BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: A. Daronco
Vila Nova
Match Timeline
Nautico Recife
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
Janderson · Assist: Dodo
Vila Nova
8'
Andre Luis · Assist: Ryan
Vila Nova
🟨
16'
Mateus Silva
Nautico Recife
18'
Janderson · Assist: Andre Luis
Vila Nova
🔄
29'
Leonai Souza ↔ Luiz Claudio
Nautico Recife
🔄
29'
Mateus Silva ↔ Matheus Ribeiro
Nautico Recife
🟨
34'
Tiago Pagnussat
Vila Nova
36'
Dodo
Nautico Recife
42'
Ryan
Vila Nova
🟨
44'
Luiz Felipe
Nautico Recife
🔄
46'
Reginaldo ↔ Arnaldo
Nautico Recife
🔄
62'
↔ Leo Jance
Nautico Recife
65'
Vinicius
Nautico Recife
🔄
66'
Dodo ↔ Dudu
Vila Nova
🔄
76'
Ryan ↔ Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
76'
Andre Luis ↔ Dellatorre
Vila Nova
🔄
78'
Victor Andrade ↔ Felipe Cardoso
Nautico Recife
🔄
85'
Joao Vieira ↔ Enzo Bizzotto
Vila Nova
🔄
85'
Janderson ↔ Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
🟨
90+6'
Emerson Urso
Vila Nova
90'
Luiz Claudio · Assist: Dodo
Nautico Recife

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.2%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.2%
-
BTTS Yes
53.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 61.2%
Draw 7%
Nautico Recife Win 31.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.26
Nautico Recife1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
18 GF / 12 GA
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WLDWL
18 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
7
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
5
3.69
Shots on Goal
4.31

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 13 matches
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 13 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Nautico Recife
7 Wins 6
4 Draws 2
2 Losses 5
18 Goals For 18
12 Goals Against 14
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
7 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 5
2 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
3.69 Shots On Goal 4.31
13.23 Total Shots 15.54
4.85 Corners 5.77
53.8% Ball Possession 58.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nautico Recife. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Vila Nova come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Vila Nova Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 25 points from 12 games, Vila Nova bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 18:11, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Rafael Silva (3 goals), Ryan (3 goals), André Luís (2 goals), with creative support from Janderson (4 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Ryan (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Nautico Recife Analysis

