BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano
Velo Clube
Match Timeline
Nova Iguaçu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
26'
Matheus Firmino
Velo Clube
🟥
35'
Velo Clube
Velo Clube
56'
Augusto
Nova Iguaçu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Velo Clube Win 86.3%
Draw 0%
Nova Iguaçu Win 13.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Velo Clube1.16
Nova Iguaçu0.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Velo Clube Velo Clube
WWDLW
5 GF / 3 GA
Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu
WLDWL
2 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
0.4
0.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
2
BTTS Yes
2
1
Over 2.5
1
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Velo Clube Velo Clube 5 matches
Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 5 matches
Velo Clube Statistic Nova Iguaçu
2 Wins 0
2 Draws 2
1 Losses 3
5 Goals For 2
3 Goals Against 7
1 Avg Goals Scored 0.4
0.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
2 BTTS Yes 2
3 Over 1.5 2
1 Over 2.5 1
0 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Velo Clube's more proactive style and Nova Iguaçu's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Velo Clube arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 8 points compared to Nova Iguaçu in 6 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nova Iguaçu having the stronger overall control. Nova Iguaçu arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nova Iguaçu.

Velo Clube Analysis

Placed 2 with 8 points from 5 outings, Velo Clube continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 5:3 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Lucas Duni (3 goals), Felipe Pacajus (1 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Nova Iguaçu Analysis

With 2 points from 5 games and a place of 6, Nova Iguaçu still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 2:7, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Velo Clube won 0 times, Nova Iguaçu won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Velo Clube's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Velo Clube wins 0, draws 2, Nova Iguaçu wins 0
Last matches: Velo Clube
12.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
1
2
L
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
Last matches: Nova Iguaçu
08.07.26
Fri
Nova Iguaçu
Fluminense
1
6
L
07.06.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
4
L
26.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Porto Vitória
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Água Santa
1
2
L
12.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
1
3
L
05.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
0
1
L
31.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
1
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
2
1
W
H2H: Velo Clube vs Nova Iguaçu
09.05.26
H2H
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
03.05.26
H2H
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
0
0
D
Last matches: Velo Clube
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
07.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
23.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
H2H at home: Velo Clube
09.05.26
H2H
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
Last matches: Nova Iguaçu
08.07.26
Fri
Nova Iguaçu
Fluminense
1
6
L
30.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
4
L
19.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Água Santa
1
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
1
1
D
07.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
0
1
L
24.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
1
0
W
10.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
0
1
L
03.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
1
1
D
19.04.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Porto Vitória
1
1
D
H2H away: Nova Iguaçu
09.05.26
H2H
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 4
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 16:6 10 23
W W D W W
2 10 5 4 1 13:7 6 19
W D D L D
3 10 3 3 4 9:10 -1 12
D D W L L
4 10 2 6 2 10:9 1 12
D D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D L W D
6 10 1 2 7 7:16 -9 5
L L D L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 6
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 5 0 14:7 7 20
W D D D W
2 10 5 4 1 12:6 6 19
W W W D D
3 10 4 2 4 11:13 -2 14
W D L L W
4 10 3 4 3 12:6 6 13
L W W W D
5 10 2 3 5 8:15 -7 9
L L L D L
6 10 0 4 6 10:20 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 7
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 3 1 15:7 8 21
W D W W D
2 10 5 2 3 14:11 3 17
W W L W D
3 10 3 5 2 12:9 3 14
L D W D L
4 10 3 2 5 9:15 -6 11
W D L L L
5 10 2 4 4 10:10 0 10
L D W D W
6 10 1 4 5 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Group 8
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 15:6 9 23
W W D W W
2 10 6 3 1 14:3 11 21
W W D W D
3 10 3 4 3 8:5 3 13
L W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 8:7 1 13
W L D D L
5 10 3 1 6 4:11 -7 10
L L D L W
6 10 0 2 8 3:20 -17 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)
Standings
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 5 2 3 18:14 4 17
L D L W W
1 10 6 3 1 25:8 17 21
W D D W W
1 10 5 3 2 12:8 4 18
L D D D W
1 10 5 2 3 13:9 4 17
D W W L L
1 10 6 3 1 16:6 10 21
W W W D L
1 10 4 5 1 14:9 5 17
L D D W W
1 10 6 1 3 15:9 6 19
W W W W L
1 10 6 1 3 14:8 6 19
L W W L D
2 10 4 3 3 15:13 2 15
D L L D W
2 10 5 2 3 12:9 3 17
W D D L L
2 10 4 3 3 12:9 3 15
W L W D D
2 10 4 5 1 13:6 7 17
D W D W D
2 10 5 2 3 16:8 8 17
L W W D D
2 10 4 3 3 12:7 5 15
W D L W W
2 10 5 1 4 9:8 1 16
W L D W L
2 10 4 4 2 9:5 4 16
D L D W W
3 10 3 6 1 12:8 4 15
D D W L D
3 10 4 4 2 11:7 4 16
D D D W W
3 10 3 4 3 7:7 0 13
D L D W D
3 10 4 3 3 12:8 4 15
D D W D W
3 10 3 5 2 14:9 5 14
L D D W D
3 10 3 4 3 10:10 0 13
W L D L D
3 10 4 3 3 9:4 5 15
L D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 3:4 -1 13
D L D L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:15 -1 13
W W D D D
4 10 3 4 3 12:14 -2 13
D D D W W
4 10 3 4 3 9:12 -3 13
D D L L D
4 10 3 4 3 14:12 2 13
W L L D D
4 10 3 3 4 11:21 -10 12
W D L W L
4 10 3 3 4 8:10 -2 12
L W D L L
4 10 4 3 3 11:9 2 15
W D L W W
4 10 3 4 3 6:8 -2 13
W W D D W
5 10 3 3 4 13:15 -2 12
W D D W L
5 10 2 3 5 10:17 -7 9
L D D L L
5 10 3 3 4 8:9 -1 12
W W W L D
5 10 3 1 6 9:21 -12 10
L L L D L
5 10 3 2 5 11:16 -5 11
W L D L W
5 10 3 3 4 7:10 -3 12
W L W W D
5 10 4 3 3 10:8 2 15
L W D L L
5 10 2 4 4 9:12 -3 10
D L D D L
6 10 2 2 6 10:17 -7 8
L D W L L
6 10 1 2 7 5:20 -15 5
L D D L L
6 10 2 3 5 9:12 -3 9
L W L W L
6 10 1 5 4 6:11 -5 8
D D D D W
6 10 2 1 7 6:14 -8 7
L L L L W
6 10 3 2 5 9:14 -5 11
L W D L L
6 10 1 1 8 2:18 -16 4
L L L L W
6 10 2 3 5 7:11 -4 9
D W L W L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)