BRAZIL SERIE B
18.09.2026 22:30

Vila Nova vs America Mineiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.44
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.3%
Odds 2.10
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.44
BTTS Yes
62.3%
2.10
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.93
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.10
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Vila Nova Win 88%
Draw 6%
America Mineiro Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vila Nova1.54
America Mineiro0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WWDLW
40 GF / 31 GA
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WLDWL
21 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.43
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
16
4.11
Shots on Goal
4.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vila Nova Vila Nova 28 matches
America Mineiro America Mineiro 28 matches
Vila Nova Statistic America Mineiro
14 Wins 4
6 Draws 5
8 Losses 19
40 Goals For 21
31 Goals Against 48
1.43 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
12 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 4
9 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 11
4.11 Shots On Goal 4.61
13.18 Total Shots 13.54
4.79 Corners 5.54
51.9% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Vila Nova's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. America Mineiro arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring America Mineiro. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Vila Nova arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 47 points compared to America Mineiro in 19 on 17, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Vila Nova Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 47 points from 27 games, Vila Nova bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 14 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, with a 39:30 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on André Luís (4 goals), João Vieira (3 goals), Ryan Lima (3 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos Gabriel (6 assists), Janderson (5 assists), João Vieira (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

America Mineiro Analysis

With 17 points from 27 games and a place of 19, America Mineiro still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 21:46, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Gonzalo Mastriani (4 goals), Willian (3 goals), M. Segovia (2 goals), with creative support from Willian (2 assists), M. Segovia (2 assists), Paulo Victor (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 11 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Vila Nova won 3 times, America Mineiro won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:15 from Vila Nova's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.09 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Vila Nova 4-2-3-1 / America Mineiro 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Vila Nova wins 3, draws 2, America Mineiro wins 6

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 14 8 6 48:25 23 50
D W W W W
2 28 14 8 6 30:17 13 50
L W D D W
3 28 14 6 8 40:31 9 48
D W L W D
4 28 13 9 6 31:23 8 48
D W W D W
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 28 12 10 6 36:26 10 46
W W D W W
7 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W W L
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 28 10 11 7 37:28 9 41
L W L L W
10 28 10 10 8 33:30 3 40
W L W L L
11 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
12 28 11 6 11 28:34 -6 39
W L L W D
13 28 10 8 10 39:31 8 38
W L W L D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 28 8 8 12 29:36 -7 32
D L W L W
16 28 8 7 13 31:35 -4 31
L L L L L
17 28 8 6 14 29:36 -7 30
D L L L W
18 28 7 7 14 38:39 -1 28
W W L D L
19 28 4 5 19 21:48 -27 17
L W L W L
20 28 2 4 22 16:62 -46 10
L L L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation