22.08.2026 18:15
Estadio Heroes de San Ramon
Referee: R. Guadalupe Cardenas Morales
UTC Cajamarca
Match Timeline
Comerciantes Unidos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
R. Vilca · Assist: W. Ayovi
Comerciantes Unidos
27'
D. Camacho
UTC Cajamarca
🟥
36'
Manuel Ganoza
UTC Cajamarca
VAR
42'
Flavio Alcedo
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
46'
G. Paredes ↔ L. Garro
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
46'
M. de Jesus ↔ F. Cavagna
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
46'
J. Herrera ↔ O. Pinto
Comerciantes Unidos
VAR
52'
Juan Rodríguez
Comerciantes Unidos
55'
R. Vilca
Comerciantes Unidos
🟨
57'
Joshua Cantt
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
60'
J. Cantt ↔ L. Arce
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
60'
M. Lliuya ↔ J. Nunez
UTC Cajamarca
VAR
68'
Fabio Rojas
Comerciantes Unidos
71'
E. M. Perez Azambuya
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
72'
W. Ayovi ↔ Jhon Sanchez
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
72'
R. Vilca ↔ J. Olivares
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
72'
E. M. Perez Azambuya ↔ M. Sen
Comerciantes Unidos
🔄
76'
A. Arias ↔ J. Parodi
Comerciantes Unidos
VAR
89'
Jhosep Nuñez
UTC Cajamarca

UTC Cajamarca vs Comerciantes Unidos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 42.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
42.8%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
85.5%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
UTC Cajamarca Win 41.3%
Draw 15.9%
Comerciantes Unidos Win 42.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
UTC Cajamarca1.16
Comerciantes Unidos1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
WWDLW
26 GF / 36 GA
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos
WLDWL
28 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1.17
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
14
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
10
4.23
Shots on Goal
4.27

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 24 matches
Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 24 matches
UTC Cajamarca Statistic Comerciantes Unidos
5 Wins 6
9 Draws 9
10 Losses 9
26 Goals For 28
36 Goals Against 31
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1.17
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
14 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 10
8 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 5
7 Failed To Score 7
4.23 Shots On Goal 4.27
12.18 Total Shots 13
4.59 Corners 3.45
51.2% Ball Possession 46.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Comerciantes Unidos. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with UTC Cajamarca expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Comerciantes Unidos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Comerciantes Unidos having the stronger overall control.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

With 15 points from 21 games and a place of 18, UTC Cajamarca still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 24:34, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Marcos Lliuya (3 goals), Michel Rasmussen (2 goals), Abdiel Arroyo (2 goals), with creative support from Marcos Lliuya (2 assists), Michel Rasmussen (2 assists), Adolfo Muñoz (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Comerciantes Unidos Analysis

So far, Comerciantes Unidos have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 21 matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 27:28 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Matías Sen (5 goals), Josuee Herrera (2 goals), Juan Rodríguez (2 goals), with creative support from Josuee Herrera (3 assists), Rodrigo Vilca (3 assists), Mathías Carpio (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, UTC Cajamarca won 8 times, Comerciantes Unidos won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:16 from UTC Cajamarca's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.1%)
Predicted formations: UTC Cajamarca 4-1-4-1 / Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UTC Cajamarca wins 8, draws 3, Comerciantes Unidos wins 4

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 10 5 12 37:44 -7 35
W W W W L
12 27 9 7 11 42:52 -10 34
W W D W W
13 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 27 6 7 14 24:41 -17 25
L L L L W
17 26 5 7 14 27:41 -14 22
L L L L D
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2