Nautico Recife sit 7 with 19 points after 12 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, while the 16:12 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Vinícius (5 goals), Dodo (2 goals), Junior Todinho (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), Yuri (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 5 times, Nautico Recife won 7 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:18 from Vila Nova's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 5, draws 0, Nautico Recife wins 7
Stats
Vila Nova Vila Nova
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
11
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 10
14 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 2
33% Ball Possession 67%
13 Total Shots 20
6 Shots on Goal 7
6 Shots off Goal 11
1 Blocked Shots 2
7 Shots insidebox 16
6 Shots outsidebox 4
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
264 Total passes 524
195 Passes accurate 441
1.54 expected_goals 2.22
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Vila Nova
Formation
Nautico Recife
Helton Leite
Helton Leite
Nathan Camargo
Nathan Camargo
Tiago Pagnussat
Tiago Pagnussat
Caio Marcelo
Caio Marcelo
Higor
Higor
Willian Maranhao
Willian Maranhao
Joao Vieira
Joao Vieira
Ryan
🎯
Ryan
Dodo
🎯
Dodo
Janderson
⚽ 2
Janderson
Andre Luis
🎯
Andre Luis
Muriel Becker
Muriel Becker
Reginaldo
Reginaldo
Mateus Silva
Mateus Silva
Betao
Betao
Igor Fernandes
Igor Fernandes
Wenderson
Wenderson
Leonai Souza
Leonai Souza
Luiz Felipe
Luiz Felipe
Dodo
🎯
Dodo
Victor Andrade
Victor Andrade
Vinicius
Vinicius
Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Helton Leite
G
20
Nathan Camargo
D
3
Tiago Pagnussat
🟨 34'
D
38
Caio Marcelo
D
6
Higor
D
8
Willian Maranhao
M
5
Joao Vieira
↓ 85'
M
11
Ryan
⚽ 42' 🎯 8' ↓ 76'
31
Dodo
🎯 4' ↓ 66'
M
99
Janderson
⚽ 4' ⚽ 18' ↓ 85'
M
7
Andre Luis
⚽ 8' 🎯 18' ↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
29
Dalberson
G
33
Bruno Xavier
M
22
Hayner
↑ 76'
D
15
Dudu
↑ 66'
M
18
Enzo Bizzotto
↑ 85'
M
49
Dellatorre
↑ 76'
F
70
Emerson Urso
↑ 85' 🟨 90+6'
F
17
Kerlon
M
9
Gustavo Puskas
F
4
Samuel Lucas
D
16
A. Ramiro
D
Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Muriel Becker
G
93
Reginaldo
↓ 46'
D
25
Mateus Silva
↓ 29' 🟨 16'
D
3
Betao
D
23
Igor Fernandes
D
8
Wenderson
M
19
Leonai Souza
↓ 29'
M
27
Luiz Felipe
🟨 44'
M
10
Dodo
⚽ 36' 🎯 90'
M
11
Victor Andrade
↓ 78'
M
7
Vinicius
⚽ 65'
F
Substitutes
55
G. Guruceaga
G
5
Auremir
M
34
Wanderson
D
46
Gustavo Henrique
30
Felipe Cardoso
↑ 78'
M
41
Samuel Felix
M
16
Luiz Claudio
⚽ 90' ↑ 29'
F
77
Juninho
M
2
Arnaldo
↑ 46'
D
14
Matheus Ribeiro
↑ 29'
D
98
Felipe Saraiva
F
66
Leo Jance
↑ 62'
D
Last matches: Vila Nova
10.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Juventude
0
1
L
06.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
2
1
W
26.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Novorizontino
1
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Cuiaba
0
1
L
08.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Londrina
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
America Mineiro
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Avai
2
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Goias
0
1
L
04.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ceara
3
3
D
18.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
2
1
W
11.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
01.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Sport Recife
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Vila Nova
CRB
2
2
D
Last matches: Nautico Recife
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
01.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
H2H: Vila Nova vs Nautico Recife
20.06.26
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
4
3
W
09.03.23
H2H
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
2
1
L
20.08.22
H2H
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
1
2
W
06.05.22
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
11.09.21
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
15.06.21
H2H
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
2
0
L
18.11.17
H2H
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
1
2
W
01.08.17
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
27.08.16
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
2
L
18.05.16
H2H
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
2
L
09.09.14
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
26.04.14
H2H
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
2
0
L
Last matches: Vila Nova
06.07.26
Ser
Vila Nova
São Bernardo
2
1
W
08.06.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Botafogo SP
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Avai
2
0
W
04.05.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Athletic Club
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Operario-PR
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Vila Nova
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
21.03.26
Ser
Vila Nova
CRB
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vila Nova
20.06.26
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
4
3
W
06.05.22
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
2
0
W
11.09.21
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
01.08.17
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
27.08.16
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
2
L
09.09.14
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
1
L
Last matches: Nautico Recife
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
01.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
2
1
W
H2H away: Nautico Recife
20.06.26
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
4
3
L
06.05.22
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
2
0
L
11.09.21
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
1
0
L
01.08.17
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
1
W
27.08.16
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
2
W
09.09.14
H2H
Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
0
1
W

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 9 6 2 20:12 8 33
W W W W D
2 17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W L W L
3 17 9 4 4 22:18 4 31
W W W W L
4 17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L W W W D
5 17 8 5 4 17:8 9 29
W D W W W
6 17 8 4 5 20:17 3 28
L W W D L
7 17 7 5 5 23:16 7 26
D L L L D
8 17 6 8 3 21:15 6 26
D L L D D
9 17 7 4 6 18:23 -5 25
D W W L D
10 17 6 6 5 19:19 0 24
W L W D D
11 17 5 9 3 14:11 3 24
D W D L W
12 16 5 7 4 16:16 0 22
L W L D D
13 17 6 3 8 21:21 0 21
L D L L D
14 17 5 5 7 20:18 2 20
D W L W W
15 17 5 5 7 26:31 -5 20
D L W D D
16 16 5 3 8 24:24 0 18
W D W W L
17 16 4 5 7 15:20 -5 17
L L L D W
18 17 4 4 9 18:24 -6 16
W L L W L
19 17 2 2 13 11:33 -22 8
L L L L L
20 16 1 3 12 10:27 -17 6
L L L W L
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