Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
88%
|
1.38 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
67.1%
|
2.25 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
58.6%
|
1.97 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
79.5%
|
1.15 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
2.05 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
9.00 |
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Vila Nova
22 matches
Ponte Preta
22 matches
| Vila Nova | Statistic | Ponte Preta |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Wins | 2 |
| 4 | Draws | 4 |
| 7 | Losses | 16 |
| 29 | Goals For | 16 |
| 25 | Goals Against | 42 |
| 1.32 | Avg Goals Scored | 0.73 |
| 1.14 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.91 |
| 11 | BTTS Yes | 12 |
| 15 | Over 1.5 | 18 |
| 9 | Over 2.5 | 11 |
| 3 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 5 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 6 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 3.45 | Shots On Goal | 3.5 |
| 12.41 | Total Shots | 10.82 |
| 4.77 | Corners | 4.82 |
| 52.5% | Ball Possession | 42.7% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vila Nova's more proactive style and Ponte Preta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ponte Preta. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vila Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ponte Preta in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ponte Preta having the stronger overall control. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 34 points compared to Ponte Preta in 20 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency.
Vila Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 34 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats with a 27:25 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (5 assists), Janderson (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.
Ponte Preta approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 9 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 16 defeats with a 15:41 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Elvis (2 goals), Brandão (2 goals), William Pottker (2 goals), with creative support from Elvis (3 assists), Diego Tavares (3 assists), Brandão (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 4 times, Ponte Preta won 2 times, while 9 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:9 from Vila Nova's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.
Vila Nova
15
2
6
1
4
1
Lineups
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
CRB
Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
Criciuma
Vila Nova
Juventude
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
Cuiaba
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
Vila Nova
Londrina
Vila Nova
America Mineiro
Vila Nova
Avai
Vila Nova
Goias
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
Vila Nova
Ceara
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
Ponte Preta
Avai
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
Ceara
Ponte Preta
Athletic Club
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR
Ponte Preta
Goias
Ponte Preta
Criciuma
Ponte Preta
Fortaleza EC
Ponte Preta
Atletico Goianiense
Ponte Preta
Novorizontino
Ponte Preta
Juventude
Ponte Preta
Cuiaba
Ponte Preta
Botafogo SP
Ponte Preta
CRB
Ponte Preta
Londrina
Ponte Preta
Sport Recife
Ponte Preta
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
America Mineiro
Ponte Preta
Avai
Ponte Preta
Vila Nova
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
Vila Nova
Avai
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
Vila Nova
CRB
Ponte Preta
Ceara
Ponte Preta
Operario-PR
Ponte Preta
Fortaleza EC
Ponte Preta
Atletico Goianiense
Ponte Preta
Juventude
Ponte Preta
CRB
Ponte Preta
São Bernardo
Ponte Preta
Avai
Ponte Preta
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
Athletic Club
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 26:13 | 13 | 45 |
W
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 25:17 | 8 | 44 |
L
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 3 |
Vila Nova
Home
|
24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35:25 | 10 | 41 |
D
W
W
L
L
|
| 4 | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 39:21 | 18 | 40 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 5 | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 27:21 | 6 | 40 |
W
D
D
D
W
|
|
| 6 | 24 | 9 | 11 | 4 | 32:22 | 10 | 38 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 7 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 35:34 | 1 | 36 |
L
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 30:31 | -1 | 36 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 9 | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 27:23 | 4 | 36 |
W
D
L
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 25:25 | 0 | 34 |
L
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 23:29 | -6 | 33 |
D
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 12 | 24 | 7 | 12 | 5 | 21:18 | 3 | 33 |
D
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 13 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 33:27 | 6 | 32 |
D
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 14 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28:26 | 2 | 31 |
L
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 28:27 | 1 | 31 |
D
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 16 | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27:30 | -3 | 29 |
W
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 17 | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 25:30 | -5 | 28 |
W
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 18 | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 29:36 | -7 | 21 |
L
D
L
L
L
|
|
| 19 | 24 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 16:42 | -26 | 11 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 20 |
Ponte Preta
Away
|
24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 16:50 | -34 | 10 |
L
L
D
L
D
|