JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Peace Stadium
Referee: K. Koya
V-varen Nagasaki
Match Timeline
Nagoya Grampus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
29'
Thiago · Assist: M. Hasegawa
V-varen Nagasaki
34'
K. Nagai · Assist: S. Sugiura
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
46'
R. Yamada ↔ N. Campbell
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
46'
S. Mori ↔ H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
53'
I. Arai ↔ H. Teruyama
V-varen Nagasaki
54'
K. Nagai · Assist: K. Mikuni
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
63'
Thiago ↔ Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
64'
S. Yoneda ↔ T. Kasayanagi
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
72'
K. Nagai ↔ K. Sakakibara
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
74'
H. Yamaguchi ↔ Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
79'
R. Yamanaka ↔ Y. Sato
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
79'
S. Sugiura ↔ Y. Kimura
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
80'
Matheus Jesus
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
86'
Y. Nogami ↔ A. Kawazura
Nagoya Grampus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
80.9%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
V-varen Nagasaki Win 29%
Draw 11.7%
Nagoya Grampus Win 59.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
V-varen Nagasaki1.13
Nagoya Grampus1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WWDLW
15 GF / 19 GA
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WLDWL
21 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.62
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.23
6
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
7
3.31
Shots on Goal
4.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 14 matches
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 13 matches
V-varen Nagasaki Statistic Nagoya Grampus
6 Wins 5
1 Draws 5
7 Losses 3
15 Goals For 21
19 Goals Against 16
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.62
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.23
6 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 2
3.31 Shots On Goal 4.46
10.85 Total Shots 13.69
3.54 Corners 5.08
48.1% Ball Possession 53.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Nagoya Grampus's more proactive style and V-varen Nagasaki's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. V-varen Nagasaki have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Nagoya Grampus. Nagoya Grampus carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 22 points while V-varen Nagasaki sit 10 on 16, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 16 points from 13 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 13:20, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Matheus Jesus (5 goals), Thiago (4 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (2 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 22 points from 13 games, Nagoya Grampus bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a 23:19 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Y. Kimura (6 goals), Y. Yamagishi (6 goals), Hidemasa Koda (2 goals), with creative support from K. Nakayama (5 assists), Y. Kimura (2 assists), Marcus Vinicius (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, V-varen Nagasaki won 3 times, Nagoya Grampus won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:9 from V-varen Nagasaki's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)
Predicted formations: V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1 / Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: V-varen Nagasaki wins 3, draws 1, Nagoya Grampus wins 2
Stats
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
9 Corner Kicks 9
12 Fouls 3
0 Offsides 3
50% Ball Possession 50%
18 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Goal 6
6 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 3
8 Shots insidebox 7
10 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 7
390 Total passes 400
279 Passes accurate 309
1.98 expected_goals 0.66
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

V-varen Nagasaki
Formation
Nagoya Grampus
M. Goto
M. Goto
H. Onaga
H. Onaga
I. Arai
I. Arai
Dudu Giusti
Dudu Giusti
M. Sekiguchi
M. Sekiguchi
R. Yamada
R. Yamada
H. Yamaguchi
H. Yamaguchi
S. Yoneda
S. Yoneda
T. Matsumoto
T. Matsumoto
M. Hasegawa
🎯
M. Hasegawa
Thiago
Thiago
A. Pisano
A. Pisano
Y. Nogami
Y. Nogami
K. Mikuni
🎯
K. Mikuni
S. Tokumoto
S. Tokumoto
S. Mori
S. Mori
M. Ono
M. Ono
T. Uchida
T. Uchida
R. Yamanaka
R. Yamanaka
T. Kikuchi
T. Kikuchi
K. Nagai
⚽ 2
K. Nagai
S. Sugiura
🎯
S. Sugiura
V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
M. Goto
G
22
H. Onaga
D
29
I. Arai
↓ 53'
D
4
Dudu Giusti
D
3
M. Sekiguchi
M
24
R. Yamada
↓ 46'
M
5
H. Yamaguchi
↓ 74'
M
23
S. Yoneda
↓ 64'
M
34
T. Matsumoto
F
41
M. Hasegawa
🎯 29'
F
9
Thiago
⚽ 29' ↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
13
G. Hatano
G
18
R. Yamasaki
F
21
Diego Pituca
↑ 74'
M
10
Matheus Jesus
↑ 63' 🟨 80'
M
8
Y. Iwasaki
F
48
H. Teruyama
↑ 53'
D
17
K. Takahata
D
33
T. Kasayanagi
↑ 64'
M
11
N. Campbell
↑ 46'
M
Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
35
A. Pisano
G
2
Y. Nogami
↓ 86'
D
20
K. Mikuni
🎯 54'
D
55
S. Tokumoto
D
44
S. Mori
↓ 46'
M
41
M. Ono
M
17
T. Uchida
M
66
R. Yamanaka
↓ 79'
M
33
T. Kikuchi
F
18
K. Nagai
⚽ 34' ⚽ 54' ↓ 72'
F
30
S. Sugiura
🎯 34' ↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
36
H. Hagi
G
3
Y. Sato
↑ 79'
D
28
K. Sakakibara
↑ 72'
F
37
H. Kubo
D
6
A. Kawazura
↑ 86'
D
19
H. Koda
↑ 46'
M
22
Y. Kimura
↑ 79'
F
32
H. Suzuki
M
Last matches: V-varen Nagasaki
06.06.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
30.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
23.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
0
1
L
17.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
09.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
06.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
25.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
1
1
D
18.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
2
L
11.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
05.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
0
3
L
21.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
18.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
15.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
08.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
28.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
1
0
W
21.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
13.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
0
2
L
06.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
Omiya Ardija
2
0
W
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
30.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
23.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
4
L
17.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
6
L
10.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
H2H: V-varen Nagasaki vs Nagoya Grampus
03.05.26
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
21.02.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
W
15.09.18
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
3
4
W
12.05.18
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
0
W
21.10.17
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
25.06.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
2
0
L
Last matches: V-varen Nagasaki
30.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
17.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
06.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
25.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
0
3
L
18.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
15.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
28.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
1
0
W
06.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
3
L
H2H at home: V-varen Nagasaki
03.05.26
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
12.05.18
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
0
W
21.10.17
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
23.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
4
L
17.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
6
L
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
H2H away: Nagoya Grampus
03.05.26
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
W
12.05.18
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
0
L
21.10.17
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
1
D

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)