NORWAY ELITESERIEN
30.08.2026 15:00
Intility Arena
Referee: C. Moen
Valerenga
Match Timeline
Molde
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Ivan Näsberg
Valerenga
11'
E. Hestad · Assist: E. Breivik
Molde
19'
L. Haren · Assist: G. Rajkovic
Valerenga
21'
M. Grundetjern
Valerenga
🔄
29'
E. Hestad ↔ C. Zady
Molde
30'
S. Granaas · Assist: O. Spiten-Nysaeter
Molde
40'
J. Abdullai · Assist: A. Posiadala
Molde
45'
C. Zady
Molde
45'
C. Lange · Assist: K. Finnsson
Valerenga
🔄
55'
G. Rajkovic ↔ P. Strand
Valerenga
🔄
61'
O. Spiten-Nysaeter ↔ M. Daehli
Molde
🔄
61'
M. Linnes ↔ V. Bender
Molde
🟨
70'
Emil Breivik
Molde
🟨
75'
Aaron Kiil Olsen
Valerenga
🟨
76'
Sondre Milian Granaas
Molde
🔄
77'
I. Nasberg ↔ K. Tshiembe
Valerenga
🔄
77'
M. Westergaard ↔ G. Zahid
Valerenga
🔄
77'
L. Haren ↔ O. Saeter
Valerenga
🟨
78'
Mathias Grundetjern
Valerenga
🔄
80'
S. Granaas ↔ N. Odegard
Molde
🔄
81'
J. Abdullai ↔ T. Kone-Doherty
Molde
🔄
88'
C. Lange ↔ O. T. Holm
Valerenga

Valerenga vs Molde Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 42.7%
Odds 2.24
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.33
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 88%
Odds 1.34
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
42.7%
2.24
BTTS Yes
88%
1.33
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
88%
1.34
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.09
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Valerenga Win 40%
Draw 17.3%
Molde Win 42.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Valerenga1.76
Molde1.82
Recent Form (Last 5)
Valerenga Valerenga
WWDLW
52 GF / 48 GA
Molde Molde
WLDWL
48 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.93
Average Goals Scored
1.85
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
16
BTTS Yes
19
17
Over 2.5
17
5.65
Shots on Goal
5.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Valerenga Valerenga 27 matches
Molde Molde 26 matches
Valerenga Statistic Molde
12 Wins 11
5 Draws 6
10 Losses 9
52 Goals For 48
48 Goals Against 39
1.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.85
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
16 BTTS Yes 19
22 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 17
13 Over 3.5 11
5 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 4
5.65 Shots On Goal 5.29
16 Total Shots 14.53
6.82 Corners 5.53
49.1% Ball Possession 58.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Molde's more proactive style and Valerenga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Valerenga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Molde in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Molde having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Molde. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga are currently 11 in the standings with 21 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 8 losses, while the 28:34 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Lucas Haren (7 goals), Mathias Grundetjern (4 goals), Carl Lange (3 goals), with creative support from Henrik Bjørdal (6 assists), Mathias Grundetjern (4 assists), Kolbeinn Finnsson (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Molde Analysis

Molde arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 27 points after 17 matches. The record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 32:26 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Eirik Hestad (6 goals), Emil Breivik (5 goals), Fredrik Gulbrandsen (4 goals), with creative support from Emil Breivik (5 assists), Sondre Milian Granaas (3 assists), Eirik Hestad (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Valerenga won 2 times, Molde won 9 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:35 from Valerenga's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.85 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Valerenga 4-4-2 / Molde 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Valerenga 3, Molde 5
H2H summary: Valerenga wins 2, draws 2, Molde wins 9

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 16 2 2 52:17 35 50
W W W W W
2 20 15 2 3 51:20 31 47
W D W L W
3
Molde Away
20 11 3 6 43:30 13 36
W W W W L
4 20 10 5 5 37:27 10 35
L L D L W
5 20 10 2 8 28:26 2 32
W W L D L
6 20 9 3 8 36:29 7 30
W W L W W
7 20 8 3 9 24:31 -7 27
D L W W W
8 20 8 2 10 37:31 6 26
L L D W W
9 20 6 7 7 23:26 -3 25
D D D L L
10 20 6 5 9 27:41 -14 23
L L D L D
11 20 6 4 10 33:42 -9 22
L D L D L
12 20 6 4 10 22:34 -12 22
W L L D W
13 20 5 5 10 18:27 -9 20
L D D W L
14 20 5 4 11 20:37 -17 19
L W D L W
15 20 3 9 8 31:45 -14 18
L W L D D
16 20 4 4 12 22:41 -19 16
W L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen