ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: K. Koppel
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Tammeka
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
K. Aloe
Vaprus
🟨
9'
T. Lang
Tammeka
19'
M. Limberg · Assist: S. Kapper
Vaprus
🟨
28'
P. Marin
Tammeka
28'
M. Limberg · Assist: T. Pajo
Vaprus
🟨
34'
M. Karis
Tammeka
40'
P. Marin · Assist: H. Pedmanson
Tammeka
44'
M. Limberg · Assist: T. Pajo
Vaprus
🔄
46'
K. Kiidron ↔ G. Uggeri
Tammeka
🔄
46'
M. Karis ↔ R. Kallas
Tammeka
🔄
46'
M. Vaino ↔ Kauan Pereira
Tammeka
🟨
54'
J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
63'
S. Viidas ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🔄
63'
J. Poder ↔ R. Orm
Vaprus
74'
R. Orm · Assist: T. Pajo
Vaprus
🔄
75'
H. Pedmanson ↔ M. Miil
Tammeka
🔄
76'
S. Kapper ↔ K. Kauber
Vaprus
🔄
78'
T. Lang ↔ K. Karis
Tammeka
87'
R. Orm · Assist: K. Aloe
Vaprus
🔄
88'
M. Limberg ↔ S. Kolvart
Vaprus
🔄
88'
T. Pajo ↔ K. Kutsar
Vaprus
🟨
90'
V. Vallik
Vaprus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.4%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 43.8%
Draw 21.6%
Tammeka Win 34.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.55
Tammeka1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
41 GF / 46 GA
Tammeka Tammeka
WLDWL
33 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
14
BTTS Yes
11
16
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 24 matches
Tammeka Tammeka 23 matches
Vaprus Statistic Tammeka
9 Wins 11
3 Draws 3
12 Losses 9
41 Goals For 33
46 Goals Against 30
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
14 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 15
16 Over 2.5 13
10 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Tammeka. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tammeka having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Vaprus Analysis

So far, Vaprus have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 23 points from 17 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 21:31 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tammeka Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 23 points from 16 games, Tammeka bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 7 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 18:20, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by their main attacking players, and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 8 times, Tammeka won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 34:16 from Vaprus's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.4%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 8, draws 5, Tammeka wins 2

Lineups

Vaprus
Formation
Tammeka
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
M. Seppik
M. Seppik
M. Lipp
M. Lipp
K. Aloe
🎯
K. Aloe
J. Sild
J. Sild
S. Kapper
🎯
S. Kapper
T. Pajo
🎯
T. Pajo
H. Valja
H. Valja
S. Viidas
S. Viidas
J. Poder
J. Poder
M. Limberg
⚽ 3
M. Limberg
K. Lapa
K. Lapa
P. Veelma
P. Veelma
Pedro Manoel
Pedro Manoel
M. Vaino
M. Vaino
O. Kangaslahti
O. Kangaslahti
H. Pedmanson
🎯
H. Pedmanson
M. Karis
M. Karis
T. Lang
T. Lang
K. Kiidron
K. Kiidron
T. Koskor
T. Koskor
P. Marin
P. Marin
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
43
M. Seppik
28
M. Lipp
15
K. Aloe
🎯 87' 🟨 7'
90
J. Sild
17
S. Kapper
🎯 19' ↓ 76'
8
T. Pajo
🎯 28' 🎯 44' 🎯 74' ↓ 88'
20
H. Valja
10
S. Viidas
↓ 63'
9
J. Poder
↓ 63' 🟨 54'
42
M. Limberg
⚽ 19' ⚽ 28' ⚽ 44' ↓ 88'
Substitutes
1
H. Vainu
3
K. Rand
5
S. Aer
7
V. Vallik
↑ 63' 🟨 90'
11
K. Kauber
↑ 76'
14
R. Orm
⚽ 74' ⚽ 87' ↑ 63'
19
A. Korre
47
S. Kolvart
↑ 88'
64
J. Allas
66
U. Nomm
74
K. Kutsar
↑ 88'
Tammeka 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
26
K. Lapa
23
P. Veelma
3
Pedro Manoel
4
M. Vaino
↓ 46'
44
O. Kangaslahti
24
H. Pedmanson
🎯 40' ↓ 75'
6
M. Karis
↓ 46' 🟨 34'
22
T. Lang
↓ 78' 🟨 9'
8
K. Kiidron
↓ 46'
19
T. Koskor
79
P. Marin
⚽ 40' 🟨 28'
Substitutes
77
C. Kiidjarv
9
M. Miil
↑ 75'
10
G. Uggeri
↑ 46'
14
K. Karis
↑ 78'
25
A. Viinapuu
28
R. Kallas
↑ 46'
29
R. Silov
89
Kauan Pereira
↑ 46'
Last matches: Vaprus
02.08.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
18.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
3
L
04.07.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
1
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
Last matches: Tammeka
02.08.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
1
5
L
05.07.26
Mei
Tammeka
Laagri
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
1
0
W
17.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
1
L
15.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
1
W
08.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
1
0
W
01.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Paide
1
0
W
25.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Laagri
0
1
L
22.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
18.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Paide
1
4
L
07.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
0
3
L
03.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Flora Tallinn
3
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
2
W
14.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
27.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Riga Mariners
1
1
D
15.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Viimsi
2
0
W
H2H: Vaprus vs Tammeka
11.07.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
5
1
W
13.06.26
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
18.04.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
16.09.25
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
1
4
W
15.08.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
8
1
W
17.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
1
W
29.03.25
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
5
W
16.02.25
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
6
1
L
18.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
2
D
02.08.24
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
1
W
23.05.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
1
D
09.03.24
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
1
0
L
05.11.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
0
W
26.08.23
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
27.06.23
H2H
Tammeka
Vaprus
2
3
W
Last matches: Vaprus
02.08.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vaprus
11.07.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
5
1
W
18.04.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
15.08.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
8
1
W
17.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
1
W
18.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
2
D
23.05.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
1
D
05.11.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
0
W
Last matches: Tammeka
02.08.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
1
5
L
17.06.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
01.05.26
Mei
Tammeka
Paide
1
0
W
25.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Laagri
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Vaprus
0
0
D
07.04.26
Mei
Tammeka
Trans Narva
0
3
L
21.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Nõmme United
3
2
W
14.03.26
Mei
Tammeka
Kuressaare
2
3
L
27.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
Riga Mariners
1
1
D
08.02.26
Fri
Tammeka
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
4
L
31.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Nõmme United
6
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Tammeka
Trans Narva
2
1
W
H2H away: Tammeka
11.07.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
5
1
L
18.04.26
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
15.08.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
8
1
L
17.05.25
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
1
L
18.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
2
D
23.05.24
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
1
1
D
05.11.23
H2H
Vaprus
Tammeka
2
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 15 5 1 55:17 38 50
W D W L D
2 22 12 5 5 40:17 23 41
W W D W D
3 20 13 0 7 40:21 19 39
W L W W L
4 21 10 5 6 33:28 5 35
W L W D W
5 21 8 3 10 29:39 -10 27
D L W L W
6 19 8 2 9 22:31 -9 26
L L W W W
7 22 8 1 13 40:53 -13 25
L L W W L
8 22 8 1 13 32:38 -6 25
L L W W L
9 22 6 3 13 22:36 -14 21
W L D L L
10 22 5 1 16 17:50 -33 16
L W W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga