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NETHERLANDS › EREDIVISIE
11.10.2026 10:15
Stadion Galgenwaard
Referee: Jannick van der Laan
Utrecht
Match Timeline
Willem II
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
45'
Yoann Cathline
Utrecht
⚽
53'
Y. Cathline · Assist: D. de Wit
Utrecht
⚽
60'
J. Slory · Assist: V. van Crooij
Willem II
🔄
68'
A. Zagre ↔ P. Kloosterboer
Utrecht
🔄
68'
N. Vesterlund ↔ A. Alarcon
Utrecht
🔄
72'
T. Vilhena ↔ A. Zarrouk
Willem II
🔄
72'
J. Slory ↔ E. Gurbuz
Willem II
⚽
75'
Y. Cathline · Assist: O. Agougil
Utrecht
🟨
80'
Nikolas Panagiotou
Utrecht
🔄
81'
N. Tjoe a On ↔ A. Ciranni
Willem II
🔄
81'
V. van Crooij ↔ T. Verheydt
Willem II
🔄
82'
O. Agougil ↔ D. van den Berg
Utrecht
🔄
82'
M. Broholm ↔ A. Blake
Utrecht
🔄
88'
U. van Aalst ↔ C. Obi
Willem II
🔄
90+3'
Y. Cathline ↔ S. van Duijn
Utrecht
⚽
90'
A. Alarcon · Assist: A. Blake
Utrecht

Utrecht vs Willem II Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Utrecht Win 40.7%
Draw 7.7%
Willem II Win 51.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Utrecht1.66
Willem II1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Utrecht Utrecht
L W D L D
9 GF / 18 GA
Willem II Willem II
L L D L D
4 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.25
Average Goals Scored
1.09
2.58
Average Goals Conceded
2.27
8
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
8
4
Shots on Goal
2.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Utrecht Utrecht 12 matches
Willem II Willem II 11 matches
Utrecht Statistic Willem II
2 Wins 2
2 Draws 3
8 Losses 6
15 Goals For 12
31 Goals Against 25
1.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
2.58 Avg Goals Conceded 2.27
8 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 5
0 Clean Sheets 1
4 Failed To Score 2
4 Shots On Goal 2.71
10.86 Total Shots 11.86
3.29 Corners 4
43.7% Ball Possession 38.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Utrecht expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Willem II in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Willem II having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Willem II. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Willem II arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Utrecht Analysis

With 5 points from 7 games and a place of 15, Utrecht still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 11:24 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Artem Stepanov (3 goals), D. de Wit (2 goals), M. Didden (2 goals), with creative support from N. Vesterlund (2 assists), D. van den Berg (2 assists), Y. Cathline (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Willem II Analysis

Willem II sit 18 with 2 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 6:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Haen (3 goals), Uriel van Aalst (1 goals), A. Ciranni (1 goals), with creative support from Uriel van Aalst (2 assists), N. Tjoe-A-On (2 assists), H. ter Avest (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Utrecht won 11 times, Willem II won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:16 from Utrecht's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)
Predicted formations: Utrecht 5-4-1 / Willem II 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Utrecht 6, Willem II 5
H2H summary: Utrecht wins 11, draws 1, Willem II wins 3

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 2 0 31:10 21 23
W W W W W
2 9 6 2 1 20:10 10 20
D L W D W
3 9 6 1 2 27:12 15 19
L W L W W
4 9 5 3 1 27:12 15 18
W D D W W
5 9 5 2 2 17:10 7 17
L D W W W
6 9 4 3 2 16:17 -1 15
D D W L W
7 9 4 2 3 22:19 3 14
L W W D D
8 10 3 5 2 23:23 0 14
W L D D D
9 9 3 3 3 15:11 4 12
W L W D L
10 9 3 2 4 16:18 -2 11
L L D L D
11 9 3 2 4 16:26 -10 11
W W L W D
12 9 2 4 3 15:16 -1 10
D D D L D
13 9 2 3 4 16:22 -6 9
W D L L D
14 9 2 3 4 13:21 -8 9
D W D W D
15 9 2 1 6 10:22 -12 7
W L L L D
16 9 1 3 5 11:20 -9 6
W D D L L
17 10 1 3 6 12:21 -9 6
L L D L D
18 9 0 2 7 9:26 -17 2
L L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Eredivisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie