NETHERLANDS EREDIVISIE
--.--.---- --:--
Stadion Galgenwaard
Referee: A. Bos
Utrecht
Match Timeline
NAC Breda
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
34'
Mohamed Nassoh
NAC Breda
🟥
35'
Mohamed Nassoh
NAC Breda
🟨
40'
Maximilien Balard
NAC Breda
🔄
46'
M. Eerdhuijzen ↔ J. Karlsson
Utrecht
🔄
65'
A. Stepanov ↔ S. Haller
Utrecht
🔄
66'
A. Alarcon ↔ A. Blake
Utrecht
🔄
72'
C. Valerius ↔ R. Hillen
NAC Breda
🔄
72'
A. Ayew ↔ M. Soumano
NAC Breda
🔄
74'
N. Vesterlund ↔ S. Horemans
Utrecht
🔄
81'
L. Holtby ↔ J. Candelaria
NAC Breda
🟨
82'
Daniel Bielica
NAC Breda
86'
D. de Wit · Assist: J. Karlsson
Utrecht
VAR
88'
Dani De Wit
Utrecht
🔄
89'
D. de Wit ↔ D. Min
Utrecht
🔄
90+4'
Y. Cathline ↔ C. Bozdogan
Utrecht
🔄
90'
E. Mahmutovic ↔ R. Paula
NAC Breda
🔄
90'
M. Balard ↔ B. Ghalidi
NAC Breda
🔄
90+4'
K. Sowah ↔ P. Reulen
NAC Breda
90'
A. Blake · Assist: D. Min
Utrecht

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 84.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 33.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 33.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
84.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
33.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
33.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Utrecht Win 84.6%
Draw 5.4%
NAC Breda Win 10%
Expected Goals (xG)
Utrecht1.59
NAC Breda1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Utrecht Utrecht
WWDLW
68 GF / 60 GA
NAC Breda NAC Breda
WLDWL
30 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.51
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.71
27
BTTS Yes
15
23
Over 2.5
16
4.4
Shots on Goal
4.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Utrecht Utrecht 45 matches
NAC Breda NAC Breda 31 matches
Utrecht Statistic NAC Breda
17 Wins 5
10 Draws 10
18 Losses 16
68 Goals For 30
60 Goals Against 53
1.51 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.71
27 BTTS Yes 15
36 Over 1.5 21
23 Over 2.5 16
15 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 5
11 Failed To Score 13
4.4 Shots On Goal 4.1
12.27 Total Shots 14.03
4.33 Corners 5.77
41.8% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Utrecht's more proactive style and NAC Breda's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Utrecht arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 44 points compared to NAC Breda in 17 on 25, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors NAC Breda. NAC Breda arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Utrecht Analysis

Utrecht are currently 8 in the standings with 44 points from 31 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 49:41 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by G. Zechiel (8 goals), D. de Wit (5 goals), V. Jensen (5 goals), with creative support from Souffian El Karouani (10 assists), G. Zechiel (4 assists), Y. Cathline (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

