BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: Y. Ferreira
Vila Nova
Match Timeline
São Bernardo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
23'
Marquinhos Gabriel · Assist: Higor
Vila Nova
🟨
48'
Foguinho
São Bernardo
52'
Hyoran
São Bernardo
🔄
60'
Bruno Xavier ↔ Enzo Bizzotto
Vila Nova
🔄
67'
Andre Luis ↔ Dellatorre
Vila Nova
🔄
67'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Dodo
Vila Nova
🔄
68'
Lucas Rian ↔ D. Davi
São Bernardo
🟨
70'
Felipe Garcia
São Bernardo
🔄
76'
Hyoran ↔ Marcao Silva
São Bernardo
🔄
76'
Echapora ↔ Daniel Amorim
São Bernardo
🔄
82'
Anderson Jesus ↔ Willian Formiga
Vila Nova
🔄
82'
Hayner ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🔄
85'
Felipe Garcia ↔ Fabricio Daniel
São Bernardo
🔄
85'
Foguinho ↔ Luizao
São Bernardo
🟨
89'
Daniel Davi Simão Roque
São Bernardo
90'
Janderson
Vila Nova

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 87%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
87%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
70.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 46%
Draw 13%
São Bernardo Win 41%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.24
São Bernardo1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
23 GF / 17 GA
São Bernardo São Bernardo
WLDWL
20 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
0.8
9
BTTS Yes
7
7
Over 2.5
6
3.8
Shots on Goal
3.93

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 15 matches
São Bernardo São Bernardo 15 matches
Vila Nova Statistic São Bernardo
8 Wins 7
4 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
23 Goals For 20
17 Goals Against 12
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 0.8
9 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 9
7 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 4
3.8 Shots On Goal 3.93
12.93 Total Shots 10.6
4.6 Corners 3.2
52.1% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors São Bernardo. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Vila Nova Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 28 points from 15 games, Vila Nova bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 23:17, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Janderson (4 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

São Bernardo Analysis

São Bernardo arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 25 points after 15 matches. The record of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 20:12 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Dudu Miraíma (2 goals), Pedro Vitor (2 goals), Rodrigo Ferreira (2 goals), with creative support from Dudu Miraíma (2 assists), Pedro Vitor (2 assists), Echaporã (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 1 times, São Bernardo won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Vila Nova's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / São Bernardo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 1, draws 0, São Bernardo wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 13 6 5 26:13 13 45
W W D W W
2 25 13 5 7 37:25 12 44
W D W W L
3 25 12 8 5 26:19 7 44
L L D W L
4 25 12 7 6 41:22 19 43
W W W D L
5 24 11 7 6 27:21 6 40
W D D D W
6 25 11 6 8 37:35 2 39
W L W D W
7 25 10 9 6 28:23 5 39
W W D L D
8 25 9 11 5 33:24 9 38
L W L W W
9 24 10 6 8 30:31 -1 36
D L L L L
10 25 10 6 9 25:30 -5 36
W D L L W
11 25 8 12 5 23:19 4 36
W D W W D
12 25 9 7 9 30:28 2 34
W D W D D
13 25 8 10 7 26:27 -1 34
L L L W W
14 25 8 8 9 34:29 5 32
L D D L W
15 25 8 7 10 29:28 1 31
L L D W W
16 25 8 5 12 27:31 -4 29
L W W W L
17 25 7 7 11 25:32 -7 28
L W L L W
18 24 5 6 13 29:36 -7 21
L D L L L
19 25 3 5 17 18:42 -24 14
W L L L L
20 25 2 4 19 16:52 -36 10
L L L D L
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