JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
17.05.2026 04:00
Peace Stadium
Referee: D. Kos
V-varen Nagasaki
Match Timeline
Vissel Kobe
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
21'
H. Yamaguchi · Assist: Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
⚽
27'
Y. Muto · Assist: N. Iino
Vissel Kobe
⚽
32'
M. Thuler
Vissel Kobe
🟨
37'
Caetano
Vissel Kobe
⚽
45'
Dudu Giusti · Assist: Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
58'
N. Iino ↔ R. Hirose
Vissel Kobe
🔄
63'
Thiago ↔ R. Yamasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
64'
Y. Osako ↔ R. Komatsu
Vissel Kobe
🟨
66'
Onaga Hijiri
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
71'
Dudu Giusti ↔ Y. Egawa
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
79'
Y. Ideguchi ↔ Jean Patric
Vissel Kobe
🔄
79'
Caetano ↔ M. Mitsuta
Vissel Kobe
🔄
81'
R. Yamada ↔ Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
81'
K. Kushibiki ↔ H. Teruyama
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
81'
M. Hasegawa ↔ N. Campbell
V-varen Nagasaki
🟨
90+2'
Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki vs Vissel Kobe Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
77.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
V-varen Nagasaki Win 22.8%
Draw 0%
Vissel Kobe Win 77.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
V-varen Nagasaki1.18
Vissel Kobe1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WWDLW
20 GF / 25 GA
Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe
WLDWL
24 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
9
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
8
3.69
Shots on Goal
3.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 17 matches
Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 16 matches
V-varen Nagasaki Statistic Vissel Kobe
7 Wins 8
1 Draws 5
9 Losses 3
20 Goals For 24
25 Goals Against 19
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
9 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 4
3.69 Shots On Goal 3.81
11.06 Total Shots 13.69
3.94 Corners 5.44
47.4% Ball Possession 55%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Vissel Kobe's more proactive style and V-varen Nagasaki's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Vissel Kobe carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 28 points while V-varen Nagasaki sit 10 on 19, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with V-varen Nagasaki expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Vissel Kobe in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vissel Kobe having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Vissel Kobe. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 19 points from 16 matches. The overall return of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 10 defeats with a 18:26 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Matheus Jesus (6 goals), Thiago (6 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (2 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vissel Kobe Analysis

With 28 points from 15 games and a place of 2, Vissel Kobe still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 25:22, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through R. Komatsu (4 goals), K. Nagato (3 goals), Takahiro Ogihara (3 goals), with creative support from D. Sasaki (3 assists), R. Komatsu (2 assists), Yosuke Ideguchi (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, V-varen Nagasaki won 0 times, Vissel Kobe won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:14 from V-varen Nagasaki's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1 / Vissel Kobe 4-3-3
H2H summary: V-varen Nagasaki wins 0, draws 3, Vissel Kobe wins 5

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)