ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
02.05.2026 14:00
Parnu Rannastaadion
Referee: G. Osomkov
Vaprus
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
R. Chanda · Assist: A. Frolov
Nõmme United
12'
M. Lepik
Vaprus
🟨
23'
T. Pajo
Vaprus
🔄
46'
A. Truuvaart ↔ B. Vain
Nõmme United
52'
H. Valja
Vaprus
🔄
64'
G. Kabal ↔ B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
71'
V. Vallik ↔ S. Viidas
Vaprus
72'
B. Chisala · Assist: B. Vain
Nõmme United
82'
Z. Beglarishvili · Assist: B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
86'
T. Pajo ↔ S. Aer
Vaprus
🔄
86'
M. Limberg ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
86'
M. Lepik ↔ K. Kauber
Vaprus
🔄
86'
S. Kapper ↔ S. Kolvart
Vaprus
🟨
88'
G. Purg
Nõmme United
🔄
90+2'
H. Jarvelaid ↔ S. Merilai
Nõmme United
🔄
90+2'
O. Dacosta ↔ A. Alteberg
Nõmme United

Vaprus vs Nõmme United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 76.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 27.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 21.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
76.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
27.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
21.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 39.4%
Draw 23.9%
Nõmme United Win 36.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus2.15
Nõmme United2.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
28 GF / 30 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
40 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
2.5
2
Average Goals Conceded
2.56
8
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 15 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 16 matches
Vaprus Statistic Nõmme United
5 Wins 7
2 Draws 2
8 Losses 7
28 Goals For 40
30 Goals Against 41
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 2.5
2 Avg Goals Conceded 2.56
8 BTTS Yes 13
13 Over 1.5 16
10 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 11
3 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nõmme United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control. Nõmme United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Vaprus Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Vaprus have collected 10 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 9:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Valja (4 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), K. Aloe (1 goals), with creative support from M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nõmme United Analysis

Nõmme United sit 6 with 10 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 defeats with a 20:22 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on O. Dacosta (4 goals), E. Ounapuu (3 goals), Z. Beglarishvili (3 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (4 assists), K. Matas (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 7 times, Nõmme United won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:16 from Vaprus's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.91 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (76.1%)
Predicted formations: Vaprus 3-4-1-2 / Nõmme United 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 7, draws 1, Nõmme United wins 3

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 18 5 1 64:20 44 59
W W W W D
2 25 13 5 7 45:22 23 44
L L W W W
3 24 14 0 10 46:30 16 42
L L W L W
4 24 12 6 6 40:31 9 42
W W D W L
5 23 12 2 9 29:32 -3 38
W W W W L
6 25 10 1 14 36:41 -5 31
W W L L L
7 24 8 4 12 33:46 -13 28
D L L D L
8 25 8 1 16 42:60 -18 25
L L L L L
9 25 7 4 14 27:41 -14 25
D L W W L
10 25 5 2 18 18:57 -39 17
L L D L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga