BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano
Velo Clube
Match Timeline
XV de Piracicaba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
5'
Velo Clube
Velo Clube
77'
Paulo Marcelo
XV de Piracicaba
86'
Matheus Firmino
Velo Clube

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Velo Clube Win 44.5%
Draw 14.3%
XV de Piracicaba Win 41.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Velo Clube0.86
XV de Piracicaba1.43
Recent Form (Last 5)
Velo Clube Velo Clube
WWDLW
6 GF / 7 GA
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba
WLDWL
12 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
3
BTTS Yes
5
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Velo Clube Velo Clube 7 matches
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba 7 matches
Velo Clube Statistic XV de Piracicaba
2 Wins 4
3 Draws 3
2 Losses 0
6 Goals For 12
7 Goals Against 6
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
3 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 5
2 Over 2.5 3
0 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by XV de Piracicaba's more proactive style and Velo Clube's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. XV de Piracicaba carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 15 points while Velo Clube sit 3 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward XV de Piracicaba having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring XV de Piracicaba. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Velo Clube Analysis

Placed 3 with 9 points from 7 outings, Velo Clube continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 6:7 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Lucas Duni (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

XV de Piracicaba Analysis

XV de Piracicaba come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 15 points after 7 matches. They have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a 12:6 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on David Ribeiro (3 goals), Antonio Gabriel (2 goals), Henry (2 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Velo Clube won 0 times, XV de Piracicaba won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:9 from Velo Clube's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.7%)
H2H summary: Velo Clube wins 0, draws 3, XV de Piracicaba wins 3
Last matches: Velo Clube
12.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
1
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
11.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
27.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
H2H: Velo Clube vs XV de Piracicaba
23.05.26
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
18.04.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
21.02.24
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
2
L
11.03.23
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
0
L
26.01.22
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
06.03.21
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
3
2
L
Last matches: Velo Clube
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
H2H at home: Velo Clube
23.05.26
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
21.02.24
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
2
L
26.01.22
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
20.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
0
1
L
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
H2H away: XV de Piracicaba
23.05.26
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
21.02.24
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
2
W
26.01.22
H2H
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)