Velez Sarsfield
Match Timeline
Estudiantes L.P.
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Thiago Silvero
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
33'
Alexis Castro
Estudiantes L.P.
VAR
34'
Simón Escobar
Velez Sarsfield
40'
Ronaldo Martinez · Assist: Thiago Silvero
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
45+1'
Tiago Tomas Palacios
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
45'
Gabriel Neves ↔ Lucas Piovi
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
45'
Brian Aguirre ↔ Joaquín Correa
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
47'
Edwuin Cetre
Estudiantes L.P.
🟨
56'
Lucas Piovi
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
65'
Adolfo Gaich ↔ Guido Carrillo
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
65'
Edwuin Cetre ↔ Joaquín Tobio Burgos
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
65'
Juan Cruz Policella ↔ Manuel Lanzini
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
72'
Lucas Robertone ↔ Luca Feler
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
73'
Ronaldo Martinez ↔ Thiago Aguirre
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
73'
Matías Pellegrini
Velez Sarsfield
🔄
77'
Leandro Gonzalez Pirez ↔ Santiago Núñez
Estudiantes L.P.
🔄
90'
Matías Pellegrini ↔ Matias Arias
Velez Sarsfield
🟨
90+5'
Joaquín Correa
Estudiantes L.P.

Velez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.95
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
71.6%
1.28
BTTS Yes
71.2%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.95
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.54
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Velez Sarsfield Win 52.4%
Draw 19.2%
Estudiantes L.P. Win 28.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Velez Sarsfield1.01
Estudiantes L.P.1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield
WWDLW
34 GF / 20 GA
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P.
WLDWL
46 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.31
0.74
Average Goals Conceded
0.63
14
BTTS Yes
10
7
Over 2.5
11
4.13
Shots on Goal
5.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Velez Sarsfield Velez Sarsfield 27 matches
Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 35 matches
Velez Sarsfield Statistic Estudiantes L.P.
12 Wins 17
12 Draws 9
3 Losses 9
34 Goals For 46
20 Goals Against 22
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
0.74 Avg Goals Conceded 0.63
14 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 21
7 Over 2.5 11
5 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 16
5 Failed To Score 13
4.13 Shots On Goal 5.16
11.75 Total Shots 14.28
4.42 Corners 4.5
54.3% Ball Possession 54%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Estudiantes L.P.. Estudiantes L.P. arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Velez Sarsfield Analysis

Velez Sarsfield arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 28 points after 16 matches. The record of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 18:12 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through Florián Monzón (3 goals), M. Lanzini (2 goals), Diego Valdés (1 goals), with creative support from Diego Valdés (2 assists), M. Pellegrini (2 assists), T. Aguirre (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Estudiantes L.P. Analysis

Estudiantes L.P. approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 1 with 31 points from 16 matches. Their record of 9 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 19:7, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Adolfo Gaich (3 goals), Alexis Castro (2 goals), Guido Carrillo (1 goals), with creative support from Tiago Palacios (3 assists), Guido Carrillo (1 assists), Mikel Amondarain (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Velez Sarsfield won 7 times, Estudiantes L.P. won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:19 from Velez Sarsfield's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.8%)
Predicted formations: Velez Sarsfield 4-2-3-1 / Estudiantes L.P. 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Velez Sarsfield wins 7, draws 3, Estudiantes L.P. wins 5

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
W L D L W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
W D W D D
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
D W D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
W L D D L
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
D W L D W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D L W
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
D W L D W
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
L W W W L
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D W W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
W L W W D
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
L D W W W
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
L D L W D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D L L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
D D D W W
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
D D D L W
Knockout Phase