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BRAZIL › SERIE B
18.10.2026 21:00
Estadio Onesio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima

Vila Nova vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 92.2%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 72.8%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
92.2%
1.36 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
72.8%
1.69 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
8.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 49.4%
Draw 7.8%
Novorizontino Win 42.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.17
Novorizontino1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
46 GF / 31 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
59 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.79
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
12
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
19
4.24
Shots on Goal
5.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 33 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 33 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Novorizontino
18 Wins 17
7 Draws 9
8 Losses 7
46 Goals For 59
31 Goals Against 28
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
12 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 24
11 Over 2.5 19
5 Over 3.5 9
14 Clean Sheets 12
9 Failed To Score 8
4.24 Shots On Goal 5.48
13.48 Total Shots 15.55
4.94 Corners 6.15
50.7% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Novorizontino. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 58 points after 32 outings. The return of 17 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with goals at 44:31, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through André Luís (6 goals), Janderson (3 goals), João Vieira (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (7 assists), Janderson (6 assists), João Vieira (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. At home, their record of 12 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 57 points after 32 matches. The record of 16 wins, 9 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 54:27 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Robson (10 goals), Romulo (9 goals), Matheus Bianqui (5 goals), with creative support from Romulo (7 assists), Robson (4 assists), Juninho (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 7 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 2 times, Novorizontino won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:12 from Vila Nova's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.22 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.2%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 2, draws 3, Novorizontino wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 18 7 8 46:31 15 61
W D W W W
2 33 17 9 7 59:28 31 60
W W W D L
3 33 17 9 7 39:21 18 60
D W W W L
4 33 15 12 6 39:29 10 57
D W D D W
5 33 16 8 9 34:28 6 56
W L W W L
6 33 14 11 8 41:31 10 53
D L W W L
7 33 15 7 11 51:47 4 52
D W L W L
8 33 13 12 8 45:35 10 51
D W W L W
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 33 13 9 11 44:45 -1 48
L L L D W
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 33 12 10 11 46:36 10 46
D L W D W
13 33 10 13 10 40:39 1 43
D L L D D
14 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
15 33 11 9 13 35:40 -5 42
L W W D W
16 33 11 8 14 37:38 -1 41
W W L W D
17 33 10 6 17 33:43 -10 36
W W L L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 33 4 5 24 21:54 -33 17
L L L L L
20 33 3 4 26 18:73 -55 13
L L L L W
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