NAC Breda Analysis

NAC Breda approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 25 points from 31 matches. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 30:53 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Mohamed Nassoh (5 goals), Sydney van Hooijdonk (5 goals), Boy Kemper (3 goals), with creative support from L. Holtby (5 assists), C. Brym (4 assists), Boy Kemper (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Utrecht won 8 times, NAC Breda won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:21 from Utrecht's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Utrecht 4-2-3-1 / NAC Breda 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Utrecht wins 8, draws 4, NAC Breda wins 3
Stats
Utrecht Utrecht
NAC Breda NAC Breda
Shots on Goal
11
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
1
8 Corner Kicks 4
12 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 0
66% Ball Possession 34%
28 Total Shots 9
11 Shots on Goal 1
10 Shots off Goal 7
7 Blocked Shots 1
19 Shots insidebox 7
9 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 9
504 Total passes 262
444 Passes accurate 180
2.90 expected_goals 0.45
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Utrecht
Formation
NAC Breda
V. Barkas
V. Barkas
N. Vesterlund
N. Vesterlund
M. van der Hoorn
M. van der Hoorn
M. Eerdhuijzen
M. Eerdhuijzen
S. El Karouani
S. El Karouani
A. Engwanda
A. Engwanda
D. de Wit
D. de Wit
G. Zechiel
G. Zechiel
A. Alarcon
A. Alarcon
A. Stepanov
A. Stepanov
Y. Cathline
Y. Cathline
D. Bielica
D. Bielica
D. Odoi
D. Odoi
E. Mahmutovic
E. Mahmutovic
C. Leemans
C. Leemans
B. Kemper
B. Kemper
C. Valerius
C. Valerius
M. Nassoh
M. Nassoh
M. Balard
M. Balard
K. Sowah
K. Sowah
L. Holtby
L. Holtby
A. Ayew
A. Ayew
Utrecht 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
V. Barkas
G
23
N. Vesterlund
↓ 74'
D
3
M. van der Hoorn
D
44
M. Eerdhuijzen
↓ 46'
D
16
S. El Karouani
D
27
A. Engwanda
M
20
D. de Wit
⚽ 86' ↓ 89'
M
21
G. Zechiel
M
77
A. Alarcon
↓ 66'
F
18
A. Stepanov
↓ 65'
F
10
Y. Cathline
↓ 90+4'
F
Substitutes
33
K. Gadellaa
G
51
M. Eppink
G
24
N. Viergever
D
11
J. Karlsson
🎯 86' ↑ 46'
F
15
A. Blake
⚽ 90' ↑ 66'
F
5
E. Adiele
D
91
S. Haller
↑ 65'
F
2
S. Horemans
↑ 74'
D
8
C. Bozdogan
↑ 90+4'
M
9
D. Min
🎯 90' ↑ 89'
F
53
N. Viereck
D
NAC Breda 4-4-2
Starting XI
99
D. Bielica
🟨 82'
G
3
D. Odoi
D
15
E. Mahmutovic
↓ 90'
D
8
C. Leemans
D
4
B. Kemper
D
25
C. Valerius
↓ 72'
M
10
M. Nassoh
🟥 35'
M
16
M. Balard
↓ 90' 🟨 40'
M
14
K. Sowah
↓ 90+4'
M
90
L. Holtby
↓ 81'
F
24
A. Ayew
↓ 72'
F
Substitutes
31
K. Lamprou
G
1
R. Kortsmit
G
22
R. Hillen
↑ 72'
D
7
C. Brym
F
11
R. Paula
↑ 90'
M
32
J. Talvitie
F
55
B. Ghalidi
↑ 90'
F
19
A. Salama
F
9
M. Soumano
↑ 72'
F
21
J. Candelaria
↑ 81'
D
26
P. Reulen
↑ 90+4'
F
Last matches: Utrecht
24.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Cambuur
0
1
L
17.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Apollon Limassol
0
1
L
27.06.26
Fri
Utrecht
De Graafschap
1
2
L
24.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
0
0
D
21.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Excelsior
0
5
L
11.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Telstar
4
1
W
04.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
3
4
L
22.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
2
0
W
15.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Twente
2
0
W
06.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heracles
0
0
D
01.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
1
1
D
14.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Groningen
2
1
W
11.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
3
1
W
08.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Feyenoord
0
1
L
01.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
1
1
D
Last matches: NAC Breda
25.07.26
Fri
NAC Breda
Lokeren-Temse
2
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
NAC Breda
Excelsior
1
3
L
15.07.26
Fri
NAC Breda
Hoek
2
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
NAC Breda
FC Eindhoven
0
2
L
17.05.26
Ere
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
3
3
D
11.05.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
2
0
W
25.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Ajax
0
2
L
12.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Fortuna Sittard
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Sparta Rotterdam
0
0
D
21.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
PEC Zwolle
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
GO Ahead Eagles
0
6
L
08.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
3
3
D
27.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Telstar
0
3
L
21.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
1
0
W
14.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Heracles
1
0
W
06.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Excelsior
0
2
L
30.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Twente
2
2
D
