ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
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Parnu Rannastaadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 77%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
77%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Vaprus Win 37.9%
Draw 23.1%
Kuressaare Win 39.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Vaprus1.88
Kuressaare1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Vaprus Vaprus
WWDLW
39 GF / 43 GA
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WLDWL
28 GF / 43 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.95
Average Goals Conceded
2.05
13
BTTS Yes
13
15
Over 2.5
13
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Vaprus Vaprus 22 matches
Kuressaare Kuressaare 21 matches
Vaprus Statistic Kuressaare
8 Wins 6
3 Draws 4
11 Losses 11
39 Goals For 28
43 Goals Against 43
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.95 Avg Goals Conceded 2.05
13 BTTS Yes 13
19 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 2
6 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Kuressaare. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kuressaare having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Vaprus Analysis

From their first 16 matches, Vaprus have collected 20 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 20:31 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through H. Valja (8 goals), M. Limberg (3 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), with creative support from M. Limberg (3 assists), K. Aloe (2 assists), M. Lepik (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kuressaare Analysis

Kuressaare are currently 8 in the standings with 17 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, while the 17:26 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Kivi (6 goals), E. Demidov (2 goals), J. Vahermagi (2 goals), with creative support from R. Talu (3 assists), E. Demidov (2 assists), T. Jurisoo (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Vaprus won 8 times, Kuressaare won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 30:18 from Vaprus's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77%)
H2H summary: Vaprus wins 8, draws 2, Kuressaare wins 5
Last matches: Vaprus
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
H2H: Vaprus vs Kuressaare
21.04.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
W
31.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
21.10.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
0
1
L
20.07.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
1
L
01.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
2
1
W
18.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
0
L
01.02.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
2
W
06.10.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
1
W
28.07.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
1
D
28.05.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
2
D
17.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
2
W
11.11.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
0
L
17.09.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
1
W
03.05.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
2
L
19.03.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
2
W
Last matches: Vaprus
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
17.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
H2H at home: Vaprus
31.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
21.10.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
0
1
L
01.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
2
1
W
06.10.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
1
W
17.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
2
W
17.09.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
1
W
03.05.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
2
L
Last matches: Kuressaare
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
24.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Viimsi
2
3
L
H2H away: Kuressaare
31.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
L
21.10.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
0
1
W
01.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
2
1
L
06.10.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
1
L
17.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
2
L
17.09.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
1
L
03.05.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
2
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 4 0 45:13 32 43
D W W W W
2 16 10 0 6 33:18 15 30
L W L W W
3 17 9 3 5 29:14 15 30
D L D L W
4 17 8 4 5 26:21 5 28
W W D D L
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 16 6 2 8 20:31 -11 20
L D W L W
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 16 5 2 9 17:26 -9 17
D W D W L
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga