ICELAND ÚRVALSDEILD
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56%
Odds 2.11
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.30
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.28
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56%
2.11
BTTS Yes
86%
1.30
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.28
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
3.03
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Valur Reykjavik Win 56%
Draw 9.6%
Keflavik Win 34.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valur Reykjavik1.84
Keflavik1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valur Reykjavik Valur Reykjavik
WWDLW
19 GF / 23 GA
Keflavik Keflavik
WLDWL
13 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.3
2.09
Average Goals Conceded
2
8
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valur Reykjavik Valur Reykjavik 11 matches
Keflavik Keflavik 10 matches
Valur Reykjavik Statistic Keflavik
5 Wins 3
0 Draws 2
6 Losses 5
19 Goals For 13
23 Goals Against 20
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
2.09 Avg Goals Conceded 2
8 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 8
9 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Keflavik having the stronger overall control. Valur Reykjavik have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Keflavik. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Valur Reykjavik Analysis

With 15 points from 10 games and a place of 5, Valur Reykjavik still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 19:22, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through T. Haraldsson (5 goals), A. Palsson (3 goals), D. Gardarson (2 goals), with creative support from T. Haraldsson (5 assists), L. Heimisson (3 assists), A. Palsson (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Keflavik Analysis

Keflavik are currently 7 in the standings with 11 points from 9 matches. The record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 12:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Ljubicic (4 goals), M. Al Ghoul (2 goals), M. Brigic (2 goals), with creative support from E. Ragnarsson (3 assists), B. Baxter (3 assists), M. Al Ghoul (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Valur Reykjavik won 6 times, Keflavik won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:11 from Valur Reykjavik's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.4%)
H2H summary: Valur Reykjavik wins 6, draws 3, Keflavik wins 1
Last matches: Valur Reykjavik
16.06.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
IA Akranes
0
1
L
31.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
1
5
L
26.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
1
3
L
22.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
KA Akureyri
1
0
W
17.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Breidablik
3
2
W
08.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Fram Reykjavik
2
3
L
02.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
1
4
L
27.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Stjarnan
4
2
W
23.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
3
0
W
17.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2
1
W
12.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Thor Akureyri
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Kauno Žalgiris
1
2
L
24.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Kauno Žalgiris
1
1
D
17.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
10.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Flora Tallinn
3
0
W
Last matches: Keflavik
14.06.26
Úrv
Keflavik
FH hafnarfjordur
1
2
L
31.05.26
Úrv
Keflavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1
6
L
22.05.26
Úrv
Keflavik
Thor Akureyri
1
0
W
17.05.26
Úrv
Keflavik
Stjarnan
1
1
D
08.05.26
Úrv
Keflavik
IA Akranes
3
1
W
03.05.26
Úrv
Keflavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
1
3
L
26.04.26
Úrv
Keflavik
KA Akureyri
2
1
W
22.04.26
Úrv
Keflavik
Breidablik
0
0
D
17.04.26
Úrv
Keflavik
Fram Reykjavik
1
3
L
12.04.26
Úrv
Keflavik
KR Reykjavik
2
3
L
H2H: Valur Reykjavik vs Keflavik
09.06.24
H2H
Keflavik
Valur Reykjavik
3
3
D
13.08.23
H2H
Keflavik
Valur Reykjavik
1
1
D
21.05.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
0
0
D
11.07.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
0
3
L
24.04.22
H2H
Keflavik
Valur Reykjavik
0
1
W
15.08.21
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
2
1
W
24.05.21
H2H
Keflavik
Valur Reykjavik
1
2
W
27.05.20
