JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Peace Stadium
Referee: M. Ueda
V-varen Nagasaki
Match Timeline
Mito Hollyhock
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
Matheus Jesus · Assist: T. Kasayanagi
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
59'
M. Arai ↔ H. Yamamoto
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
59'
K. Tada ↔ Patryck
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
61'
H. Nabeshima ↔ Diego Pituca
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
61'
K. Takahata ↔ S. Yoneda
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
72'
T. Kasayanagi ↔ T. Matsumoto
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
74'
C. Kato ↔ Y. Nagao
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
74'
Matheus Leiria ↔ K. Ando
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
79'
Y. Torikai ↔ R. Nemoto
Mito Hollyhock
🔄
83'
Y. Egawa ↔ H. Teruyama
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
83'
M. Hasegawa ↔ K. Nakamura
V-varen Nagasaki

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
V-varen Nagasaki Win 71.6%
Draw 17.1%
Mito Hollyhock Win 11.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
V-varen Nagasaki1.52
Mito Hollyhock1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WWDLW
22 GF / 28 GA
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock
WLDWL
21 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.16
Average Goals Scored
1.11
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
2.05
10
BTTS Yes
13
10
Over 2.5
10
3.56
Shots on Goal
3.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 19 matches
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 19 matches
V-varen Nagasaki Statistic Mito Hollyhock
7 Wins 2
2 Draws 8
10 Losses 9
22 Goals For 21
28 Goals Against 39
1.16 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 2.05
10 BTTS Yes 13
14 Over 1.5 17
10 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 4
3.56 Shots On Goal 3.39
11.11 Total Shots 11.22
4 Corners 3.61
46.9% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Mito Hollyhock. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with V-varen Nagasaki expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Mito Hollyhock in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mito Hollyhock having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 21 points from 18 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 21:29, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Matheus Jesus (6 goals), Thiago (6 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (4 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mito Hollyhock Analysis

Mito Hollyhock approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 18 points from 18 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 0 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 23:39, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Watanabe (4 goals), C. Kato (3 goals), K. Ando (2 goals), with creative support from K. Tada (3 assists), T. Semba (2 assists), A. Watanabe (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, V-varen Nagasaki won 9 times, Mito Hollyhock won 5 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:19 from V-varen Nagasaki's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (88.6%)
Predicted formations: V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1 / Mito Hollyhock 4-4-2
H2H summary: V-varen Nagasaki wins 9, draws 1, Mito Hollyhock wins 5
Stats
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
6
0 Corner Kicks 7
6 Fouls 12
0 Offsides 2
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Goal 4
5 Shots off Goal 3
2 Blocked Shots 6
4 Shots insidebox 11
6 Shots outsidebox 2
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
471 Total passes 614
384 Passes accurate 525
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

