3.25 1.24
Under 3.5 1.20
Under 3.75 1.12
Under 4.0 1.04
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 3.25
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.75
Draw 2.12
Home 2.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.45
Home 2.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.32
Over 1.75 1.42
Over 2.0 1.55
Over 2.25 1.80
Over 2.5 2.06
Over 2.75 2.38
Over 3.0 2.95
Over 3.25 3.30
Over 3.5 3.70
Over 4.5 7.50
Under 0.5 8.50
Under 1.5 3.15
Under 1.75 2.75
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 1.94
Under 2.5 1.72
Under 2.75 1.55
Under 3.0 1.37
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 11 7 2 23:12 11 40
D W W W W
2 20 10 5 5 22:12 10 35
W L W W D
3 20 10 5 5 28:25 3 35
L W D W W
4 20 10 4 6 23:19 4 34
W L W L W
5 20 10 4 6 27:24 3 34
L W L L W
6 20 9 6 5 32:19 13 33
W L L L W
7 20 8 7 5 23:20 3 31
W W D W L
8 20 8 5 7 31:32 -1 29
W W W D L
9 20 8 5 7 21:26 -5 29
L D W D W
10 20 6 11 3 25:19 6 29
D D D D L
11 20 6 10 4 19:18 1 28
D W D D L
12 20 7 6 7 28:23 5 27
L L D D L
13 20 7 4 9 24:24 0 25
D W L L D
14 20 5 10 5 15:15 0 25
D L L D W
15 20 6 6 8 24:21 3 24
L W D D W
16 20 5 7 8 20:25 -5 22
W L D D L
17 20 5 5 10 27:31 -4 20
L L D D W
18 20 5 5 10 21:27 -6 20
L W D W L
19 20 2 5 13 14:31 -17 11
W L D D L
20 20 2 3 15 15:39 -24 9
D L L L L
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