BRAZIL SERIE B
04.05.2026 22:00
Estádio Onésio Brasileiro Alvarenga
Referee: M. de Lima
Vila Nova
Match Timeline
Athletic Club
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Douglas Pele
Athletic Club
🟨
45+1'
Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
46'
Samuel Otusanya ↔ Gabriel Moyses
Athletic Club
VAR
51'
Ian Luccas
Athletic Club
🟥
53'
Ian Luccas
Athletic Club
🔄
54'
Max ↔ Felipe Vieira
Athletic Club
🔄
58'
Rafa Silva ↔ Enzo Bizzotto
Vila Nova
🔄
58'
Hayner ↔ Dellatorre
Vila Nova
69'
Dellatorre · Assist: Marquinhos Gabriel
Vila Nova
🔄
71'
Jota ↔ Pedro Oliveira
Athletic Club
🔄
71'
Douglas Pele ↔ Diogo Batista
Athletic Club
🔄
78'
Zeca ↔ Bruninho
Athletic Club
🟨
79'
Felipe Vieira
Athletic Club
🟨
80'
Janderson
Vila Nova
🔄
82'
Tiago Pagnussat ↔ Pedro Romano
Vila Nova
🔄
82'
Dudu ↔ Elias
Vila Nova
87'
Bruninho · Assist: Belezi
Athletic Club
🟨
88'
Bruninho
Athletic Club

Vila Nova vs Athletic Club Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 12.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 45.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
12.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
45.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 69.4%
Draw 6.4%
Athletic Club Win 24.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.63
Athletic Club1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
11 GF / 8 GA
Athletic Club Athletic Club
WLDWL
8 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.83
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
5
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
3
3.67
Shots on Goal
4.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 6 matches
Athletic Club Athletic Club 6 matches
Vila Nova Statistic Athletic Club
3 Wins 2
3 Draws 2
0 Losses 2
11 Goals For 8
8 Goals Against 8
1.83 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
5 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 5
4 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 1
1 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 1
3.67 Shots On Goal 4.17
11.33 Total Shots 9.83
3.83 Corners 3.83
51.2% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vila Nova's more proactive style and Athletic Club's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Vila Nova expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Athletic Club in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Athletic Club having the stronger overall control. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 12 points compared to Athletic Club in 13 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Athletic Club.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 12 points after 6 matches. They have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a 11:8 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Rafael Silva (3 goals), Ryan (2 goals), Dellatorre (1 goals), with creative support from Ryan (2 assists), Janderson (2 assists), João Vieira (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Athletic Club Analysis

Athletic Club sit 13 with 8 points after 6 league matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 8:8 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ronaldo Tavares (5 goals), Belezi (1 goals), Ian Luccas (1 goals), with creative support from Jota (1 assists), Ruan Assis (1 assists), Zeca (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 1 times, Athletic Club won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:2 from Vila Nova's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / Athletic Club 4-3-3
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 1, draws 2, Athletic Club wins 0

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 29 13 8 8 41:36 5 47
W D W W D
6 29 13 8 8 28:27 1 47
L L L W L
7 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
8 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 10 13 6 30:22 8 43
W D W L W
11 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
12 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
13 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
14 29 10 8 11 35:36 -1 38
L D L W W
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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