24.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
PSV Eindhoven
2
2
D
17.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
NEC Nijmegen
3
4
L
10.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Groningen
0
0
D
H2H: Utrecht vs NAC Breda
02.05.26
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
W
14.12.25
H2H
NAC Breda
Utrecht
1
1
D
01.03.25
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
1
0
W
24.08.24
H2H
NAC Breda
Utrecht
1
2
W
14.12.21
H2H
NAC Breda
Utrecht
3
2
L
16.03.19
H2H
NAC Breda
Utrecht
0
4
W
05.10.18
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
1
W
23.12.17
H2H
NAC Breda
Utrecht
3
1
L
29.10.17
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
2
D
20.03.15
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
3
4
L
29.11.14
H2H
NAC Breda
Utrecht
1
5
W
28.03.14
H2H
NAC Breda
Utrecht
2
2
D
19.10.13
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
4
2
W
21.04.13
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
3
0
W
01.09.12
H2H
NAC Breda
Utrecht
1
1
D
Last matches: Utrecht
17.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
V-varen Nagasaki
3
2
W
07.07.26
Fri
Utrecht
Apollon Limassol
0
1
L
27.06.26
Fri
Utrecht
De Graafschap
1
2
L
21.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
3
2
W
17.05.26
Ere
Utrecht
Fortuna Sittard
2
0
W
11.04.26
Ere
Utrecht
Telstar
4
1
W
22.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
GO Ahead Eagles
2
0
W
01.03.26
Ere
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
2
0
W
22.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
1
1
D
08.02.26
Ere
Utrecht
Feyenoord
0
1
L
25.01.26
Ere
Utrecht
Sparta Rotterdam
0
1
L
22.01.26
UEF
Utrecht
Genk
0
2
L
21.12.25
Ere
Utrecht
PSV Eindhoven
1
2
L
11.12.25
UEF
Utrecht
Nottingham Forest
1
2
L
07.12.25
Ere
Utrecht
Twente
1
1
D
09.11.25
Ere
Utrecht
Ajax
2
1
W
06.11.25
UEF
Utrecht
FC Porto
1
1
D
02.11.25
Ere
Utrecht
NEC Nijmegen
1
0
W
18.10.25
Ere
Utrecht
FC Volendam
3
1
W
28.09.25
Ere
Utrecht
Heerenveen
2
2
D
H2H at home: Utrecht
02.05.26
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
W
01.03.25
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
1
0
W
05.10.18
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
1
W
29.10.17
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
2
D
20.03.15
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
3
4
L
19.10.13
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
4
2
W
21.04.13
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
3
0
W
Last matches: NAC Breda
25.07.26
Fri
NAC Breda
Lokeren-Temse
2
1
W
15.07.26
Fri
NAC Breda
Hoek
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ere
NAC Breda
AZ Alkmaar
3
3
D
12.04.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Fortuna Sittard
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
PEC Zwolle
1
2
L
15.03.26
Ere
NAC Breda
GO Ahead Eagles
0
6
L
27.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Telstar
0
3
L
14.02.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Heracles
1
0
W
24.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
PSV Eindhoven
2
2
D
10.01.26
Ere
NAC Breda
Groningen
0
0
D
07.12.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Sparta Rotterdam
0
1
L
29.11.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Excelsior
0
1
L
08.11.25
Ere
NAC Breda
FC Volendam
1
2
L
24.10.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Heerenveen
3
3
D
27.09.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Ajax
1
2
L
13.09.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Twente
2
2
D
24.08.25
Ere
NAC Breda
NEC Nijmegen
0
3
L
09.08.25
Ere
NAC Breda
Feyenoord
0
2
L
H2H away: NAC Breda
02.05.26
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
0
L
01.03.25
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
1
0
L
05.10.18
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
1
L
29.10.17
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
2
2
D
20.03.15
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
3
4
W
19.10.13
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
4
2
L
21.04.13
H2H
Utrecht
NAC Breda
3
0
L

Standings

Eredivisie
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 27 3 4 101:45 56 84
W W D W W
2 34 19 8 7 70:44 26 65
W D W W D
3 34 16 11 7 77:53 24 59
W L D D D
4 34 15 13 6 59:40 19 58
L W D D W
5 34 14 14 6 62:41 21 56
D L D W W
6 34 15 8 11 55:42 13 53
W W W L W
7 34 14 10 10 58:51 7 52
D D D D W
8 34 14 9 11 57:53 4 51
D L W W L
9 34 14 6 14 49:45 4 48
W W L L D
10 34 12 7 15 40:62 -22 43
L L D L L
11 34 11 6 17 49:63 -14 39
L W L L D
12 34 8 14 12 54:53 1 38
L L D D D
13 34 10 8 16 43:56 -13 38
W D W W D
14 34 9 10 15 49:55 -6 37
W W D W L
15 34 9 10 15 44:71 -27 37
L L W L D
16 34 8 8 18 35:55 -20 32
L D L W L
17 34 6 11 17 35:58 -23 29
D W L L D
18 34 5 4 25 35:85 -50 19
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Conference League - Play Offs)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Eerste Divisie (Relegation)
Relegation - Eerste Divisie