V-varen Nagasaki
Formation
Mito Hollyhock
M. Goto
M. Goto
H. Onaga
H. Onaga
Dudu Giusti
Dudu Giusti
Y. Egawa
Y. Egawa
M. Sekiguchi
M. Sekiguchi
H. Nabeshima
H. Nabeshima
H. Yamaguchi
H. Yamaguchi
K. Takahata
K. Takahata
M. Hasegawa
M. Hasegawa
T. Kasayanagi
🎯
T. Kasayanagi
Matheus Jesus
Matheus Jesus
K. Nishikawa
K. Nishikawa
T. Mase
T. Mase
Danilo Cardoso
Danilo Cardoso
K. Itakura
K. Itakura
S. Omori
S. Omori
Matheus Leiria
Matheus Leiria
T. Semba
T. Semba
C. Kato
C. Kato
M. Arai
M. Arai
K. Tada
K. Tada
Y. Torikai
Y. Torikai
V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
M. Goto
G
22
H. Onaga
D
4
Dudu Giusti
D
6
Y. Egawa
↓ 83'
D
3
M. Sekiguchi
M
44
H. Nabeshima
↓ 61'
M
5
H. Yamaguchi
M
17
K. Takahata
↓ 61'
M
41
M. Hasegawa
↓ 83'
F
33
T. Kasayanagi
🎯 1' ↓ 72'
F
10
Matheus Jesus
⚽ 1'
F
Substitutes
13
G. Hatano
G
21
Diego Pituca
↑ 61'
M
48
H. Teruyama
↑ 83'
D
45
N. Hyeung-jun
D
19
T. Sawada
M
20
K. Nakamura
↑ 83'
M
23
S. Yoneda
↑ 61'
D
11
N. Campbell
M
34
T. Matsumoto
↑ 72'
M
Mito Hollyhock 4-4-2
Starting XI
34
K. Nishikawa
G
25
T. Mase
D
2
Danilo Cardoso
D
17
K. Itakura
D
7
S. Omori
D
70
Matheus Leiria
↓ 74'
M
19
T. Semba
M
8
C. Kato
↓ 74'
M
14
M. Arai
↓ 59'
M
29
K. Tada
↓ 59'
F
11
Y. Torikai
↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
21
S. Matsubara
G
6
T. Iida
D
5
S. Inoue
D
39
H. Yamamoto
↑ 59'
M
13
S. Aihara
F
9
R. Nemoto
↑ 79'
F
15
Y. Nagao
↑ 74'
M
20
Patryck
↑ 59'
F
33
K. Ando
↑ 74'
M
Last matches: V-varen Nagasaki
23.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
0
1
L
17.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
09.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
2
3
L
06.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
29.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
2
1
W
25.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
1
1
D
18.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
0
2
L
11.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
0
1
L
05.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
0
3
L
21.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
18.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
15.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
08.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
28.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
1
0
W
21.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
W
13.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
0
2
L
06.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
V-varen Nagasaki
Omiya Ardija
2
0
W
Last matches: Mito Hollyhock
24.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kawasaki Frontale
1
3
L
16.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Tokyo Verdy
0
1
L
09.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Urawa
1
4
L
06.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashima
0
3
L
02.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
24.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
FC Tokyo
2
5
L
19.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashiwa Reysol
2
0
W
11.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
1
1
D
04.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashima
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashiwa Reysol
0
3
L
18.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
0
W
14.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
07.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Urawa
0
2
L
01.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kawasaki Frontale
2
2
D
22.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
1
1
D
14.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
08.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Tokyo Verdy
1
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
Mito Hollyhock
Sagan Tosu
2
4
L
H2H: V-varen Nagasaki vs Mito Hollyhock
30.05.26
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
23.11.25
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
2
1
W
31.05.25
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
3
0
L
03.08.24
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
2
L
02.06.24
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
3
W
12.08.23
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
3
3
D
03.05.23
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
4
0
W
14.09.22
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
0
1
W
27.04.22
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
30.10.21
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
2
1
W
02.05.21
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
1
0
L
01.11.20
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
4
1
W
23.08.20
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
3
W
13.07.19
H2H
Mito Hollyhock
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
L
09.03.19
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
0
1
L
Last matches: V-varen Nagasaki
17.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Vissel Kobe
2
2
D
06.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Fagiano Okayama
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Nagoya Grampus
1
2
L
25.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Gamba Osaka
1
1
D
05.04.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Shimizu S-pulse
0
3
L
18.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Kyoto Sanga
1
2
L
15.03.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Avispa Fukuoka
1
0
W
28.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Cerezo Osaka
1
0
W
06.02.26
J1
V-varen Nagasaki
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1
3
L
H2H at home: V-varen Nagasaki
30.05.26
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
23.11.25
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
2
1
W
03.08.24
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
2
L
03.05.23
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
4
0
W
27.04.22
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
W
30.10.21
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
2
1
W
01.11.20
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
4
1
W
09.03.19
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
0
1
L
Last matches: Mito Hollyhock
06.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashima
0
3
L
02.05.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
1
D
24.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
FC Tokyo
2
5
L
11.04.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
JEF United Chiba
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kashiwa Reysol
0
3
L
07.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Urawa
0
2
L
01.03.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Kawasaki Frontale
2
2
D
14.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
08.02.26
J1
Mito Hollyhock
Tokyo Verdy
1
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
Mito Hollyhock
Sagan Tosu
2
4
L
H2H away: Mito Hollyhock
30.05.26
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
L
23.11.25
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
2
1
L
03.08.24
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
2
W
03.05.23
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
4
0
L
27.04.22
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
1
0
L
30.10.21
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
2
1
L
01.11.20
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
4
1
L
09.03.19
H2H
V-varen Nagasaki
Mito Hollyhock
0
1
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
W W W W W
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
W L W L W
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
L W W L W
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
W W W L W
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
W L W W W
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
L L W W W
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
W W L W L
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
W W W L L
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
L W L L L
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
W L L W L
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
L L W W W
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
L W W L W
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
W L L L L
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
L L W W W
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
W W W L L
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
W L L L L
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
L L L L W
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
L W L W L
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
L L L W L
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
L L W L W