NORWAY ELITESERIEN
16.05.2026 18:00
Intility Arena
Referee: M. Lien
Valerenga
Match Timeline
Sarpsborg 08 FF
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
F. Thorvaldsen · Assist: C. Lange
Valerenga
11'
D. Karlsbakk · Assist: S. Christiansen
Sarpsborg 08 FF
20'
Elias Sørensen
Valerenga
20'
E. Sorensen
Valerenga
28'
A. Nibe · Assist: C. Niyukuri
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🟨
30'
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Valerenga
🔄
46'
V. Hedenstad ↔ H. Sjatil
Valerenga
🔄
64'
L. Haren ↔ M. Grundetjern
Valerenga
🔄
64'
M. Westergaard ↔ O. T. Holm
Valerenga
🔄
80'
C. Niyukuri ↔ M. Odegaard
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
83'
E. Sorensen ↔ P. Strand
Valerenga
🔄
83'
D. Karlsbakk ↔ N. Williams
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
83'
A. Nibe ↔ B. Gueye
Sarpsborg 08 FF
🔄
88'
C. Lange ↔ F. Ambina
Valerenga
🔄
90'
A. Hiim ↔ E. Wichne
Sarpsborg 08 FF
90'
M. Grundetjern · Assist: P. Strand
Valerenga

Valerenga vs Sarpsborg 08 FF Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 76.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
76.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Valerenga Win 43.1%
Draw 33.5%
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win 23.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valerenga1.57
Sarpsborg 08 FF1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valerenga Valerenga
WWDLW
26 GF / 22 GA
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF
WLDWL
28 GF / 24 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
7
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
10
4.63
Shots on Goal
3.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valerenga Valerenga 15 matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF Sarpsborg 08 FF 18 matches
Valerenga Statistic Sarpsborg 08 FF
7 Wins 9
3 Draws 3
5 Losses 6
26 Goals For 28
22 Goals Against 24
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
7 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 15
7 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 4
4.63 Shots On Goal 3.88
14.75 Total Shots 11.38
7.5 Corners 5.88
47% Ball Possession 48.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valerenga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Sarpsborg 08 FF in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sarpsborg 08 FF having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Sarpsborg 08 FF. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Valerenga Analysis

With 8 points from 8 games and a place of 11, Valerenga still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 7:12, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through C. Lange (2 goals), Lucas Haren (2 goals), I. Nasberg (1 goals), with creative support from M. Grundetjern (1 assists), H. Bjordal (1 assists), K. Finnsson (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sarpsborg 08 FF Analysis

Sarpsborg 08 FF approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 8 points from 8 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 7:11, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through V. E. Halvorsen (2 goals), A. Sher (1 goals), C. Niyukuri (1 goals), with creative support from V. E. Halvorsen (1 assists), S. Sorli (1 assists), B. Utvik (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Valerenga won 8 times, Sarpsborg 08 FF won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:19 from Valerenga's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.85 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (76.6%)
Predicted formations: Valerenga 4-4-2 / Sarpsborg 08 FF 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Valerenga 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF 6
H2H summary: Valerenga wins 8, draws 2, Sarpsborg 08 FF wins 3

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3 20 11 3 6 43:30 13 36
W W W W L
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 20 6 7 7 23:26 -3 25
D D D L L
10 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 20 6 4 10 22:34 -12 22
W L L D W
13 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
14 20 5 4 11 20:37 -17 19
L W D L W
15 20 3 9 8 31:45 -14 18
L W L D D
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen