29.08.2026 20:30
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Referee: Jordi Espinoza, Peru
UTC Cajamarca
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
L. Arce · Assist: M. Lliuya
UTC Cajamarca
20'
A. Arroyo · Assist: D. Camacho
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
24'
Abdiel Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
29'
A. Quiroz ↔ P. A. Quispe Cordova
Universitario
🟨
32'
Arquímedes Figuera
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
45'
Luis Garro
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
45+2'
Juan Manuel Requena
Universitario
45'
J. Concha
Universitario
🔄
46'
I. Barrios ↔ R. Bettocchi
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
46'
C. Fara ↔ A. Santamaria
Universitario
🔄
57'
J. Huerto ↔ D. Caro
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
61'
Anderson Santamaría
Universitario
🔄
63'
L. Garro ↔ G. Paredes
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
66'
J. Requena ↔ J. Murrugarra
Universitario
🔄
66'
G. Lapadula ↔ L. Alzugaray
Universitario
73'
W. Riveros · Assist: J. Concha
Universitario
77'
A. Valera · Assist: C. Inga
Universitario
80'
A. Polo · Assist: L. Alzugaray
Universitario
🔄
81'
B. Duarte ↔ J. Cantt
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
81'
A. Arroyo ↔ M. de Jesus
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
83'
C. Inga ↔ J. Gutierrez
Universitario
🟨
84'
David Camacho
UTC Cajamarca

UTC Cajamarca vs Universitario Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.6%
Odds 2.03
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.02
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.6%
2.03
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.02
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71%
1.44
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
UTC Cajamarca Win 22.7%
Draw 8.7%
Universitario Win 68.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
UTC Cajamarca1.02
Universitario1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
WWDLW
27 GF / 39 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
48 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.45
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
15
BTTS Yes
16
12
Over 2.5
16
4.13
Shots on Goal
4.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 25 matches
Universitario Universitario 33 matches
UTC Cajamarca Statistic Universitario
5 Wins 16
9 Draws 9
11 Losses 8
27 Goals For 48
39 Goals Against 31
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.45
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
15 BTTS Yes 16
19 Over 1.5 23
12 Over 2.5 16
9 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 13
7 Failed To Score 10
4.13 Shots On Goal 4.07
12.26 Total Shots 13.28
4.65 Corners 5.59
51.3% Ball Possession 51.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Universitario's more proactive style and UTC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with UTC Cajamarca expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Universitario in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Universitario. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. UTC Cajamarca have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Universitario carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 39 points while UTC Cajamarca sit 18 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

UTC Cajamarca approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 15 points from 22 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 10 defeats with a 24:35 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Marcos Lliuya (3 goals), Michel Rasmussen (3 goals), Abdiel Arroyo (2 goals), with creative support from Marcos Lliuya (2 assists), Michel Rasmussen (2 assists), Adolfo Muñoz (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universitario Analysis

Universitario approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 39 points after 22 outings. With 11 wins, 6 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 32:22, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Alex Valera (6 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), Gianluca Lapadula (3 goals), with creative support from Alex Valera (2 assists), Edison Flores (2 assists), Jairo Concha (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, UTC Cajamarca won 2 times, Universitario won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:23 from UTC Cajamarca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.43 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.3%)
Predicted formations: UTC Cajamarca 4-1-4-1 / Universitario 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: UTC Cajamarca wins 2, draws 3, Universitario wins 9

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2