NORWAY ELITESERIEN
30.08.2026 15:00
Lyse Arena
Referee: M. Stofringshaug
Viking
Match Timeline
Aalesund
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
U. Charles · Assist: E. Osenbroch
Aalesund
🟨
33'
Mathias Christensen
Aalesund
🟨
40'
Ólafur Guðmundsson
Aalesund
🔄
45+2'
H. Hammer ↔ D. Johannsson
Aalesund
🔄
62'
J. Bell ↔ S. Kvia-Egeskog
Viking
🔄
62'
A. Cosic ↔ R. Postema
Viking
🔄
71'
H. J. Haugen ↔ N. Fuglestad
Viking
🟨
72'
Marcus Haagensen Reed
Aalesund
73'
S. Kvia-Egeskog · Assist: P. Christiansen
Viking
🔄
81'
E. Osenbroch ↔ E. Myrlid
Aalesund
🔄
83'
V. Auklend ↔ V. Vevatne
Viking
🔄
83'
T. Moi ↔ H. Heggheim
Viking
🟨
85'
Davíð Snær Jóhannsson
Aalesund
🟨
90+1'
Kristoffer Askildsen
Viking
90'
S. Kvia-Egeskog · Assist: Z. Tripic
Viking

Viking vs Aalesund Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71%
Odds 1.29
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.26
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71%
1.29
BTTS Yes
88%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.26
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.78
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.80
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50
Probability Distribution
Viking Win 71%
Draw 3%
Aalesund Win 26%
Expected Goals (xG)
Viking2.3
Aalesund1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Viking Viking
WWDLW
67 GF / 27 GA
Aalesund Aalesund
WLDWL
44 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
2.39
Average Goals Scored
1.76
0.96
Average Goals Conceded
2.16
18
BTTS Yes
19
20
Over 2.5
16
5.63
Shots on Goal
4.82

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Viking Viking 28 matches
Aalesund Aalesund 25 matches
Viking Statistic Aalesund
20 Wins 6
5 Draws 9
3 Losses 10
67 Goals For 44
27 Goals Against 54
2.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
0.96 Avg Goals Conceded 2.16
18 BTTS Yes 19
26 Over 1.5 23
20 Over 2.5 16
10 Over 3.5 13
9 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 3
5.63 Shots On Goal 4.82
14.16 Total Shots 15.47
6.32 Corners 5.06
49.6% Ball Possession 43.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Viking's more proactive style and Aalesund's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Aalesund. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Viking expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Aalesund in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Aalesund having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Viking arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 40 points compared to Aalesund in 15 on 15, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Viking Analysis

Viking approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 40 points after 17 outings. The return of 13 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 40:17, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Peter Christiansen (8 goals), Zlatko Tripić (6 goals), Simen Kvia-Egeskog (5 goals), with creative support from Zlatko Tripić (11 assists), Peter Christiansen (3 assists), Henrik Heggheim (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Aalesund Analysis

Aalesund sit 15 with 15 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 9 draws, and 6 defeats with a 27:41 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Mathias Christensen (6 goals), Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (5 goals), Kristian Lonebu (3 goals), with creative support from Endre Hjertager Osenbroch (3 assists), Uba Charles (3 assists), Mathias Christensen (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Viking won 6 times, Aalesund won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:20 from Viking's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (97%)
Predicted formations: Viking 4-3-3 / Aalesund 5-3-2
Missing players: Viking 4, Aalesund 3
H2H summary: Viking wins 6, draws 4, Aalesund wins 5

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 20 11 3 6 43:30 13 36
W W W W L
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 20 6 7 7 23:26 -3 25
D D D L L
10 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 20 6 4 10 22:34 -12 22
W L L D W
13 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
14 20 5 4 11 20:37 -17 19
L W D L W
15 20 3 9 8 31:45 -14 18
L W L D D
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen