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23.10.2026 18:00
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Referee: Junior Rivera, Peru
UTC Cajamarca
Match Timeline
FBC Melgar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Bernardo Cuesta · Assist: Walter Tandazo
FBC Melgar
🟨
34'
David Dioses
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
34'
Manuel Ganoza
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
45+3'
Bernardo Cuesta ↔ Jefferson Caceres
FBC Melgar
🔄
45'
Walter Tandazo ↔ Marcos Portillo
FBC Melgar
🔄
45'
Marlon de Jesús ↔ Abdiel Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
45'
Francesco Cavagna ↔ Dylan Caro
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
51'
Miguel Rondelli
FBC Melgar
🔄
61'
David Dioses ↔ Joshua Cantt
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
64'
Juan Escobar
FBC Melgar
⚽
68'
Nicolas Quagliata · Assist: Nelson Cabanillas
FBC Melgar
🔄
70'
Luis Arce ↔ Jhosep Nunez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
70'
David Camacho ↔ Gilmar Paredes
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
74'
Joshua Cantt
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
75'
Nicolas Quagliata ↔ Jesús Alcantar
FBC Melgar
🔄
81'
Johnny Vidales ↔ Franco Zanelatto
FBC Melgar
⚽
87'
Luis Garro · Assist: Adolfo Muñoz
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
90'
Jesús Alcantar
FBC Melgar
🟨
90+3'
Cristian Bordacahar
FBC Melgar

UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 82.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
82.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
UTC Cajamarca Win 8.4%
Draw 9.3%
FBC Melgar Win 82.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
UTC Cajamarca1.11
FBC Melgar1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
L L L L L
5 GF / 10 GA
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
W D D W W
11 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.71
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
19
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
19
4.45
Shots on Goal
5.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 31 matches
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 34 matches
UTC Cajamarca Statistic FBC Melgar
5 Wins 16
9 Draws 10
17 Losses 8
34 Goals For 58
53 Goals Against 38
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.71 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
19 BTTS Yes 22
23 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 19
12 Over 3.5 12
5 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 5
4.45 Shots On Goal 5.28
12.69 Total Shots 15.83
4.21 Corners 5.21
49.2% Ball Possession 55.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by FBC Melgar's more proactive style and UTC Cajamarca's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. UTC Cajamarca have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward FBC Melgar. FBC Melgar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 47 points while UTC Cajamarca sit 18 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

With 15 points from 28 games and a place of 18, UTC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 32:51, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through M. Rasmussen (4 goals), M. Lliuya (3 goals), A. Arroyo (3 goals), with creative support from M. Lliuya (3 assists), M. Rasmussen (2 assists), D. Camacho (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FBC Melgar Analysis

Placed 4 with 47 points from 28 outings, FBC Melgar continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 13 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 47:31 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by B. Cuesta (9 goals), J. Vidales (9 goals), N. Quagliata (4 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (10 assists), B. Cuesta (3 assists), Matias Zegarra (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, UTC Cajamarca won 3 times, FBC Melgar won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:22 from UTC Cajamarca's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1 / FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UTC Cajamarca wins 3, draws 4, FBC Melgar wins 7

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 20 8 4 53:23 30 68
W L W W W
2 32 17 9 6 57:37 20 60
D W W W D
3 33 16 9 8 56:38 18 57
W L D W W
4 32 16 6 10 50:35 15 54
W L W L L
5 33 15 6 12 63:48 15 51
D W W L W
6 33 16 3 14 46:47 -1 51
L L W W L
7 33 15 5 13 54:46 8 50
L L W L W
8 33 15 5 13 48:49 -1 50
W W L W W
9 33 14 7 12 49:48 1 49
L W W L L
10 32 13 8 11 39:51 -12 47
D L L W D
11 32 12 9 11 37:35 2 45
D W W L L
12 33 11 8 14 48:59 -11 41
L L W L W
13 33 10 7 16 32:41 -9 37
W L L D L
14 32 8 12 12 44:47 -3 36
D D W L D
15 33 7 11 15 36:48 -12 32
D D W D L
16 33 8 7 18 46:65 -19 31
W L L L L
17 32 7 8 17 25:46 -21 29
D L L W L
18 32 5 8 19 38:58 -20 18
L W L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2