BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Benito Agnelo Castellano
Velo Clube
Match Timeline
CFRJ / Maricá
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
34'
Matheus Firmino
Velo Clube
56'
Felipe Pacajus
Velo Clube
63'
Vitinho
Velo Clube
🟥
84'
CFRJ / Maricá
CFRJ / Maricá
85'
Valdenilson
CFRJ / Maricá

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 57.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.2%
-
BTTS Yes
57.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
52.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Velo Clube Win 48.4%
Draw 11.8%
CFRJ / Maricá Win 39.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Velo Clube0.96
CFRJ / Maricá0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Velo Clube Velo Clube
WWDLW
7 GF / 9 GA
CFRJ / Maricá CFRJ / Maricá
WLDWL
8 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
4
BTTS Yes
4
2
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Velo Clube Velo Clube 9 matches
CFRJ / Maricá CFRJ / Maricá 9 matches
Velo Clube Statistic CFRJ / Maricá
2 Wins 3
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 4
7 Goals For 8
9 Goals Against 11
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
4 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 5
2 Over 2.5 4
0 Over 3.5 1
3 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. CFRJ / Maricá arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward CFRJ / Maricá. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward CFRJ / Maricá having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Velo Clube Analysis

Placed 5 with 10 points from 9 outings, Velo Clube continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 7:9 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Lucas Duni (3 goals), Matheus Firmino (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

CFRJ / Maricá Analysis

CFRJ / Maricá sit 4 with 11 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Pablo Thomaz (3 goals), Lucas Sibito (2 goals), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Velo Clube won 1 times, CFRJ / Maricá won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 4:3 from Velo Clube's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.2%)
H2H summary: Velo Clube wins 1, draws 0, CFRJ / Maricá wins 1
Last matches: Velo Clube
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
27.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
0
3
L
09.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
1
2
L
Last matches: CFRJ / Maricá
30.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
XV de Piracicaba
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Noroeste
0
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Noroeste
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
2
D
12.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Velo Clube
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Aparecidense
2
2
D
02.08.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Aparecidense
1
2
L
26.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
19.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Portuguesa
0
1
L
12.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
3
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Boavista SC
1
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Pouso Alegre
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Água Santa
0
1
L
31.05.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Água Santa
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Porto Vitória
2
1
W
H2H: Velo Clube vs CFRJ / Maricá
07.06.26
H2H
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
04.04.26
H2H
CFRJ / Maricá
Velo Clube
2
1
L
Last matches: Velo Clube
04.07.26
Ser
Velo Clube
São Luiz
2
1
W
20.06.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Água Santa
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
XV de Piracicaba
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Nova Iguaçu
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Noroeste
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Velo Clube
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
0
W
H2H at home: Velo Clube
07.06.26
H2H
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
W
Last matches: CFRJ / Maricá
23.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Noroeste
0
1
L
25.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
XV de Piracicaba
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
1
0
W
09.08.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Aparecidense
2
2
D
26.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
12.07.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Nova Iguaçu
3
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Pouso Alegre
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Porto Vitória
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Água Santa
1
1
D
10.05.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Boavista SC
1
2
L
26.04.25
Ser
CFRJ / Maricá
Portuguesa
1
2
L
H2H away: CFRJ / Maricá
07.06.26
H2H
Velo Clube
CFRJ / Maricá
3
1
L