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
5
1
W
29.09.18
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
4
1
W
01.07.18
H2H
Keflavik
Valur Reykjavik
0
2
W
Last matches: Valur Reykjavik
31.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Vikingur Reykjavik
1
5
L
17.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Breidablik
3
2
W
02.05.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
KR Reykjavik
1
4
L
23.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
FH hafnarfjordur
3
0
W
17.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2
1
W
12.04.26
Úrv
Valur Reykjavik
Thor Akureyri
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Kauno Žalgiris
1
2
L
10.07.25
UEF
Valur Reykjavik
Flora Tallinn
3
0
W
H2H at home: Valur Reykjavik
21.05.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
0
0
D
11.07.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
0
3
L
15.08.21
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
2
1
W
27.05.20
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
5
1
W
29.09.18
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
4
1
W
Last matches: Keflavik
31.05.26
Úrv
Keflavik
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1
6
L
08.05.26
Úrv
Keflavik
IA Akranes
3
1
W
26.04.26
Úrv
Keflavik
KA Akureyri
2
1
W
17.04.26
Úrv
Keflavik
Fram Reykjavik
1
3
L
12.04.26
Úrv
Keflavik
KR Reykjavik
2
3
L
H2H away: Keflavik
21.05.23
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
0
0
D
11.07.22
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
0
3
W
15.08.21
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
2
1
L
27.05.20
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
5
1
L
29.09.18
H2H
Valur Reykjavik
Keflavik
4
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.71
Draw 4.44
Home 2.11
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.13
Draw 2.77
Home 2.57
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.5 1.28
Over 3.25 1.56
Over 3.5 1.73
Over 3.75 1.90
Over 4.0 2.14
Over 4.25 2.37
Over 4.5 2.59
Over 5.5 4.31
Under 2.5 3.51
Under 3.25 2.36
Under 3.5 2.07
Under 3.75 1.88
Under 4.0 1.69
Under 4.25 1.56
Under 4.5 1.47
Under 5.5 1.20
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 3.80
Home 2.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.62
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.75
Draw 3.00
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.08
Over 2.5 1.30
Over 3.5 1.73
Over 4.5 2.62
Over 5.5 4.33
Over 6.5 7.50
Over 7.5 10.50
Over 8.5 17.00
Over 9.5 21.00
Under 0.5 29.00
Under 1.5 7.00
Under 2.5 3.40
Under 3.5 2.00
Under 4.5 1.44
Under 5.5 1.20
Under 6.5 1.07
Under 7.5 1.02
Under 8.5 1.00
Under 9.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.77
Draw 4.20
Home 2.11
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.11
Draw 2.64
Home 2.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.94
Draw 3.00
Home 2.34
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.5 1.03
Over 1.75 1.04
Over 2.0 1.05
Over 2.25 1.15
Over 2.5 1.24
Over 2.75 1.31
Over 3.0 1.37
Over 3.25 1.56
Over 3.5 1.76
Over 3.75 1.93
Over 4.0 2.13
Over 4.25 2.42
Over 4.5 2.59
Over 4.75 3.08
Over 5.0 3.85
Over 5.25 4.17
Over 5.5 4.50
Over 6.0 7.50
Over 6.5 7.50
Over 7.5 10.50
Over 8.5 17.00
Over 9.5 21.00
Under 0.5 19.50
Under 1.0 14.50
Under 1.5 7.70
Under 1.75 7.10
Under 2.0 6.60
Under 2.25 4.35
Under 2.5 3.34
Under 2.75 3.04
Under 3.0 2.73
Under 3.25 2.26
Under 3.5 2.01
Under 3.75 1.83
Under 4.0 1.60
Under 4.25 1.50
Under 4.5 1.39
Under 4.75 1.30
Under 5.0 1.18
Under 5.25 1.16
Under 5.5 1.13
Under 6.0 1.03
Under 6.5 1.07
Under 7.5 1.02
Under 8.5 1.00
Under 9.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.85
Draw 3.70
Home 2.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.60
Home 2.45
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.95
Draw 2.95
Home 2.33
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.08
Over 2.5 1.32
Over 3.5 1.82
Over 4.5 2.85
Over 5.5 4.60
Under 1.5 5.80
Under 2.5 2.95
Under 3.5 1.82
Under 4.5 1.34
Under 5.5 1.13

Standings

Besta deild 2026
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 9 1 0 34:6 28 28
W W W W W
2 10 8 1 1 38:23 15 25
W W L D W
3 9 6 2 1 25:16 9 20
W W D W W
4 9 4 3 2 22:15 7 15
L W L D W
5 10 5 0 5 19:22 -3 15
L L W W L
6 9 3 3 3 12:16 -4 12
W D W L W
7 9 3 2 4 12:18 -6 11
L W D W L
8 9 3 1 5 12:15 -3 10
L L W W W
9 10 3 1 6 18:22 -4 10
W L L D L
10 9 2 0 7 7:23 -16 6
L L L L L
11 9 1 2 6 14:23 -9 5
W D L L L
12 9 0 2 7 12:26 -14 2
L L L D L
Championship round
Relegation Round